The Professor is back! I was not able to have the strong finish to the season that I had hoped for. I went 2-3 in Week 14. My picks of Washington and San Diego State won, but my picks of South Alabama, and Clemson lost.
So, I am finishing a disappointing 29-38-3 (0.414) on the season. Not the performance I had hoped for, but I am chalking that up to this being my rookie season as The Professor. I have decided that The Professor will return next season (and try for a better performance).
The college football regular season may be done, but there is still plenty of action. I like the tradition of the Army-Navy game having its own weekend (if you don't count FCS playoffs). There are also many, many bowl games to come.
Here are my predictions for the Army-Navy game and each bowl. I am adding my predictions for the over/under to my normal predictions against the line.
Lines and over/unders for the bowl games are from: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football-bowls/odds-lines/
Army +6.5 vs. Navy (neutral site) (Saturday at 3 P.M. Eastern Time Zone) Under 47
One of the main reasons why Navy got blown out this past weekend in the American Athletic Conference Championship game was their inability to stop Temple's run game.
This game features two of the top three running teams in the country, both averaging over 325 rushing yards per game. I am adding the over/under since this is the only game this week. I am taking the under because I anticipate several long drives, and therefore not that many scoring opportunities.
The difference will be the two run defenses. Army's run defense is ranked 19th in the FBS, giving up 124.4 rushing yards per game. Whereas, Navy's run defense 67th in the FBS 176.3 rushing yards per game.
Also, Navy will have a new starting quarterback, Zach Abbey, who started the season as the third-string quarterback but will start this important game due to injuries to the two quarterbacks above him in the depth chart, including Will Worth whose injury came in the conference championship game against Temple this past weekend. Abbey's inexperience running the triple option offense, which depends on quick quarterback reads, will hinder Navy.
The Black Knights prevail, ending Navy's 14-game winning streak in this rivalry and finally get to sing their alma mater second. Regardless, it is a great showcase of our nation's finest young men.
There are far too many bowl games for me to analyze, so I will just give you my predictions for each game. I will give you my prediction against the line, as well as my prediction for the over/under.
New Mexico Bowl (December 17)
New Mexico -7 vs. Texas-San Antonio Under 62.5
Las Vegas Bowl (December 17)
San Diego State +3 vs. Houston Under 57
Camelia Bowl (December 17)
Toledo -1 vs. Appalachian State Over 56.5
Cure Bowl (December 17) (That's right; Central Michigan and Arkansas State's playing in this game is supposed to somehow raise awareness for breast cancer)
Central Florida -5.5 vs. Arkansas State Over 49
New Orleans Bowl (December 17)
Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5 vs. Southern Mississippi Under 58
Miami Beach Bowl (December 19)
Tulsa -11.5 vs. Central Michigan Over 68
Boca Raton Bowl (December 20)
Western Kentucky -4.5 vs. Memphis Over 77
Poinsettia Bowl (December 21)
Wyoming +8.5 vs. BYU Under 57
Potato Bowl (December 22)
Idaho +13.5 vs. Colorado State (come on, how can you not take Idaho in the Potato Bowl?) Under 64
Bahamas Bowl (December 23)
Eastern Michigan +3 vs. Old Dominion Over 64 (So, you didn't make the playoff, but you get to go to the Bahamas, not a bad consolation)
Armed Forces Bowl (December 23)
Louisiana Tech +1.5 vs. Navy
Dollar General Bowl (December 23) (proof that the NCAA will let anybody sponsor a bowl game)
Ohio +3.5 vs. Troy Over 48.5
Hawaii Bowl (December 24)
Between Hawaii and Middle Tennessee State, but the website appears to have omitted this game, which is not bad considering the quantity of bowl games and that this is the only one they missed.
St. Petersburg Bowl (December 26)
Mississippi State -12.5 vs. Miami (Ohio) Over 58
Quick Lane Bowl (December 26) (more proof that the NCAA will let anybody sponsor a bowl game)
Boston College +2 vs. Maryland Under 44.5
Independence Bowl (December 26)
Vanderbilt +4.5 vs. North Carolina State Over 44
Heart of Dallas Bowl (December 27)
Army -9 vs. North Texas (for some reason the website does not show an over/under number for this game)
Military Bowl (December 27) (which is somehow different than the Armed Forces Bowl being played four days prior)
Temple -12.5 vs. Wake Forest Over 41
Holiday Bowl (December 27)
Washington State -6.5 vs. Minnesota Over 60
Cactus Bowl (December 27)
Boise State -7.5 vs. Baylor Over 66.5
Pinstripe Bowl (December 28)
Pittsburgh -5 vs. Northwestern Under 66.5
Russell Athletic Bowl (December 28)
West Virginia +3 vs. Miami (Florida) Over 56.5
Foster Farms Bowl (December 28)
Utah -8 vs. Indiana Over 54
Texas Bowl (December 28)
Texas A&M -2 vs. Kansas State Under 56.5
Birmingham Bowl (December 29)
South Florida -10.5 vs. South Carolina Over 62.5
Belk Bowl (December 29)
Virginia Tech -7 vs. Arkansas Under 62.5
Alamo Bowl (December 29)
Oklahoma State +3 vs. Colorado Over 62.5
Arizona Bowl (December 30)
Air Force -12.5 vs. South Alabama Over 57.5
Liberty Bowl (December 30)
Georgia -1 vs. TCU Under 49
Sun Bowl (December 30)
Stanford -3.5 vs. North Carolina Under 54
Music City Bowl (December 30)
Tennessee -3 vs. Nebraska Under 61
Orange Bowl (December 30)
Michigan -7 vs. Florida State Over 56
Peach Bowl (December 31)
Washington +16.5 vs. Alabama Under 54.5
Fiesta Bowl (December 31)
Ohio State -3.5 vs Clemson Over 61.5
Taxslayer Bowl (December 31) (more proof that the NCAA will let anybody sponsor a bowl, or maybe just that they are desperate for bowl game sponsors)
Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Kentucky Under 60.5
Citrus Bowl (December 31) (the cheaper knock-off of the Orange Bowl)
Louisville +3.5 vs. LSU Under 60
Outback Bowl (January 2)
Florida -2.5 vs. Iowa Under 40.5
Cotton Bowl (January 2)
Western Michigan +7.5 vs. Wisconsin Under 54
Rose Bowl (January 2)
Penn State +7 vs. USC Over 63
Sugar Bowl (January 2)
Oklahoma -4.5 vs. Auburn Over 62.5
College Football Playoff National Championship (January 9)
There is no line on this game right now, since the teams that are playing in this game have yet to be determined, but I think that Alabama will play Ohio State for the National Championship in Tampa, and my prediction for the final score is Alabama 31-Ohio State 17
Thanks for being a fan of The Professor. Enjoy bowl season! Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!
Friday, December 9, 2016
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Week 14
The Professor is back! Now that's what I'm talking about! It took 13 weeks, but I finally had my first 4-1 week. After all the games that I was way off on, it felt good to nail that Mississippi State pick.
I was able to accomplish my goal of saving face a little bit. My record for the season is now a slightly more respectable 27-35-3.
Conference Championship Week (which includes some games that are not conference championships) should feature lots of interesting games.
I would still like a better overall record, so here are my Week 14 picks:
As usual, all lines come from Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18163759/college-football-full-list-week-14-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook. All times are Eastern Time Zone.
Colorado +7 at Washington (Friday at 9 P.M. (Pac-12 Championship)
You don't have to wait for Saturday to be treated to an exciting game. This matchup to see who is the best in the West (somehow Colorado qualifies as the West), which features two top-10 teams with a combined three losses should be a treat.
I'll admit I was skeptical when Washington was ranked 14th in the AP Preseason rankings, but I am now a full-on believer. Washington has demonstrated their dominance on both sides of the ball. I know the loss to USC may have damaged Jake Browning's stock a little bit, but I would take him to lead my team over any other quarterback. Not only are his yardage and touchdown totals amazing, but he makes good decisions. I have seen this repeatedly by watching him, and it is reinforced by the fact that he has only 7 interceptions to his 40 passing touchdowns.
Add to that the fact that Washington is tied for tenth in the FBS in scoring defense and is 17th in total defense. The Huskies rank 11th in the FBS in third down defense. They also lead the FBS in turnovers forced and are tied for first in turnover margin.
Colorado is having their best season in quite a while. The Buffaloes are on a six-game winning streak. They have won their past three games, which have all been against strong Pac-12 teams. However, they gave up over 20 points in each of those victories. They are facing a better offense and a better team this week, which I don't think they can handle.
A team that puts up the numbers that Washington does on offense, defense, with turnovers, and on third downs, is going to be hard to beat. Huskies take the 2016 Pac-12 crown.
I don't think Washington will get much respect from the media when going against a Big-10 or SEC team in the College Football Playoff, but I think they are as talented as any team in the country*.
*not named Alabama
Temple +3 at Navy (Saturday at noon) (Conference USA Championship)
Navy is the second best rushing team in the FBS. The Midshipmen are averaging a mind-blowing 342 rushing yards per game this season. That statistic alone demonstrates their dominance. Incredibly, despite ranking 20th in the FBS in time of possession (as you might expect), Navy ranks 11in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 42.3 points per game.
Navy has shown that they can contain and outscore high-powered spread offenses. Their past two games, 66-31 and 75-31 wins over Eastern Carolina and SMU, bode well. The Temple team runs a similar offense to those two teams, and the points that Navy put up in each of those games should speak for itself about their offensive capabilities.
The triple option offense that Navy runs is hard to contain (as well as fun to watch). Temple lost 28-13 to Army, another triple option team, in the opening week. In that loss to Army, Temple gave up 329 rushing yards and was out-possessed by over ten minutes. Navy's triple option is better than Army's (though I am excited to see the two teams go head-to-head next week). Based on that performance and Navy's performance throughout this season, I think the home fans in Annapolis are going to be happy.
The Midshipmen win the Conference USA Championship in an impressive show of offensive dominance. Anchors Aweigh!
New Mexico State +11.5 at South Alabama (Saturday at 1 P.M.)
Why not pick an absolute meaningless game between two sub-par teams on Conference Championship Week?
