Week 14

The Professor is back! Now that's what I'm talking about! It took 13 weeks, but I finally had my first 4-1 week. After all the games that I was way off on, it felt good to nail that Mississippi State pick.

I was able to accomplish my goal of saving face a little bit. My record for the season is now a slightly more respectable 27-35-3.

Conference Championship Week (which includes some games that are not conference championships) should feature lots of interesting games.

I would still like a better overall record, so here are my Week 14 picks:

As usual, all lines come from Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18163759/college-football-full-list-week-14-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook. All times are Eastern Time Zone.

Colorado +7 at Washington (Friday at 9 P.M. (Pac-12 Championship)

You don't have to wait for Saturday to be treated to an exciting game. This matchup to see who is the best in the West (somehow Colorado qualifies as the West), which features two top-10 teams with a combined three losses should be a treat.

I'll admit I was skeptical when Washington was ranked 14th in the AP Preseason rankings, but I am now a full-on believer. Washington has demonstrated their dominance on both sides of the ball. I know the loss to USC may have damaged Jake Browning's stock a little bit, but I would take him to lead my team over any other quarterback. Not only are his yardage and touchdown totals amazing, but he makes good decisions. I have seen this repeatedly by watching him, and it is reinforced by the fact that he has only 7 interceptions to his 40 passing touchdowns.

Add to that the fact that Washington is tied for tenth in the FBS in scoring defense and is 17th in total defense. The Huskies rank 11th in the FBS in third down defense. They also lead the FBS in turnovers forced and are tied for first in turnover margin.

Colorado is having their best season in quite a while. The Buffaloes are on a six-game winning streak. They have won their past three games, which have all been against strong Pac-12 teams. However, they gave up over 20 points in each of those victories. They are facing a better offense and a better team this week, which I don't think they can handle.

 A team that puts up the numbers that Washington does on offense, defense, with turnovers, and on third downs, is going to be hard to beat. Huskies take the 2016 Pac-12 crown.

I don't think Washington will get much respect from the media when going against a Big-10 or SEC team in the College Football Playoff, but I think they are as talented as any team in the country*.

*not named Alabama

Temple +3 at Navy (Saturday at noon) (Conference USA Championship)

Navy is the second best rushing team in the FBS. The Midshipmen are averaging a mind-blowing 342 rushing yards per game this season. That statistic alone demonstrates their dominance. Incredibly, despite ranking 20th in the FBS in time of possession (as you might expect), Navy ranks 11in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 42.3 points per game.

Navy has shown that they can contain and outscore high-powered spread offenses. Their past two games, 66-31 and 75-31 wins over Eastern Carolina and SMU, bode well. The Temple team runs a similar offense to those two teams, and the points that Navy put up in each of those games should speak for itself about their offensive capabilities.

The triple option offense that Navy runs is hard to contain (as well as fun to watch). Temple lost 28-13 to Army, another triple option team, in the opening week. In that loss to Army, Temple gave up 329 rushing yards and was out-possessed by over ten minutes. Navy's triple option is better than Army's (though I am excited to see the two teams go head-to-head next week). Based on that performance and Navy's performance throughout this season, I think the home fans in Annapolis are going to be happy.

The Midshipmen win the Conference USA Championship in an impressive show of offensive dominance. Anchors Aweigh!

New Mexico State +11.5 at South Alabama (Saturday at 1 P.M.)

Why not pick an absolute meaningless game between two sub-par teams on Conference Championship Week?

New Mexico State ranks in the bottom eight of the FBS (128 teams) in both total defense and scoring defense. South Alabama ranks in the top 49 in the FBS in both categories. The two teams have similar offensive statistics.

The Aggies have three wins; Jaguars have five. The Aggies only victory over anything resembling a quality team came in Week 2 over inter-state rival New Mexico. The Jaguars have two wins over highly talented teams (Mississippi State and San Diego State).

New Mexico State's extremely weak defense is the main reason why I feel confident giving the points in this game. South Alabama playing for bowl eligibility, which could add extra motivation.

I can't say I'll be watching this game, but I am confident that South Alabama will win this Sun Belt matchup by at least 12 points.

San Diego State +7 at Wyoming (Saturday at 7:45 P.M.) (Mountain West Championship)

I do plan on watching the Mountain West Championship game. Both teams are talented, and San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey is a sight to watch! Pumphrey enters this game with 1,908 rushing yards this season and is third on the NCAA all-time career rushing yards list. If you haven't seen any of his highlights, you need to.

Wyoming has a strong run game also. Their running back, Brian Hill has 1,674 rushing yards. The Cowboys have 2,615 rushing yards as a team (the Aztecs have 3,311 rushing yards as a team. Wyoming has the 33rd most rushing yards per game in the FBS; San Diego State has the seventh most rushing yards per game.

So, both teams have strong running attacks, and I don't think these differences in rushing statistics is that significant. However, what I believe is highly significant is the difference in their rushing defenses. San Diego State ranks 12th in the FBS, giving up an average of just 113.3 yards per game. Wyoming, on the other hand ranks 87th in the FBS, giving up an average of 199.4 yards per game. Wyoming is also giving up 14.7 more points per game than San Diego State and 157.2 more total yards per game than San Diego State.

The Aztecs shut down the Cowboys running game as Pumphrey shines. San Diego State will win the Mountain West Conference in 2016.

Virginia Tech +10 at Clemson (Saturday at 8 P.M.) (ACC Championship)

You'd be hard pressed to argue against Clemson being one of the top four teams in the country this season. The Tigers have quality wins over Louisville and Florida State and have beat several teams that are above average.

Clemson is averaging 40 points and over 500 yards a game. Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams are among the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver trio in the nation. The Tigers also happen to rank in the top ten in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense. That's quite a combination!

Virginia Tech has not beat a single team that is currently ranked in the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings (Clemson has beat three). The Hokies are averaging 56 fewer yards and 5.2 fewer points per game than the Tigers. Importantly Clemson's third down conversion percentage is over 50 percent and 9.5 percentage points higher than Virginia Tech's. In a game between two strong offenses and two great defenses, Clemson's ability to convert third downs will make the difference. Add to all of this the fact that they need a win in this game to make the Playoff, and the Tigers should be just about unstoppable.

The one-point loss to Pittsburgh on a last second field goal, which ruined Clemson's perfect season was surely difficult to swallow, but Tiger players and fans alike can gain some solace by the fact that the Tigers will win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.

As if being a Hokie (which my research shows is some kind of turkey) wasn't bad enough on Thanksgiving, they will suffer just as much at the hands (paws? claws?) of the Tigers.

I went 2-3 in my over/under picks last week. Here are my picks for this week.

Over/unders are listed with each matchup on ESPN.com's NCAA Football Scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/14

Colorado at Washington Over 58
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Under 77
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky Over 80
San Diego State at Wyoming Under 62.5
Wisconsin at Penn State Under 47.5

Wins:
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5 (79 points)
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5 (55 points)
Losses:
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5 (44 points)
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5 (55 points)
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5 (57 points)

I'm looking to finish the season strong!