Week 13

The Professor is back! I will use the euphemism that I have really enjoyed writing this blog and have learned a lot in the process. Week 12 was yet another rough week for me; I went 1-4. My pick of Stanford won (Beat Cal in the 119th Big Game) and covered, but my picks of Ohio State, UTEP, Maryland, and Texas Tech lost.

I am now 23-34-3 on the season. At this point I am just hoping to save face a little bit.

Here are my (hopefully face-saving) picks:

As usual, the lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18112671/college-football-full-list-week-13-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone

Toledo +9.5 at Western Michigan (Friday at 5 P.M.)

I am going for a rare Friday pick this week. With the exception of a one point victory over Northwestern (a Big Ten team) in Week 1, Western Michigan's smallest margin of victory is 14 points, and their average margin of victory is 25.2 points.

It is not mere coincidence that the Broncos are undefeated. They are tied with Ohio State for the fifth best scoring offense in the FBS. They also are tied for the best turnover margin in the FBS at +15. Quarterback Zach Terrel has 27 passing touchdowns and only one interception! Wide receiver Corey Davis is finally getting some publicity for being incredibly talented.

Toledo is strong. Quarterback Logan Woodside, running back, Kareem Hunt, and wide receiver Cody Thompson  Woodside and Thompson rank first in the MAC in passing yards and receiving yards, while Hunt ranks third in the MAC in rushing yards.

Both teams are strong on offense; expect the game to be high scoring. I think the difference will be turnovers, Toledo's turnover margin is -1, and defense, Western Michigan is giving up 37.5 fewer yards per game than Toledo. A turnover or two here and a defensive stop or two here will give Wester Michigan the separation they need from Toledo.

College Gameday this past week showed the passion that these players have and the passion that their fans have. It also showed what a great leader their head coach, P.J. Fleck, is. You better believe the Broncos are going to throw everything they have at Toledo to keep their undefeated season, and a chance at a New Year's 6 bowl game, alive. Kalamazoo, Michigan (which is really fun to say) will be rocking as they cheer on their Broncos 

As Lee Corse did this past week on College Gameday, I'm reaching for the Bronco head. 12-0!

Arizona State -2.5 at Arizona (Friday at 9:30 P.M.)

I'm actually going for two Friday games this week. Although Arizona State is on a five game losing streak, they have lost to some very good teams (of which Arizona is not one). In their 5-1 start, the Sun Devils showed amazing offensive abilities, becoming one of the best offenses in the FBS in both yardage and points.

Quarterback Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage, who were instrumental in Arizona State's strong start, are back healthy. They should be the same team that I saw in September.

Meanwhile, Arizona is 2-9 with their only two wins coming over Grambling State and Hawaii. In PAC-12 play, the Wildcats are 0-8 giving up an average of 44.8 points per game, including 69 to Washington State, which has a high-powered spread offense similar to Arizona State.

Arizona State is tired of being beat by excellent teams, and they will make the most of this opportunity to put up big numbers against a weak team again.

I'm taking the pitchfork and going with Sparky this week!

Rutgers +13.5 at Maryland (Saturday at noon)

This pick has much more to do with Rutgers than it does Maryland. The Scarlet Knights are 0-8 in Big Ten play, scoring an average of just 9.1 points per game and giving up an average of 41.1 points per game. They have been shut out in four of those eight games, including a couple blowout losses.

Maryland only has one Big Ten win. The Terrapins' only blowout losses were to Ohio State and Michigan, two of the best teams in the country. They've looked good for long portions of games, and, despite the final score of 28-7, they put up a good fight against Nebraska last week.

Maryland is scoring nine more points per game than Rutgers and is giving up nine fewer points per game. Plus, Maryland needs a win to become bowl eligible. Rutgers has shown no sign of being able to do anything, and, quite frankly are a disgrace to the Big Ten (though the other teams might like that because they get to play them).

It's a rough year to be a Rutgers fan. At least you're not a Browns fan. Things will continue to unravel for the Scarlet Knights, so, for the second week in a row, I say Cowabunga!

Auburn +17.5 vs. Alabama (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)

Frankly, as far as the great teams in the FBS, there's Alabama and then there's everybody else (which is why people had a lot of fun with the fact that Alabama trailed Chattanooga at the end of the first quarter last week). Alabama ranks in the top two in the FBS in total defense, run defense, and scoring defense. The Crimson Tide has given up a total of 30 points over the past five weeks.

Alabama's game against LSU (which was an exciting game to watch) was a great example of why Alabama is the top team in the nation by far and has the longest current win streak in the FBS at 23 games. The Crimson Tide dominated both lines of scrimmage. They eventually just wore down a talented LSU team. Alabama's biggest advantage might be their physical talent.

Auburn is 8-3 and has some quality wins, but I don't think they can compete with Alabama's physicality. The difference I've seen watching these two teams play is substantial. As if they needed more, Alabama's offensive line outweighs Auburn's by 16 pounds (though both average over 300 pounds). Both teams play a 3-4 defense, but Alabamas defensive line outweigh Auburn's defensive line by 65 pounds, and Alabama's linebackers outweigh Auburn's by 36 pounds. Though Alabama's big guys are a little bigger than Auburn's, both are enormous and move deceivingly quickly.

Auburn is a good team, but they are no match for Alabama physically.

The Tide's been rolling for quite a while now and it will continue to roll. Roll Tide!

Mississippi State +7.5 at Ole Miss  (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)

The Egg Bowl might be my favorite name of any college football rivalry. Though the Egg Bowl will not feature two of the top teams as it usually does; both teams have losing records. I really like Mississippi State's quarterback, Nick Fitzgerald. He is a good passer, but his running ability really sets him apart. He leads the Bulldogs in rushing with 985 rushing yards, and he also has 12 rushing touchdowns. He has picked up many key third downs with his ability to scramble.

Ole Miss's quarterback, freshman Shea Patterson, will be making just his third start of the season. I don't think he will be able to perform well in this game, particularly given that his offensive line is made of two freshman, two sophomores, and a junior, so they don't have tons of experience either.

Similar teams, but the quarterbacks will make the difference. ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) gives Ole Miss an 82 percent chance to win this game, but I still like the Bulldogs to upset the Rebels.

Mississippi State gets the football trophy (which somebody thought was an egg, even though it's clearly a football). Starkville over Oxford!


I went 2-3 with my over/under picks last week. My over/under selections for this week are:
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5

For reference, here are my over/under picks from last week:
Wins:
UTEP at Rice Over 58 (68 points)
Virginia at Georgia Tech Under 56 (48 points)
Losses:Missouri at Tennessee Under 67 (100 points!)
Louisville at Houston Over 68.5 (46 points)
Arizona State at Washington Over 64.5 (62 points) 

Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!