New Mexico State ranks in the bottom eight of the FBS (128 teams) in both total defense and scoring defense. South Alabama ranks in the top 49 in the FBS in both categories. The two teams have similar offensive statistics.
The Aggies have three wins; Jaguars have five. The Aggies only victory over anything resembling a quality team came in Week 2 over inter-state rival New Mexico. The Jaguars have two wins over highly talented teams (Mississippi State and San Diego State).
New Mexico State's extremely weak defense is the main reason why I feel confident giving the points in this game. South Alabama playing for bowl eligibility, which could add extra motivation.
I can't say I'll be watching this game, but I am confident that South Alabama will win this Sun Belt matchup by at least 12 points.
San Diego State +7 at Wyoming (Saturday at 7:45 P.M.) (Mountain West Championship)
I do plan on watching the Mountain West Championship game. Both teams are talented, and San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey is a sight to watch! Pumphrey enters this game with 1,908 rushing yards this season and is third on the NCAA all-time career rushing yards list. If you haven't seen any of his highlights, you need to.
Wyoming has a strong run game also. Their running back, Brian Hill has 1,674 rushing yards. The Cowboys have 2,615 rushing yards as a team (the Aztecs have 3,311 rushing yards as a team. Wyoming has the 33rd most rushing yards per game in the FBS; San Diego State has the seventh most rushing yards per game.
So, both teams have strong running attacks, and I don't think these differences in rushing statistics is that significant. However, what I believe is highly significant is the difference in their rushing defenses. San Diego State ranks 12th in the FBS, giving up an average of just 113.3 yards per game. Wyoming, on the other hand ranks 87th in the FBS, giving up an average of 199.4 yards per game. Wyoming is also giving up 14.7 more points per game than San Diego State and 157.2 more total yards per game than San Diego State.
The Aztecs shut down the Cowboys running game as Pumphrey shines. San Diego State will win the Mountain West Conference in 2016.
Virginia Tech +10 at Clemson (Saturday at 8 P.M.) (ACC Championship)
You'd be hard pressed to argue against Clemson being one of the top four teams in the country this season. The Tigers have quality wins over Louisville and Florida State and have beat several teams that are above average.
Clemson is averaging 40 points and over 500 yards a game. Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams are among the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver trio in the nation. The Tigers also happen to rank in the top ten in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense. That's quite a combination!
Virginia Tech has not beat a single team that is currently ranked in the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings (Clemson has beat three). The Hokies are averaging 56 fewer yards and 5.2 fewer points per game than the Tigers. Importantly Clemson's third down conversion percentage is over 50 percent and 9.5 percentage points higher than Virginia Tech's. In a game between two strong offenses and two great defenses, Clemson's ability to convert third downs will make the difference. Add to all of this the fact that they need a win in this game to make the Playoff, and the Tigers should be just about unstoppable.
The one-point loss to Pittsburgh on a last second field goal, which ruined Clemson's perfect season was surely difficult to swallow, but Tiger players and fans alike can gain some solace by the fact that the Tigers will win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.
As if being a Hokie (which my research shows is some kind of turkey) wasn't bad enough on Thanksgiving, they will suffer just as much at the hands (paws? claws?) of the Tigers.
I went 2-3 in my over/under picks last week. Here are my picks for this week.
Over/unders are listed with each matchup on ESPN.com's NCAA Football Scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/14
Colorado at Washington Over 58
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Under 77
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky Over 80
San Diego State at Wyoming Under 62.5
Wisconsin at Penn State Under 47.5
Wins:
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5 (79 points)
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5 (55 points)
Losses:
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5 (44 points)
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5 (55 points)
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5 (57 points)
I'm looking to finish the season strong!
I was able to accomplish my goal of saving face a little bit. My record for the season is now a slightly more respectable 27-35-3.
Conference Championship Week (which includes some games that are not conference championships) should feature lots of interesting games.
I would still like a better overall record, so here are my Week 14 picks:
As usual, all lines come from Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18163759/college-football-full-list-week-14-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook. All times are Eastern Time Zone.
Colorado +7 at Washington (Friday at 9 P.M. (Pac-12 Championship)
You don't have to wait for Saturday to be treated to an exciting game. This matchup to see who is the best in the West (somehow Colorado qualifies as the West), which features two top-10 teams with a combined three losses should be a treat.
I'll admit I was skeptical when Washington was ranked 14th in the AP Preseason rankings, but I am now a full-on believer. Washington has demonstrated their dominance on both sides of the ball. I know the loss to USC may have damaged Jake Browning's stock a little bit, but I would take him to lead my team over any other quarterback. Not only are his yardage and touchdown totals amazing, but he makes good decisions. I have seen this repeatedly by watching him, and it is reinforced by the fact that he has only 7 interceptions to his 40 passing touchdowns.
Add to that the fact that Washington is tied for tenth in the FBS in scoring defense and is 17th in total defense. The Huskies rank 11th in the FBS in third down defense. They also lead the FBS in turnovers forced and are tied for first in turnover margin.
Colorado is having their best season in quite a while. The Buffaloes are on a six-game winning streak. They have won their past three games, which have all been against strong Pac-12 teams. However, they gave up over 20 points in each of those victories. They are facing a better offense and a better team this week, which I don't think they can handle.
A team that puts up the numbers that Washington does on offense, defense, with turnovers, and on third downs, is going to be hard to beat. Huskies take the 2016 Pac-12 crown.
I don't think Washington will get much respect from the media when going against a Big-10 or SEC team in the College Football Playoff, but I think they are as talented as any team in the country*.
*not named Alabama
Temple +3 at Navy (Saturday at noon) (Conference USA Championship)
Navy is the second best rushing team in the FBS. The Midshipmen are averaging a mind-blowing 342 rushing yards per game this season. That statistic alone demonstrates their dominance. Incredibly, despite ranking 20th in the FBS in time of possession (as you might expect), Navy ranks 11in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 42.3 points per game.
Navy has shown that they can contain and outscore high-powered spread offenses. Their past two games, 66-31 and 75-31 wins over Eastern Carolina and SMU, bode well. The Temple team runs a similar offense to those two teams, and the points that Navy put up in each of those games should speak for itself about their offensive capabilities.
The triple option offense that Navy runs is hard to contain (as well as fun to watch). Temple lost 28-13 to Army, another triple option team, in the opening week. In that loss to Army, Temple gave up 329 rushing yards and was out-possessed by over ten minutes. Navy's triple option is better than Army's (though I am excited to see the two teams go head-to-head next week). Based on that performance and Navy's performance throughout this season, I think the home fans in Annapolis are going to be happy.
The Midshipmen win the Conference USA Championship in an impressive show of offensive dominance. Anchors Aweigh!
New Mexico State +11.5 at South Alabama (Saturday at 1 P.M.)
Why not pick an absolute meaningless game between two sub-par teams on Conference Championship Week?
New Mexico State ranks in the bottom eight of the FBS (128 teams) in both total defense and scoring defense. South Alabama ranks in the top 49 in the FBS in both categories. The two teams have similar offensive statistics.
The Aggies have three wins; Jaguars have five. The Aggies only victory over anything resembling a quality team came in Week 2 over inter-state rival New Mexico. The Jaguars have two wins over highly talented teams (Mississippi State and San Diego State).
New Mexico State's extremely weak defense is the main reason why I feel confident giving the points in this game. South Alabama playing for bowl eligibility, which could add extra motivation.
I can't say I'll be watching this game, but I am confident that South Alabama will win this Sun Belt matchup by at least 12 points.
San Diego State +7 at Wyoming (Saturday at 7:45 P.M.) (Mountain West Championship)
I do plan on watching the Mountain West Championship game. Both teams are talented, and San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey is a sight to watch! Pumphrey enters this game with 1,908 rushing yards this season and is third on the NCAA all-time career rushing yards list. If you haven't seen any of his highlights, you need to.
Wyoming has a strong run game also. Their running back, Brian Hill has 1,674 rushing yards. The Cowboys have 2,615 rushing yards as a team (the Aztecs have 3,311 rushing yards as a team. Wyoming has the 33rd most rushing yards per game in the FBS; San Diego State has the seventh most rushing yards per game.
So, both teams have strong running attacks, and I don't think these differences in rushing statistics is that significant. However, what I believe is highly significant is the difference in their rushing defenses. San Diego State ranks 12th in the FBS, giving up an average of just 113.3 yards per game. Wyoming, on the other hand ranks 87th in the FBS, giving up an average of 199.4 yards per game. Wyoming is also giving up 14.7 more points per game than San Diego State and 157.2 more total yards per game than San Diego State.
The Aztecs shut down the Cowboys running game as Pumphrey shines. San Diego State will win the Mountain West Conference in 2016.
Virginia Tech +10 at Clemson (Saturday at 8 P.M.) (ACC Championship)
You'd be hard pressed to argue against Clemson being one of the top four teams in the country this season. The Tigers have quality wins over Louisville and Florida State and have beat several teams that are above average.
Clemson is averaging 40 points and over 500 yards a game. Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams are among the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver trio in the nation. The Tigers also happen to rank in the top ten in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense. That's quite a combination!
Virginia Tech has not beat a single team that is currently ranked in the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings (Clemson has beat three). The Hokies are averaging 56 fewer yards and 5.2 fewer points per game than the Tigers. Importantly Clemson's third down conversion percentage is over 50 percent and 9.5 percentage points higher than Virginia Tech's. In a game between two strong offenses and two great defenses, Clemson's ability to convert third downs will make the difference. Add to all of this the fact that they need a win in this game to make the Playoff, and the Tigers should be just about unstoppable.
The one-point loss to Pittsburgh on a last second field goal, which ruined Clemson's perfect season was surely difficult to swallow, but Tiger players and fans alike can gain some solace by the fact that the Tigers will win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.
As if being a Hokie (which my research shows is some kind of turkey) wasn't bad enough on Thanksgiving, they will suffer just as much at the hands (paws? claws?) of the Tigers.
I went 2-3 in my over/under picks last week. Here are my picks for this week.
Over/unders are listed with each matchup on ESPN.com's NCAA Football Scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/14
Colorado at Washington Over 58
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Under 77
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky Over 80
San Diego State at Wyoming Under 62.5
Wisconsin at Penn State Under 47.5
Wins:
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5 (79 points)
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5 (55 points)
Losses:
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5 (44 points)
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5 (55 points)
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5 (57 points)
I'm looking to finish the season strong!
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Week 13
The Professor is back! I will use the euphemism that I have really enjoyed writing this blog and have learned a lot in the process. Week 12 was yet another rough week for me; I went 1-4. My pick of Stanford won (Beat Cal in the 119th Big Game) and covered, but my picks of Ohio State, UTEP, Maryland, and Texas Tech lost.
I am now 23-34-3 on the season. At this point I am just hoping to save face a little bit.
Here are my (hopefully face-saving) picks:
As usual, the lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18112671/college-football-full-list-week-13-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
Toledo +9.5 at Western Michigan (Friday at 5 P.M.)
I am going for a rare Friday pick this week. With the exception of a one point victory over Northwestern (a Big Ten team) in Week 1, Western Michigan's smallest margin of victory is 14 points, and their average margin of victory is 25.2 points.
It is not mere coincidence that the Broncos are undefeated. They are tied with Ohio State for the fifth best scoring offense in the FBS. They also are tied for the best turnover margin in the FBS at +15. Quarterback Zach Terrel has 27 passing touchdowns and only one interception! Wide receiver Corey Davis is finally getting some publicity for being incredibly talented.
Toledo is strong. Quarterback Logan Woodside, running back, Kareem Hunt, and wide receiver Cody Thompson Woodside and Thompson rank first in the MAC in passing yards and receiving yards, while Hunt ranks third in the MAC in rushing yards.
Both teams are strong on offense; expect the game to be high scoring. I think the difference will be turnovers, Toledo's turnover margin is -1, and defense, Western Michigan is giving up 37.5 fewer yards per game than Toledo. A turnover or two here and a defensive stop or two here will give Wester Michigan the separation they need from Toledo.
College Gameday this past week showed the passion that these players have and the passion that their fans have. It also showed what a great leader their head coach, P.J. Fleck, is. You better believe the Broncos are going to throw everything they have at Toledo to keep their undefeated season, and a chance at a New Year's 6 bowl game, alive. Kalamazoo, Michigan (which is really fun to say) will be rocking as they cheer on their Broncos
As Lee Corse did this past week on College Gameday, I'm reaching for the Bronco head. 12-0!
Arizona State -2.5 at Arizona (Friday at 9:30 P.M.)
I'm actually going for two Friday games this week. Although Arizona State is on a five game losing streak, they have lost to some very good teams (of which Arizona is not one). In their 5-1 start, the Sun Devils showed amazing offensive abilities, becoming one of the best offenses in the FBS in both yardage and points.
Quarterback Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage, who were instrumental in Arizona State's strong start, are back healthy. They should be the same team that I saw in September.
Meanwhile, Arizona is 2-9 with their only two wins coming over Grambling State and Hawaii. In PAC-12 play, the Wildcats are 0-8 giving up an average of 44.8 points per game, including 69 to Washington State, which has a high-powered spread offense similar to Arizona State.
Arizona State is tired of being beat by excellent teams, and they will make the most of this opportunity to put up big numbers against a weak team again.
I'm taking the pitchfork and going with Sparky this week!
Rutgers +13.5 at Maryland (Saturday at noon)
This pick has much more to do with Rutgers than it does Maryland. The Scarlet Knights are 0-8 in Big Ten play, scoring an average of just 9.1 points per game and giving up an average of 41.1 points per game. They have been shut out in four of those eight games, including a couple blowout losses.
Maryland only has one Big Ten win. The Terrapins' only blowout losses were to Ohio State and Michigan, two of the best teams in the country. They've looked good for long portions of games, and, despite the final score of 28-7, they put up a good fight against Nebraska last week.
Maryland is scoring nine more points per game than Rutgers and is giving up nine fewer points per game. Plus, Maryland needs a win to become bowl eligible. Rutgers has shown no sign of being able to do anything, and, quite frankly are a disgrace to the Big Ten (though the other teams might like that because they get to play them).
It's a rough year to be a Rutgers fan. At least you're not a Browns fan. Things will continue to unravel for the Scarlet Knights, so, for the second week in a row, I say Cowabunga!
Auburn +17.5 vs. Alabama (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Frankly, as far as the great teams in the FBS, there's Alabama and then there's everybody else (which is why people had a lot of fun with the fact that Alabama trailed Chattanooga at the end of the first quarter last week). Alabama ranks in the top two in the FBS in total defense, run defense, and scoring defense. The Crimson Tide has given up a total of 30 points over the past five weeks.
Alabama's game against LSU (which was an exciting game to watch) was a great example of why Alabama is the top team in the nation by far and has the longest current win streak in the FBS at 23 games. The Crimson Tide dominated both lines of scrimmage. They eventually just wore down a talented LSU team. Alabama's biggest advantage might be their physical talent.
Auburn is 8-3 and has some quality wins, but I don't think they can compete with Alabama's physicality. The difference I've seen watching these two teams play is substantial. As if they needed more, Alabama's offensive line outweighs Auburn's by 16 pounds (though both average over 300 pounds). Both teams play a 3-4 defense, but Alabamas defensive line outweigh Auburn's defensive line by 65 pounds, and Alabama's linebackers outweigh Auburn's by 36 pounds. Though Alabama's big guys are a little bigger than Auburn's, both are enormous and move deceivingly quickly.
Auburn is a good team, but they are no match for Alabama physically.
The Tide's been rolling for quite a while now and it will continue to roll. Roll Tide!
Mississippi State +7.5 at Ole Miss (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
The Egg Bowl might be my favorite name of any college football rivalry. Though the Egg Bowl will not feature two of the top teams as it usually does; both teams have losing records. I really like Mississippi State's quarterback, Nick Fitzgerald. He is a good passer, but his running ability really sets him apart. He leads the Bulldogs in rushing with 985 rushing yards, and he also has 12 rushing touchdowns. He has picked up many key third downs with his ability to scramble.
Ole Miss's quarterback, freshman Shea Patterson, will be making just his third start of the season. I don't think he will be able to perform well in this game, particularly given that his offensive line is made of two freshman, two sophomores, and a junior, so they don't have tons of experience either.
Similar teams, but the quarterbacks will make the difference. ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) gives Ole Miss an 82 percent chance to win this game, but I still like the Bulldogs to upset the Rebels.
Mississippi State gets the football trophy (which somebody thought was an egg, even though it's clearly a football). Starkville over Oxford!
I went 2-3 with my over/under picks last week. My over/under selections for this week are:
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5
For reference, here are my over/under picks from last week:
Wins:
UTEP at Rice Over 58 (68 points)
Virginia at Georgia Tech Under 56 (48 points)
Losses:Missouri at Tennessee Under 67 (100 points!)
Louisville at Houston Over 68.5 (46 points)
Arizona State at Washington Over 64.5 (62 points)
Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!
I am now 23-34-3 on the season. At this point I am just hoping to save face a little bit.
Here are my (hopefully face-saving) picks:
As usual, the lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18112671/college-football-full-list-week-13-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
Toledo +9.5 at Western Michigan (Friday at 5 P.M.)
I am going for a rare Friday pick this week. With the exception of a one point victory over Northwestern (a Big Ten team) in Week 1, Western Michigan's smallest margin of victory is 14 points, and their average margin of victory is 25.2 points.
It is not mere coincidence that the Broncos are undefeated. They are tied with Ohio State for the fifth best scoring offense in the FBS. They also are tied for the best turnover margin in the FBS at +15. Quarterback Zach Terrel has 27 passing touchdowns and only one interception! Wide receiver Corey Davis is finally getting some publicity for being incredibly talented.
Toledo is strong. Quarterback Logan Woodside, running back, Kareem Hunt, and wide receiver Cody Thompson Woodside and Thompson rank first in the MAC in passing yards and receiving yards, while Hunt ranks third in the MAC in rushing yards.
Both teams are strong on offense; expect the game to be high scoring. I think the difference will be turnovers, Toledo's turnover margin is -1, and defense, Western Michigan is giving up 37.5 fewer yards per game than Toledo. A turnover or two here and a defensive stop or two here will give Wester Michigan the separation they need from Toledo.
College Gameday this past week showed the passion that these players have and the passion that their fans have. It also showed what a great leader their head coach, P.J. Fleck, is. You better believe the Broncos are going to throw everything they have at Toledo to keep their undefeated season, and a chance at a New Year's 6 bowl game, alive. Kalamazoo, Michigan (which is really fun to say) will be rocking as they cheer on their Broncos
As Lee Corse did this past week on College Gameday, I'm reaching for the Bronco head. 12-0!
Arizona State -2.5 at Arizona (Friday at 9:30 P.M.)
I'm actually going for two Friday games this week. Although Arizona State is on a five game losing streak, they have lost to some very good teams (of which Arizona is not one). In their 5-1 start, the Sun Devils showed amazing offensive abilities, becoming one of the best offenses in the FBS in both yardage and points.
Quarterback Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage, who were instrumental in Arizona State's strong start, are back healthy. They should be the same team that I saw in September.
Meanwhile, Arizona is 2-9 with their only two wins coming over Grambling State and Hawaii. In PAC-12 play, the Wildcats are 0-8 giving up an average of 44.8 points per game, including 69 to Washington State, which has a high-powered spread offense similar to Arizona State.
Arizona State is tired of being beat by excellent teams, and they will make the most of this opportunity to put up big numbers against a weak team again.
I'm taking the pitchfork and going with Sparky this week!
Rutgers +13.5 at Maryland (Saturday at noon)
This pick has much more to do with Rutgers than it does Maryland. The Scarlet Knights are 0-8 in Big Ten play, scoring an average of just 9.1 points per game and giving up an average of 41.1 points per game. They have been shut out in four of those eight games, including a couple blowout losses.
Maryland only has one Big Ten win. The Terrapins' only blowout losses were to Ohio State and Michigan, two of the best teams in the country. They've looked good for long portions of games, and, despite the final score of 28-7, they put up a good fight against Nebraska last week.
Maryland is scoring nine more points per game than Rutgers and is giving up nine fewer points per game. Plus, Maryland needs a win to become bowl eligible. Rutgers has shown no sign of being able to do anything, and, quite frankly are a disgrace to the Big Ten (though the other teams might like that because they get to play them).
It's a rough year to be a Rutgers fan. At least you're not a Browns fan. Things will continue to unravel for the Scarlet Knights, so, for the second week in a row, I say Cowabunga!
Auburn +17.5 vs. Alabama (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Frankly, as far as the great teams in the FBS, there's Alabama and then there's everybody else (which is why people had a lot of fun with the fact that Alabama trailed Chattanooga at the end of the first quarter last week). Alabama ranks in the top two in the FBS in total defense, run defense, and scoring defense. The Crimson Tide has given up a total of 30 points over the past five weeks.
Alabama's game against LSU (which was an exciting game to watch) was a great example of why Alabama is the top team in the nation by far and has the longest current win streak in the FBS at 23 games. The Crimson Tide dominated both lines of scrimmage. They eventually just wore down a talented LSU team. Alabama's biggest advantage might be their physical talent.
Auburn is 8-3 and has some quality wins, but I don't think they can compete with Alabama's physicality. The difference I've seen watching these two teams play is substantial. As if they needed more, Alabama's offensive line outweighs Auburn's by 16 pounds (though both average over 300 pounds). Both teams play a 3-4 defense, but Alabamas defensive line outweigh Auburn's defensive line by 65 pounds, and Alabama's linebackers outweigh Auburn's by 36 pounds. Though Alabama's big guys are a little bigger than Auburn's, both are enormous and move deceivingly quickly.
Auburn is a good team, but they are no match for Alabama physically.
The Tide's been rolling for quite a while now and it will continue to roll. Roll Tide!
Mississippi State +7.5 at Ole Miss (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
The Egg Bowl might be my favorite name of any college football rivalry. Though the Egg Bowl will not feature two of the top teams as it usually does; both teams have losing records. I really like Mississippi State's quarterback, Nick Fitzgerald. He is a good passer, but his running ability really sets him apart. He leads the Bulldogs in rushing with 985 rushing yards, and he also has 12 rushing touchdowns. He has picked up many key third downs with his ability to scramble.
Ole Miss's quarterback, freshman Shea Patterson, will be making just his third start of the season. I don't think he will be able to perform well in this game, particularly given that his offensive line is made of two freshman, two sophomores, and a junior, so they don't have tons of experience either.
Similar teams, but the quarterbacks will make the difference. ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) gives Ole Miss an 82 percent chance to win this game, but I still like the Bulldogs to upset the Rebels.
Mississippi State gets the football trophy (which somebody thought was an egg, even though it's clearly a football). Starkville over Oxford!
I went 2-3 with my over/under picks last week. My over/under selections for this week are:
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5
For reference, here are my over/under picks from last week:
Wins:
UTEP at Rice Over 58 (68 points)
Virginia at Georgia Tech Under 56 (48 points)
Losses:Missouri at Tennessee Under 67 (100 points!)
Louisville at Houston Over 68.5 (46 points)
Arizona State at Washington Over 64.5 (62 points)
Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Week 12
The Professor is back! The good news is: I stopped my streak of losing weeks. The bad news is: I was not able to have a winning week. I went 2-2-1. My picks of LSU and Texas Tech won; my picks of Wyoming and Michigan lost, and my pick of Kentucky pushed.
Unfortunately that means that I did not make up any ground. I have still lost eight more games than I have won and am now 22-30-3 on the season.
Which means I better start winning again, so here are my Week 12 picks:
Once again, all lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18054586/college-football-full-list-week-12-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Ohio State -21.5 at Michigan State (Saturday at noon)
The many losses by highly ranked teams last week helped Ohio State's chances of getting in the College Football Playoff. If they win out, the Buckeyes should be guaranteed a spot in the CFP. They know what's at stake, so they should be plenty motivated. The Buckeyes have shown that motivation and that they are one of the best teams in the country with back-to-back 62-3 wins (against Nebraska and Maryland).
Michigan State had the good fortune of playing Rutgers this past week and ended their seven-game losing streak (sorry Rutgers fans, the truth hurts). The Spartans were ranked 12th in the AP preseason poll, but are now 3-7 and cannot become bowl eligible. I do think they still have talent, but, the Spartans won't have that extra spark, which is needed to beat a team like this year's Buckeyes.
Psychology aside, the two teams have played comparable schedules. Ohio State is the second highest scoring team in the FBS with 46.5 points per game; Michigan State is 84th with 26.1 points per game. Ohio State ranks fourth in the FBS with a +13 turnover margin; Michigan State is tied for 92nd with a -3 turnover margin. Ohio State has a huge advantage over Michigan State in almost every major statistical category.
Plus, having watched both teams play this season, Ohio State consistently looks amazing, while Michigan State consistently looks, well, less than amazing.
Psychology, numbers, and the eye test say it will be another decisive victory for the Buckeyes. OH-IO!
Maryland +15 at Nebraska (Saturday at noon)
The main reason why I like this line is that Nebraska's offense is not that good. Despite being 8-2 and tied for first place in the BIG TEN West (though Wisconsin wins the tiebreaker because they beat Nebraska), the Cornhuskers are tied for 66th in the FBS in points scored per game with 28.3 points per game. If you only count their BIG TEN game, Nebraska is averaging only 21.9 points per game.
Maryland isn't great; they're 5-5 (2-5 in the BIG TEN), but they have been able to put up an average of 20.6 points per game against conference opponents this season.
Nebraska won't be helped by the fact that it doesn't look like their quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. is even particularly close to being completely healthy. After suffering a concussion two weeks ago against Ohio State and an ankle injury last week against Minnesota, it is unclear how effective he will be.
I expect a low scoring game, in which 15 points should be more than enough to cover. Cowabunga! (major props to you if you get that reference)
Texas Tech -3 at Iowa State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
I'm taking Texas Tech for the second week in a row, and I'm picking the Red Raiders this week for the same reason as I did last week: they put up a ton of points. Their prolific spread offense is the third highest scoring team in the FBS. They put up 44 points this past week against a talented Oklahoma State team that is ranked 12th and only lost by one (which covered the spread and gave me a win). Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomas, the Red Raiders are the top passing offense in the FBS.
Coming off back-to-back close losses (against Texas and Oklahoma State), Texas Tech needs victories in their final two games to become bowl eligible. Iowa State is 2-8, cannot become bowl eligible, and has the 60th ranked pass defense in the FBS.
It's hard to lose a game when you light up the scoreboard like Texas Tech has done this season. Somehow, the Red Raiders have managed to do that six times this season, but each of those teams is significantly better and has more talent that Iowa State.
The Red Raiders continue to light up the scoreboard (but win this time) as they embarrass the Cyclones in Ames. Guns up!
Stanford -11 at California (Saturday at 5:30 P.M.)
I'm going with the sentimental pick here. The Cardinal have had a whirlwind season. They were ranked eighth in the AP Preseason Poll, won their first three games, lost three of their next four games, and have won their last three games. These last three wins should have boosted Stanford's confidence.
California has some nice wins on the season, but they have lost their last three games, giving up an average of 55.7 points per game.
Most of the Golden Bears' wins have come in games where they gave up a lot of points but were able to score even more with their spread offense. Stanford has a solid, disciplined pass defense, which is giving up only 211.0 passing yards per game. So, California should not be able to count on winning by putting up big numbers in the passing game.
(My friend) Christian McCaffrey missed a few games with an injury but has still put up over 1,100 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. He and the rest of the Cardinal team will want to finish strong and should have the chance going against a team that is second to last in the FBS in total defense.
There is a reason why Stanford currently sits at 7-3, while California is 4-6. The Axe will stay in Palo Alto for another year. Fear the Tree!
UTEP +1.5 at Rice
I'm going to go against the home team on this one. The main reason for this is Rice's defense (or lack thereof). Unless you have an unbelievable offense (e.g Texas Tech and Arizona State), it's really hard to win a game with terrible defense. Rice's defense is terrible. They are fourth worst in the FBS in total defense and have repeatedly been unable to stop their opponent. In fact, opponents have set some offensive records against Rice this year.
The Owls' offense, while not bad (they rank sixth out of the 13 Conference USA teams in total offense), it has not been near enough to make up for their defensive shortcomings. This combination is largely why the Owls are 2-8 with their wins coming over Prairie View A&M and Charlotte.
I'm not saying that UTEP is much better. They are only 3-7 and have been blown out a few times. Rice and UTEP have played comparable schedules, and the Owls' average point differential is -14.1 points per game, while the Miners' is -11.3 points per game. While that difference is not much, I think it will be magnified by UTEP's strong running game, led by Aaron Jones, who already has 1,397 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns against an Owls' rushing defense that is 102nd in the FBS, giving up an average of 216.6 yards per game.
The men from West Texas will find success in their journey into the eastern part of the state. Go Miners!
I went 2-3 in my over/under picks this past week. My over/under picks this week are:
Missouri at Tennessee Under 67
Louisville at Houston Over 68,5
UTEP at Rice Over 58
Virginia at Georgia Tech Under 56
Arizona State at Washington Over 64.5
*The over/unders are listed by each game on ESPN.com's NCAA football scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/group/8/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/12
For reference, here are my results from last week:
Wins:Wake Forest at Louisville Over 54.5 (56 points)
Vanderbilt at Missouri Under 54.5 (43 points)
Losses:
West Virginia at Texas Over 64 (44 points)
Baylor at Oklahoma Over 80 (69 points)
San Diego State at Nevada Under 51 (62 points)
This past week, The Professor's Predictions passed 500 page views for the season! Thank you for your support.
Unfortunately that means that I did not make up any ground. I have still lost eight more games than I have won and am now 22-30-3 on the season.
Which means I better start winning again, so here are my Week 12 picks:
Once again, all lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18054586/college-football-full-list-week-12-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Ohio State -21.5 at Michigan State (Saturday at noon)
The many losses by highly ranked teams last week helped Ohio State's chances of getting in the College Football Playoff. If they win out, the Buckeyes should be guaranteed a spot in the CFP. They know what's at stake, so they should be plenty motivated. The Buckeyes have shown that motivation and that they are one of the best teams in the country with back-to-back 62-3 wins (against Nebraska and Maryland).
Michigan State had the good fortune of playing Rutgers this past week and ended their seven-game losing streak (sorry Rutgers fans, the truth hurts). The Spartans were ranked 12th in the AP preseason poll, but are now 3-7 and cannot become bowl eligible. I do think they still have talent, but, the Spartans won't have that extra spark, which is needed to beat a team like this year's Buckeyes.
Psychology aside, the two teams have played comparable schedules. Ohio State is the second highest scoring team in the FBS with 46.5 points per game; Michigan State is 84th with 26.1 points per game. Ohio State ranks fourth in the FBS with a +13 turnover margin; Michigan State is tied for 92nd with a -3 turnover margin. Ohio State has a huge advantage over Michigan State in almost every major statistical category.
Plus, having watched both teams play this season, Ohio State consistently looks amazing, while Michigan State consistently looks, well, less than amazing.
Psychology, numbers, and the eye test say it will be another decisive victory for the Buckeyes. OH-IO!
Maryland +15 at Nebraska (Saturday at noon)
The main reason why I like this line is that Nebraska's offense is not that good. Despite being 8-2 and tied for first place in the BIG TEN West (though Wisconsin wins the tiebreaker because they beat Nebraska), the Cornhuskers are tied for 66th in the FBS in points scored per game with 28.3 points per game. If you only count their BIG TEN game, Nebraska is averaging only 21.9 points per game.
Maryland isn't great; they're 5-5 (2-5 in the BIG TEN), but they have been able to put up an average of 20.6 points per game against conference opponents this season.
Nebraska won't be helped by the fact that it doesn't look like their quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. is even particularly close to being completely healthy. After suffering a concussion two weeks ago against Ohio State and an ankle injury last week against Minnesota, it is unclear how effective he will be.
I expect a low scoring game, in which 15 points should be more than enough to cover. Cowabunga! (major props to you if you get that reference)
Texas Tech -3 at Iowa State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
I'm taking Texas Tech for the second week in a row, and I'm picking the Red Raiders this week for the same reason as I did last week: they put up a ton of points. Their prolific spread offense is the third highest scoring team in the FBS. They put up 44 points this past week against a talented Oklahoma State team that is ranked 12th and only lost by one (which covered the spread and gave me a win). Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomas, the Red Raiders are the top passing offense in the FBS.
Coming off back-to-back close losses (against Texas and Oklahoma State), Texas Tech needs victories in their final two games to become bowl eligible. Iowa State is 2-8, cannot become bowl eligible, and has the 60th ranked pass defense in the FBS.
It's hard to lose a game when you light up the scoreboard like Texas Tech has done this season. Somehow, the Red Raiders have managed to do that six times this season, but each of those teams is significantly better and has more talent that Iowa State.
The Red Raiders continue to light up the scoreboard (but win this time) as they embarrass the Cyclones in Ames. Guns up!
Stanford -11 at California (Saturday at 5:30 P.M.)
I'm going with the sentimental pick here. The Cardinal have had a whirlwind season. They were ranked eighth in the AP Preseason Poll, won their first three games, lost three of their next four games, and have won their last three games. These last three wins should have boosted Stanford's confidence.
California has some nice wins on the season, but they have lost their last three games, giving up an average of 55.7 points per game.
Most of the Golden Bears' wins have come in games where they gave up a lot of points but were able to score even more with their spread offense. Stanford has a solid, disciplined pass defense, which is giving up only 211.0 passing yards per game. So, California should not be able to count on winning by putting up big numbers in the passing game.
(My friend) Christian McCaffrey missed a few games with an injury but has still put up over 1,100 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. He and the rest of the Cardinal team will want to finish strong and should have the chance going against a team that is second to last in the FBS in total defense.
There is a reason why Stanford currently sits at 7-3, while California is 4-6. The Axe will stay in Palo Alto for another year. Fear the Tree!
UTEP +1.5 at Rice
I'm going to go against the home team on this one. The main reason for this is Rice's defense (or lack thereof). Unless you have an unbelievable offense (e.g Texas Tech and Arizona State), it's really hard to win a game with terrible defense. Rice's defense is terrible. They are fourth worst in the FBS in total defense and have repeatedly been unable to stop their opponent. In fact, opponents have set some offensive records against Rice this year.
The Owls' offense, while not bad (they rank sixth out of the 13 Conference USA teams in total offense), it has not been near enough to make up for their defensive shortcomings. This combination is largely why the Owls are 2-8 with their wins coming over Prairie View A&M and Charlotte.
I'm not saying that UTEP is much better. They are only 3-7 and have been blown out a few times. Rice and UTEP have played comparable schedules, and the Owls' average point differential is -14.1 points per game, while the Miners' is -11.3 points per game. While that difference is not much, I think it will be magnified by UTEP's strong running game, led by Aaron Jones, who already has 1,397 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns against an Owls' rushing defense that is 102nd in the FBS, giving up an average of 216.6 yards per game.
The men from West Texas will find success in their journey into the eastern part of the state. Go Miners!
I went 2-3 in my over/under picks this past week. My over/under picks this week are:
Missouri at Tennessee Under 67
Louisville at Houston Over 68,5
UTEP at Rice Over 58
Virginia at Georgia Tech Under 56
Arizona State at Washington Over 64.5
*The over/unders are listed by each game on ESPN.com's NCAA football scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/group/8/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/12
For reference, here are my results from last week:
Wins:Wake Forest at Louisville Over 54.5 (56 points)
Vanderbilt at Missouri Under 54.5 (43 points)
Losses:
West Virginia at Texas Over 64 (44 points)
Baylor at Oklahoma Over 80 (69 points)
San Diego State at Nevada Under 51 (62 points)
This past week, The Professor's Predictions passed 500 page views for the season! Thank you for your support.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Week 11
The Professor is back! Week 10 was yet another step back. My pick of Alabama won, but my picks of Texas A&M, Florida, Syracuse, New Mexico lost. New Mexico came 3 points short of covering the spread. They had two red zone turnovers and a missed field goal in that game.
I am now 20-28-2 (.417) on the season and have been moving in the wrong direction for several weeks. I am running out of reasons to excuse my continued poor performance, but that still doesn't mean that I have to face the cold, hard truth.
I'm hoping that I will not need to make up yet another reason for a bad week, so here are my Week 11 picks:
Once again, the lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17999577/college-football-full-list-week-11-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
Kentucky +13 at Tennessee (Saturday at noon)
Since Tennessee's 5-0 start (with all of those big fourth quarter comebacks), the Volunteers are 1-3 (yes; they managed to beat Tennessee Tech this past weekend). In their three losses, all against strong SEC teams, the Volunteers have turned the ball over 11 times.
Kentucky is 3-1 in their last four games, with their three wins coming against good SEC teams (though not as tough as Tennessee's schedule). In those three wins, Kentucky, led by running backs Benny Snell Jr. and Stephen Johnson is averaging 299.0 rushing yards per game and has six rushing touchdowns.
Tennessee's is 83rd in the FBS in rushing defense, giving up 191.7 rushing yards per game. So Kentucky should be able to rack up the rushing yards while wearing down the Tennessee defense, which could open up even more opportunities for the Wildcats' offense.
Tennessee is averaging just 4.8 more points per game this season than Kentucky. Tennessee is having a disappointing season after coming in with high expectations and starting the season 5-0. Kentucky is one of the most impressively surprising teams this season and is just a half game behind Florida for first place in the SEC East.
I just don't see Kentucky losing this matchup by more than a few points (if at all). For the first time ever, I'm taking the men from Lexington!
Wyoming -7 at UNLV (Saturday at 3 P.M.)
This week's matchup of non-Power 5 teams comes out of the Mountain West Conference.
Wyoming is 7-2 and their two losses have come at Nebraska and by three points at Eastern Michigan. UNLV is 3-6 with wins over Jacksonville State, Fresno State, and Hawaii.
The Cowboys are on a five-game winning streak with wins over 8-1 Boise State and 6-3 Air Force.
Rebels' quarterback Kurt Palandech will be making his first start of the season. Johnny Stanton suffered an injury earlier this season, and Dalton Sneed was benched in favor of Palandech. I think a teams tend to struggle with changes at quarterback.
UNLV's biggest strength is their running game. The Rebels are 19th in the FBS in rushing offense with 236.2 rushing yards per game, but Wyoming has the 37th best rush defense giving up 138.4 rushing yards per game.
I've seen parts of different Wyoming games this season, and I like the way they play. I don't know much about UNLV, but, after looking at the matchup, I feel quite comfortable giving seven points.
Saddle up, Cowboys!
Texas Tech +12.5 at Oklahoma State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Say what you want about Texas Tech, the team lights up the scoreboard every game. The Red Raiders rank first in the FBS in passing offense, second in total offense, fourth in total offense.
Oklahoma State ranks 80th in the FBS in passing defense and 98th in total defense.
That's the extent of my analysis. Texas Tech puts up enough points to make me comfortable that they will not lose by more than a couple points at the most.
I'm not sure what makes a Red Raider red, but I'm taking them this week!
LSU -7 at Arkansas (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
LSU looked extremely impressive against Alabama. Despite the loss, the Tigers showed they have an elite defense that can pretty much contain the best team in the country.
LSU is second to last in the SEC in pass offense, but sixth in the SEC (a conference with many great running backs) with 214.0 yards per game. Alabama was able to beat LSU by containing Leonard Fournette and the TIgers' rushing attack.
Meanwhile, Arkansas is ranked 91st in the FBS in rushing defense. LSU's ability to run successfully should open up some plays in the passing game and the Tigers' defense should have lots of confidence after how they performed against Alabama.
LSU will be able to move the ball consistently, while their defense will not let Arkansas do the same.
The news that Mike VI has sarcoma and would no longer attend games was sad, but the football team will excel in his absence. Geaux Tigers!
Michigan -20.5 at Iowa (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
Michigan is 9-0 and ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings, and the Wolverines have an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Michigan coach, Jim Harbaugh, has shown time and time again that, even with a big lead late in a game, he does not take his foot off of the gas.
The Wolverines are averaging 162.0 more yards of offense per game than the Hawkeyes, and their defense is giving up 155.7 fewer yards per game. Michigan's third down conversion percentage on offense is 12.5 percent higher than Iowa's, and opponents' third down conversion percentage against Michigan's defense is 17.4 percent lower than Michigan.
Michigan has several big wins this season. The best team that Iowa beat was probably Minnesota. Against common opponents, the Wolverines have put up significantly better numbers in all facets of the game.
It's the Maize and Blue again for me this week. Give me the Wolverine head!
Last week, I added a new feature to my blog where I picked five over/under lines. I went 3-2 in those. Since that is the only bright spot in the Professor's Predictions over the last several weeks, I have decided to continue that feature.
Over/Under lines come from betus.com: http://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/college-football-lines.aspx
Wake Forest at Louisville Over 54.5
West Virginia at Texas Over 64
Baylor at Oklahoma Over 80
Vanderbilt at Missouri Under 54.5
San Diego State at Nevada Under 51
For reference, these were my picks last week:
Wins:
Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee State Over 63.5 (70 points)
Washington at California: Over 78 (93 points)
Air Force at Army: Under 50 (43 points)
Losses:
Nebraska at Ohio State: Under 52.5 (65 points)
Florida International at Western Kentucky: Under 65.5 (70 points)
I really hope this week will finally be my breakthrough week!
I am now 20-28-2 (.417) on the season and have been moving in the wrong direction for several weeks. I am running out of reasons to excuse my continued poor performance, but that still doesn't mean that I have to face the cold, hard truth.
I'm hoping that I will not need to make up yet another reason for a bad week, so here are my Week 11 picks:
Once again, the lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17999577/college-football-full-list-week-11-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
Kentucky +13 at Tennessee (Saturday at noon)
Since Tennessee's 5-0 start (with all of those big fourth quarter comebacks), the Volunteers are 1-3 (yes; they managed to beat Tennessee Tech this past weekend). In their three losses, all against strong SEC teams, the Volunteers have turned the ball over 11 times.
Kentucky is 3-1 in their last four games, with their three wins coming against good SEC teams (though not as tough as Tennessee's schedule). In those three wins, Kentucky, led by running backs Benny Snell Jr. and Stephen Johnson is averaging 299.0 rushing yards per game and has six rushing touchdowns.
Tennessee's is 83rd in the FBS in rushing defense, giving up 191.7 rushing yards per game. So Kentucky should be able to rack up the rushing yards while wearing down the Tennessee defense, which could open up even more opportunities for the Wildcats' offense.
Tennessee is averaging just 4.8 more points per game this season than Kentucky. Tennessee is having a disappointing season after coming in with high expectations and starting the season 5-0. Kentucky is one of the most impressively surprising teams this season and is just a half game behind Florida for first place in the SEC East.
I just don't see Kentucky losing this matchup by more than a few points (if at all). For the first time ever, I'm taking the men from Lexington!
Wyoming -7 at UNLV (Saturday at 3 P.M.)
This week's matchup of non-Power 5 teams comes out of the Mountain West Conference.
Wyoming is 7-2 and their two losses have come at Nebraska and by three points at Eastern Michigan. UNLV is 3-6 with wins over Jacksonville State, Fresno State, and Hawaii.
The Cowboys are on a five-game winning streak with wins over 8-1 Boise State and 6-3 Air Force.
Rebels' quarterback Kurt Palandech will be making his first start of the season. Johnny Stanton suffered an injury earlier this season, and Dalton Sneed was benched in favor of Palandech. I think a teams tend to struggle with changes at quarterback.
UNLV's biggest strength is their running game. The Rebels are 19th in the FBS in rushing offense with 236.2 rushing yards per game, but Wyoming has the 37th best rush defense giving up 138.4 rushing yards per game.
I've seen parts of different Wyoming games this season, and I like the way they play. I don't know much about UNLV, but, after looking at the matchup, I feel quite comfortable giving seven points.
Saddle up, Cowboys!
Texas Tech +12.5 at Oklahoma State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Say what you want about Texas Tech, the team lights up the scoreboard every game. The Red Raiders rank first in the FBS in passing offense, second in total offense, fourth in total offense.
Oklahoma State ranks 80th in the FBS in passing defense and 98th in total defense.
That's the extent of my analysis. Texas Tech puts up enough points to make me comfortable that they will not lose by more than a couple points at the most.
I'm not sure what makes a Red Raider red, but I'm taking them this week!
LSU -7 at Arkansas (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
LSU looked extremely impressive against Alabama. Despite the loss, the Tigers showed they have an elite defense that can pretty much contain the best team in the country.
LSU is second to last in the SEC in pass offense, but sixth in the SEC (a conference with many great running backs) with 214.0 yards per game. Alabama was able to beat LSU by containing Leonard Fournette and the TIgers' rushing attack.
Meanwhile, Arkansas is ranked 91st in the FBS in rushing defense. LSU's ability to run successfully should open up some plays in the passing game and the Tigers' defense should have lots of confidence after how they performed against Alabama.
LSU will be able to move the ball consistently, while their defense will not let Arkansas do the same.
The news that Mike VI has sarcoma and would no longer attend games was sad, but the football team will excel in his absence. Geaux Tigers!
Michigan -20.5 at Iowa (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
Michigan is 9-0 and ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings, and the Wolverines have an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Michigan coach, Jim Harbaugh, has shown time and time again that, even with a big lead late in a game, he does not take his foot off of the gas.
The Wolverines are averaging 162.0 more yards of offense per game than the Hawkeyes, and their defense is giving up 155.7 fewer yards per game. Michigan's third down conversion percentage on offense is 12.5 percent higher than Iowa's, and opponents' third down conversion percentage against Michigan's defense is 17.4 percent lower than Michigan.
Michigan has several big wins this season. The best team that Iowa beat was probably Minnesota. Against common opponents, the Wolverines have put up significantly better numbers in all facets of the game.
It's the Maize and Blue again for me this week. Give me the Wolverine head!
Last week, I added a new feature to my blog where I picked five over/under lines. I went 3-2 in those. Since that is the only bright spot in the Professor's Predictions over the last several weeks, I have decided to continue that feature.
Over/Under lines come from betus.com: http://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/college-football-lines.aspx
Wake Forest at Louisville Over 54.5
West Virginia at Texas Over 64
Baylor at Oklahoma Over 80
Vanderbilt at Missouri Under 54.5
San Diego State at Nevada Under 51
For reference, these were my picks last week:
Wins:
Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee State Over 63.5 (70 points)
Washington at California: Over 78 (93 points)
Air Force at Army: Under 50 (43 points)
Losses:
Nebraska at Ohio State: Under 52.5 (65 points)
Florida International at Western Kentucky: Under 65.5 (70 points)
I really hope this week will finally be my breakthrough week!
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Week 10
The Professor is back! Week 9 was another step backwards. I went 2-3 with my picks of SMU and Duke winning, and my picks of Louisville, Michigan, and Baylor losing.
I am now 19-24-2 on the season and in desperate need of a good week, so here are my Week 10 picks:
The lines that I found from Westgate Las Vegas posted on ESPN.com are presented a little bit differently this week: http://m.espn.com/ncf/dailyline?date=20161105&casinoId=25&wjb
All times are still Eastern Time Zone
Texas A&M -13.at Mississippi State (Saturday at noon)
The more I think about it, the more I think that the College Football Playoff Committee got their first rankings correct (though rankings at this point of the season do not have tremendous importance). The Aggies have played a tough schedule and have several impressive wins.
I like that the CFP Committee did not overemphasize the Aggies' one-loss, which came at the hands of by far the best team in the country. They currently look like one of the four best teams in the country.
Aggies quarterback Trevor Knight has gotten a little bit stronger throughout the season, and between Knight and running back Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M has a solid running game. However, where the Aggies really distinguish themselves is on defense.
In the Aggies four games against unranked teams (which Mississippi State is), they have allowed fewer than ten points per game. Plus, through eight games, the Aggie defense has ten fumble recoveries and nine interceptions, and are tied for fourth in the FBS in turnovers forced.
The Bulldogs rank 47th in the FBS in total offense and 76th in defense. The Bulldogs lost in the opening week against South Alabama and yet to look impressive for more than a couple drives all year.
A mediocre team should be easy pickings for one of the best teams in the country. Gig 'em!
Florida -3 at Arkansas (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Arkansas is 1-3 against ranked teams this season. They could not get anything going in their 56-3 loss against Auburn in their most recent game. The Razorbacks' quarterback, Austin Allen, is expected to play but does appear to be still dealing with issues from a knee injury which he sustained in the Auburn loss.
The Razorbacks' defense has given up an average of over 530 yards in their four SEC games this season, all against talented ranked teams.
Florida has not faced the caliber of talent that Arkansas has, but they have face some good SEC teams, but they've looked impressive in the games that they have played. The Gators have quarterback Luke Del Rio completely healthy. They have two strong runners in Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine. The Gator defense has given up thirty combined points in their last three SEC games (all wins, against Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Georgia).
I saw how happy the Gators were when the polls came out and they saw that they were ranked in the top ten. They are going to fight hard to stay in the top ten.
Chomp! Chomp!
Syracuse + 28 at Clemson (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Clemson is 8-0, but only three of those wins have come by double digits. Clemson beat Troy in Week 2 by only six points. In the Tigers' undefeated 2015 regular season, six of their first eight wins were by double digits.
Clemson ranks 30th in the FBS in total offense; Syracuse ranks 25th.
Syracuse has the fifth best passing offense in the FBS, and Clemson has struggled at times defending the pass.
Short and sweet, Syracuse has what it takes to cover the spread in Death Valley.
It may not rhyme with anything, but I'm taking the Orange this week!
Alabama -7 at LSU (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
The one thing about which there should be absolutely no suspense is that Alabama will be #1 in every poll/ranking to come out this week.
Jalen Hurts has taken control of the Crimson Tide offense, and, while he has not put up unbelievable numbers, he has managed the offense well. Watching Alabama play, what sticks out the most is how much they dominate the line of scrimmage (both on offense and defense). This allows the Crimson Tide to put up big numbers in the running game and also limit the effectiveness of their opponent's offense.
As if that weren't enough, the Crimson Tide also scores on defense and special teams. They have an FBS-leading 12 non-offensive touchdowns in 2016.
LSU's biggest strength is their running back Leonard Fournette, who came up big in their most recent game, a win over Ole Miss. Fournette had 284 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in that game, but guess what? Alabama has the top ranked run defense in the FBS giving up just 70.1 yards per game. Through Alabama's eight wins, the top individual rushing performances against them have been 52 and 62 yards.
The Tide remain undefeated as their winning streak continues. I've got the Tide rolling on Saturday!
Nevada + 11 at New Mexico (Saturday at 10:15 P.M.)
Nevada's starting quarterback, Tyler Stewart, is out for the season with a shoulder injury that he suffered in their last game (against Wyoming). Though they had a bye week for Ty Ganji to get used to running the offense, I don't think the offense will be as effective without the man who has been leading them for the past two seasons.
In Nevada's pistol offense, the quarterback is not required to make tons of big plays in order for the team to be successful. The Wolfpack's running game has come up big in their three wins, but New Mexico's has a decent run defense. The Lobos are ranked 42nd in the FBS in rushing defense (top third), giving up 143.4 yards per game, and they should be able to pack the line, given the circumstances at quarterback.
Meanwhile, New Mexico has the top rushing offense in the FBS, both in terms of rushing yards per game and total rushing touchdowns. They should be able to pound the ball and wear down the Wolfpack defense.
Nevada is 3-5 (1-3 in the Mountain West); New Mexico is 5-3 (3-1 in the Mountain West), and the game is being played at New Mexico.
I had to look it up, but, apparently a lobo is a type of wolf (but calling yourselves the Lobos sounds cooler than calling yourselves the wolves), so I hope I sound cool when I say, Go Lobos!
I am going to add something new this week; instead of listing the game that I would most like to see live, because the new listing of lines from Westgate also includes over/unders, I am going to pick five of those:
Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee State Over 63.5
Nebraska at Ohio State: Under 52.5
Air Force at Army: Under 50
Florida International at Western Kentucky: Under 65.5
Washington at California: Over 78
BTW, I would most like to be at Alabama at LSU.
If I keep saying "this week is going to be my week", I'll be right eventually, right?
I am now 19-24-2 on the season and in desperate need of a good week, so here are my Week 10 picks:
The lines that I found from Westgate Las Vegas posted on ESPN.com are presented a little bit differently this week: http://m.espn.com/ncf/dailyline?date=20161105&casinoId=25&wjb
All times are still Eastern Time Zone
Texas A&M -13.at Mississippi State (Saturday at noon)
The more I think about it, the more I think that the College Football Playoff Committee got their first rankings correct (though rankings at this point of the season do not have tremendous importance). The Aggies have played a tough schedule and have several impressive wins.
I like that the CFP Committee did not overemphasize the Aggies' one-loss, which came at the hands of by far the best team in the country. They currently look like one of the four best teams in the country.
Aggies quarterback Trevor Knight has gotten a little bit stronger throughout the season, and between Knight and running back Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M has a solid running game. However, where the Aggies really distinguish themselves is on defense.
In the Aggies four games against unranked teams (which Mississippi State is), they have allowed fewer than ten points per game. Plus, through eight games, the Aggie defense has ten fumble recoveries and nine interceptions, and are tied for fourth in the FBS in turnovers forced.
The Bulldogs rank 47th in the FBS in total offense and 76th in defense. The Bulldogs lost in the opening week against South Alabama and yet to look impressive for more than a couple drives all year.
A mediocre team should be easy pickings for one of the best teams in the country. Gig 'em!
Florida -3 at Arkansas (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Arkansas is 1-3 against ranked teams this season. They could not get anything going in their 56-3 loss against Auburn in their most recent game. The Razorbacks' quarterback, Austin Allen, is expected to play but does appear to be still dealing with issues from a knee injury which he sustained in the Auburn loss.
The Razorbacks' defense has given up an average of over 530 yards in their four SEC games this season, all against talented ranked teams.
Florida has not faced the caliber of talent that Arkansas has, but they have face some good SEC teams, but they've looked impressive in the games that they have played. The Gators have quarterback Luke Del Rio completely healthy. They have two strong runners in Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine. The Gator defense has given up thirty combined points in their last three SEC games (all wins, against Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Georgia).
I saw how happy the Gators were when the polls came out and they saw that they were ranked in the top ten. They are going to fight hard to stay in the top ten.
Chomp! Chomp!
Syracuse + 28 at Clemson (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Clemson is 8-0, but only three of those wins have come by double digits. Clemson beat Troy in Week 2 by only six points. In the Tigers' undefeated 2015 regular season, six of their first eight wins were by double digits.
Clemson ranks 30th in the FBS in total offense; Syracuse ranks 25th.
Syracuse has the fifth best passing offense in the FBS, and Clemson has struggled at times defending the pass.
Short and sweet, Syracuse has what it takes to cover the spread in Death Valley.
It may not rhyme with anything, but I'm taking the Orange this week!
Alabama -7 at LSU (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
The one thing about which there should be absolutely no suspense is that Alabama will be #1 in every poll/ranking to come out this week.
Jalen Hurts has taken control of the Crimson Tide offense, and, while he has not put up unbelievable numbers, he has managed the offense well. Watching Alabama play, what sticks out the most is how much they dominate the line of scrimmage (both on offense and defense). This allows the Crimson Tide to put up big numbers in the running game and also limit the effectiveness of their opponent's offense.
As if that weren't enough, the Crimson Tide also scores on defense and special teams. They have an FBS-leading 12 non-offensive touchdowns in 2016.
LSU's biggest strength is their running back Leonard Fournette, who came up big in their most recent game, a win over Ole Miss. Fournette had 284 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in that game, but guess what? Alabama has the top ranked run defense in the FBS giving up just 70.1 yards per game. Through Alabama's eight wins, the top individual rushing performances against them have been 52 and 62 yards.
The Tide remain undefeated as their winning streak continues. I've got the Tide rolling on Saturday!
Nevada + 11 at New Mexico (Saturday at 10:15 P.M.)
Nevada's starting quarterback, Tyler Stewart, is out for the season with a shoulder injury that he suffered in their last game (against Wyoming). Though they had a bye week for Ty Ganji to get used to running the offense, I don't think the offense will be as effective without the man who has been leading them for the past two seasons.
In Nevada's pistol offense, the quarterback is not required to make tons of big plays in order for the team to be successful. The Wolfpack's running game has come up big in their three wins, but New Mexico's has a decent run defense. The Lobos are ranked 42nd in the FBS in rushing defense (top third), giving up 143.4 yards per game, and they should be able to pack the line, given the circumstances at quarterback.
Meanwhile, New Mexico has the top rushing offense in the FBS, both in terms of rushing yards per game and total rushing touchdowns. They should be able to pound the ball and wear down the Wolfpack defense.
Nevada is 3-5 (1-3 in the Mountain West); New Mexico is 5-3 (3-1 in the Mountain West), and the game is being played at New Mexico.
I had to look it up, but, apparently a lobo is a type of wolf (but calling yourselves the Lobos sounds cooler than calling yourselves the wolves), so I hope I sound cool when I say, Go Lobos!
I am going to add something new this week; instead of listing the game that I would most like to see live, because the new listing of lines from Westgate also includes over/unders, I am going to pick five of those:
Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee State Over 63.5
Nebraska at Ohio State: Under 52.5
Air Force at Army: Under 50
Florida International at Western Kentucky: Under 65.5
Washington at California: Over 78
BTW, I would most like to be at Alabama at LSU.
If I keep saying "this week is going to be my week", I'll be right eventually, right?
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Week 9
The Professor is back! Yikes! Last week was rough, my worst week ever. I went 0-4 with one push. My picks of Army, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Washington State lost, while my pick of Oklahoma State pushed.
I was correct in stating that Texas Tech had no defense and that Oklahoma would put up over 50 points against them (they put up 66), but I did not realize that Oklahoma's defense would not show up that night either (they gave up a season high 59 points), and thus, did not cover the 14 point spread.
So I am now 17-21-2 on the season. I am disappointed by my record, but I am not giving up hope. There's still time for me to achieve a record that I can be proud of.
I like to think that my luck will rebound like a boomerang, and I will be able to have my best week over coming off of my worst week ever, so here are my Week 9 picks:
As per usual, all point spreads come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17879573/college-football-full-list-week-9-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Michigan -21.5 at Michigan State (Saturday at noon)
I was sitting in the Axe and Palm at Old Union on the Stanford campus watching their meeting last year, and was watching live when Michigan State pulled out the incredibly unlikely victory when the Michigan punter struggled catching the snap and the Michigan State blocked the punt and returned it for a game winning touchdown.
Michigan is vastly improved this season and definitely looks like a playoff team. The Wolverines are undefeated and their only close game was their 14-7 victory over a tough Wisconsin team. They have dominated in their other six wins, winning by an average margin of 42.7 points. Michigan ranks third in the FBS in scoring offense.
Yet, an equally significant, if not more significant, reason for Michigan's success so far has been their suffocating defense. They lead the FBS in both total offense and scoring offense. Jabril Peppers might be the most talented player in the country, dominating on offense, defense, and special teams.
After an impressive 2015 season (who can forget Michael Geiger celebrating kicking the game-winning field goal against Ohio State by running down the field and swinging his arm wildly like a windmill, so GIF-worthy) , the Spartans are 2-5 this season and are currently on a five game losing streak. They have yet to look impressive in a single game this season. Against Wisconsin, a comparable team to Michigan on defense (I believe that Michigan is stronger than Wisconsin on offense), the Spartans put up six points, 75 rushing yards, and had four turnovers. Plus, Michigan State ranks 80th in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.
This game should not be close. The Wolverines will dominate every facet of the game en route to an easy victory. I won with the maize and blue earlier this season, and I fully expect to again. Howl!
Duke +6.5 at Georgia Tech (Saturday at noon)
Duke certainly looked impressive against Louisville. If it had not been for a drive-extending roughing the kicker penalty, who knows what would have happened.
A couple weeks ago, Duke faced a triple option team in Army, the second best rushing team in the FBS and held them without a touchdown and almost 200 yards below their season average for rushing yards in a game. They only gave up two third down conversions on 13 attempts and held Army on all four of their fourth down attempts. Redshirt freshman quarterback Danny Jones is starting to hit his groove and look comfortable, the defense has been forcing turnovers, and the offense appears to have gotten its turnover problems under control.
Georgia Tech has lost its last three ACC games. Their dominant triple option attack has not been what it was the past several years. None of their running backs look overly impressive, and their quarterback can't be counted on for much.
The time and circumstances are ripe for a Blue Devils (minor) upset over the Yellow Jackets. I'll take the Devil mask, please!
Louisville -29.5 at Virginia (Saturday at noon)
Louisville ranks first in the FBS in scoring offense and second in total offense. The Cardinals have one of the most talented players in the country in Lamar Jackson, who is the team leader in both passing yards and rushing yards; he has 18 passing touchdowns and 16 rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals also rank in the top 10 in the FBS in total defense.
Louisville's six wins (over some good teams) have come by an average margin of 33.8 points, and, after a close scare against Duke, bounced back with a 41 point victory over a solid N.C. State team.
Virginia has struggled to sustain drives on offense all year, which was especially evident in their lost this past week against UNC. The Cavaliers' only quality win (and one of two overall), which came against Duke, happened because all four of Duke's fourth quarter drives ended in turnovers (including turnovers on downs). Plus, Virginia ranks 100th or worst in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.
On paper and on film, this looks to be a complete blowout. I'm putting on the Cardinal head this week!
Baylor -3 at Texas (Saturday at 3:30)
While I do feel a little bad picking on a team when it's down, I am going to do just that this week with Texas. Other than a decent opening win against Notre Dame (in which they still allowed 47 points), they have not beaten any good teams (yes, UTEP and Iowa State fans, the truth hurts sometime).
After coming into the season with high hopes, the Longhorns are now a disappointing 3-4; their head coach won't be returning next year (though that's not official yet). In their games against Cal and Oklahoma State. talented high-powered spread offenses like Baylor's, the Longhorns gave up 50 and 49 points and 507 and 555 total yards. Texas ranks 95th in the FBS in passing defense.
Baylor on the other hand is 6-0 and hoping for a Big 12 championship. Though their schedule so far has not been too tough (five of their six opponents currently have losing records), the Bears are 10th in the FBS in scoring offense. Baylor's quarterback, Seth Russel, has more touchdowns and fewer interceptions that Texas's quarterback Shane Buechele.
The Longhorns' season will continue to unravel as the Bears remain undefeated. I'm not sure if Bears roar or growl. Either way, Bevo (and Charlie Strong) better watch out!
SMU +3 at Tulane (Saturday at 4 P.M.)
This week's game with two teams from non-Power 5 conferences features a Conference USA matchup, and, therefore, I am feeling quite patriotic.
SMU should be riding high after their convincing upset of the Houston Cougars this past week. The Mustangs have looked strong recently, with quarterback Ben Hicks making good decisions and good throws and their running backs putting up good numbers.
Tulane got blown out this past week 50-27 by Tulsa, a spread offense much like SMU's. The Green Wave is coming off of two losses where they have not looked strong. They've yet to beat a good team, and it just doesn't look like they have it in them this season.
The signs point to a Mustang victory in New Orleans. Pony up!
Game I would most like to be at live: Nebraska at Wisconsin
I think Washington at Utah will be a more exciting game, with two high-powered offenses, but I don't think the environment in Salt Lake City will be close to what it will be in Madison. For me the environment and energy in a stadium is a large part of what makes a football game special.
Nebraska is undefeated and having its best season in a while. Wisconsin is equally strong, with its two losses coming versus Michigan and Ohio State.
Both teams' fans are passionate. Both teams have tough defenses. I expect some smashmouth football in a low scoring game, but I don't expect that to dampen the enthusiasm of the crowd at all.
I have five visiting teams this week. I need a strong week to give me a more presentable record. Here's hoping the football gods smile upon me,
I was correct in stating that Texas Tech had no defense and that Oklahoma would put up over 50 points against them (they put up 66), but I did not realize that Oklahoma's defense would not show up that night either (they gave up a season high 59 points), and thus, did not cover the 14 point spread.
So I am now 17-21-2 on the season. I am disappointed by my record, but I am not giving up hope. There's still time for me to achieve a record that I can be proud of.
I like to think that my luck will rebound like a boomerang, and I will be able to have my best week over coming off of my worst week ever, so here are my Week 9 picks:
As per usual, all point spreads come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17879573/college-football-full-list-week-9-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Michigan -21.5 at Michigan State (Saturday at noon)
I was sitting in the Axe and Palm at Old Union on the Stanford campus watching their meeting last year, and was watching live when Michigan State pulled out the incredibly unlikely victory when the Michigan punter struggled catching the snap and the Michigan State blocked the punt and returned it for a game winning touchdown.
Michigan is vastly improved this season and definitely looks like a playoff team. The Wolverines are undefeated and their only close game was their 14-7 victory over a tough Wisconsin team. They have dominated in their other six wins, winning by an average margin of 42.7 points. Michigan ranks third in the FBS in scoring offense.
Yet, an equally significant, if not more significant, reason for Michigan's success so far has been their suffocating defense. They lead the FBS in both total offense and scoring offense. Jabril Peppers might be the most talented player in the country, dominating on offense, defense, and special teams.
After an impressive 2015 season (who can forget Michael Geiger celebrating kicking the game-winning field goal against Ohio State by running down the field and swinging his arm wildly like a windmill, so GIF-worthy) , the Spartans are 2-5 this season and are currently on a five game losing streak. They have yet to look impressive in a single game this season. Against Wisconsin, a comparable team to Michigan on defense (I believe that Michigan is stronger than Wisconsin on offense), the Spartans put up six points, 75 rushing yards, and had four turnovers. Plus, Michigan State ranks 80th in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.
This game should not be close. The Wolverines will dominate every facet of the game en route to an easy victory. I won with the maize and blue earlier this season, and I fully expect to again. Howl!
Duke +6.5 at Georgia Tech (Saturday at noon)
Duke certainly looked impressive against Louisville. If it had not been for a drive-extending roughing the kicker penalty, who knows what would have happened.
A couple weeks ago, Duke faced a triple option team in Army, the second best rushing team in the FBS and held them without a touchdown and almost 200 yards below their season average for rushing yards in a game. They only gave up two third down conversions on 13 attempts and held Army on all four of their fourth down attempts. Redshirt freshman quarterback Danny Jones is starting to hit his groove and look comfortable, the defense has been forcing turnovers, and the offense appears to have gotten its turnover problems under control.
Georgia Tech has lost its last three ACC games. Their dominant triple option attack has not been what it was the past several years. None of their running backs look overly impressive, and their quarterback can't be counted on for much.
The time and circumstances are ripe for a Blue Devils (minor) upset over the Yellow Jackets. I'll take the Devil mask, please!
Louisville -29.5 at Virginia (Saturday at noon)
Louisville ranks first in the FBS in scoring offense and second in total offense. The Cardinals have one of the most talented players in the country in Lamar Jackson, who is the team leader in both passing yards and rushing yards; he has 18 passing touchdowns and 16 rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals also rank in the top 10 in the FBS in total defense.
Louisville's six wins (over some good teams) have come by an average margin of 33.8 points, and, after a close scare against Duke, bounced back with a 41 point victory over a solid N.C. State team.
Virginia has struggled to sustain drives on offense all year, which was especially evident in their lost this past week against UNC. The Cavaliers' only quality win (and one of two overall), which came against Duke, happened because all four of Duke's fourth quarter drives ended in turnovers (including turnovers on downs). Plus, Virginia ranks 100th or worst in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.
On paper and on film, this looks to be a complete blowout. I'm putting on the Cardinal head this week!
Baylor -3 at Texas (Saturday at 3:30)
While I do feel a little bad picking on a team when it's down, I am going to do just that this week with Texas. Other than a decent opening win against Notre Dame (in which they still allowed 47 points), they have not beaten any good teams (yes, UTEP and Iowa State fans, the truth hurts sometime).
After coming into the season with high hopes, the Longhorns are now a disappointing 3-4; their head coach won't be returning next year (though that's not official yet). In their games against Cal and Oklahoma State. talented high-powered spread offenses like Baylor's, the Longhorns gave up 50 and 49 points and 507 and 555 total yards. Texas ranks 95th in the FBS in passing defense.
Baylor on the other hand is 6-0 and hoping for a Big 12 championship. Though their schedule so far has not been too tough (five of their six opponents currently have losing records), the Bears are 10th in the FBS in scoring offense. Baylor's quarterback, Seth Russel, has more touchdowns and fewer interceptions that Texas's quarterback Shane Buechele.
The Longhorns' season will continue to unravel as the Bears remain undefeated. I'm not sure if Bears roar or growl. Either way, Bevo (and Charlie Strong) better watch out!
SMU +3 at Tulane (Saturday at 4 P.M.)
This week's game with two teams from non-Power 5 conferences features a Conference USA matchup, and, therefore, I am feeling quite patriotic.
SMU should be riding high after their convincing upset of the Houston Cougars this past week. The Mustangs have looked strong recently, with quarterback Ben Hicks making good decisions and good throws and their running backs putting up good numbers.
Tulane got blown out this past week 50-27 by Tulsa, a spread offense much like SMU's. The Green Wave is coming off of two losses where they have not looked strong. They've yet to beat a good team, and it just doesn't look like they have it in them this season.
The signs point to a Mustang victory in New Orleans. Pony up!
Game I would most like to be at live: Nebraska at Wisconsin
I think Washington at Utah will be a more exciting game, with two high-powered offenses, but I don't think the environment in Salt Lake City will be close to what it will be in Madison. For me the environment and energy in a stadium is a large part of what makes a football game special.
Nebraska is undefeated and having its best season in a while. Wisconsin is equally strong, with its two losses coming versus Michigan and Ohio State.
Both teams' fans are passionate. Both teams have tough defenses. I expect some smashmouth football in a low scoring game, but I don't expect that to dampen the enthusiasm of the crowd at all.
I have five visiting teams this week. I need a strong week to give me a more presentable record. Here's hoping the football gods smile upon me,
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