The Professor is back! I was not able to have the strong finish to the season that I had hoped for. I went 2-3 in Week 14. My picks of Washington and San Diego State won, but my picks of South Alabama, and Clemson lost.
So, I am finishing a disappointing 29-38-3 (0.414) on the season. Not the performance I had hoped for, but I am chalking that up to this being my rookie season as The Professor. I have decided that The Professor will return next season (and try for a better performance).
The college football regular season may be done, but there is still plenty of action. I like the tradition of the Army-Navy game having its own weekend (if you don't count FCS playoffs). There are also many, many bowl games to come.
Here are my predictions for the Army-Navy game and each bowl. I am adding my predictions for the over/under to my normal predictions against the line.
Lines and over/unders for the bowl games are from: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football-bowls/odds-lines/
Army +6.5 vs. Navy (neutral site) (Saturday at 3 P.M. Eastern Time Zone) Under 47
One of the main reasons why Navy got blown out this past weekend in the American Athletic Conference Championship game was their inability to stop Temple's run game.
This game features two of the top three running teams in the country, both averaging over 325 rushing yards per game. I am adding the over/under since this is the only game this week. I am taking the under because I anticipate several long drives, and therefore not that many scoring opportunities.
The difference will be the two run defenses. Army's run defense is ranked 19th in the FBS, giving up 124.4 rushing yards per game. Whereas, Navy's run defense 67th in the FBS 176.3 rushing yards per game.
Also, Navy will have a new starting quarterback, Zach Abbey, who started the season as the third-string quarterback but will start this important game due to injuries to the two quarterbacks above him in the depth chart, including Will Worth whose injury came in the conference championship game against Temple this past weekend. Abbey's inexperience running the triple option offense, which depends on quick quarterback reads, will hinder Navy.
The Black Knights prevail, ending Navy's 14-game winning streak in this rivalry and finally get to sing their alma mater second. Regardless, it is a great showcase of our nation's finest young men.
There are far too many bowl games for me to analyze, so I will just give you my predictions for each game. I will give you my prediction against the line, as well as my prediction for the over/under.
New Mexico Bowl (December 17)
New Mexico -7 vs. Texas-San Antonio Under 62.5
Las Vegas Bowl (December 17)
San Diego State +3 vs. Houston Under 57
Camelia Bowl (December 17)
Toledo -1 vs. Appalachian State Over 56.5
Cure Bowl (December 17) (That's right; Central Michigan and Arkansas State's playing in this game is supposed to somehow raise awareness for breast cancer)
Central Florida -5.5 vs. Arkansas State Over 49
New Orleans Bowl (December 17)
Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5 vs. Southern Mississippi Under 58
Miami Beach Bowl (December 19)
Tulsa -11.5 vs. Central Michigan Over 68
Boca Raton Bowl (December 20)
Western Kentucky -4.5 vs. Memphis Over 77
Poinsettia Bowl (December 21)
Wyoming +8.5 vs. BYU Under 57
Potato Bowl (December 22)
Idaho +13.5 vs. Colorado State (come on, how can you not take Idaho in the Potato Bowl?) Under 64
Bahamas Bowl (December 23)
Eastern Michigan +3 vs. Old Dominion Over 64 (So, you didn't make the playoff, but you get to go to the Bahamas, not a bad consolation)
Armed Forces Bowl (December 23)
Louisiana Tech +1.5 vs. Navy
Dollar General Bowl (December 23) (proof that the NCAA will let anybody sponsor a bowl game)
Ohio +3.5 vs. Troy Over 48.5
Hawaii Bowl (December 24)
Between Hawaii and Middle Tennessee State, but the website appears to have omitted this game, which is not bad considering the quantity of bowl games and that this is the only one they missed.
St. Petersburg Bowl (December 26)
Mississippi State -12.5 vs. Miami (Ohio) Over 58
Quick Lane Bowl (December 26) (more proof that the NCAA will let anybody sponsor a bowl game)
Boston College +2 vs. Maryland Under 44.5
Independence Bowl (December 26)
Vanderbilt +4.5 vs. North Carolina State Over 44
Heart of Dallas Bowl (December 27)
Army -9 vs. North Texas (for some reason the website does not show an over/under number for this game)
Military Bowl (December 27) (which is somehow different than the Armed Forces Bowl being played four days prior)
Temple -12.5 vs. Wake Forest Over 41
Holiday Bowl (December 27)
Washington State -6.5 vs. Minnesota Over 60
Cactus Bowl (December 27)
Boise State -7.5 vs. Baylor Over 66.5
Pinstripe Bowl (December 28)
Pittsburgh -5 vs. Northwestern Under 66.5
Russell Athletic Bowl (December 28)
West Virginia +3 vs. Miami (Florida) Over 56.5
Foster Farms Bowl (December 28)
Utah -8 vs. Indiana Over 54
Texas Bowl (December 28)
Texas A&M -2 vs. Kansas State Under 56.5
Birmingham Bowl (December 29)
South Florida -10.5 vs. South Carolina Over 62.5
Belk Bowl (December 29)
Virginia Tech -7 vs. Arkansas Under 62.5
Alamo Bowl (December 29)
Oklahoma State +3 vs. Colorado Over 62.5
Arizona Bowl (December 30)
Air Force -12.5 vs. South Alabama Over 57.5
Liberty Bowl (December 30)
Georgia -1 vs. TCU Under 49
Sun Bowl (December 30)
Stanford -3.5 vs. North Carolina Under 54
Music City Bowl (December 30)
Tennessee -3 vs. Nebraska Under 61
Orange Bowl (December 30)
Michigan -7 vs. Florida State Over 56
Peach Bowl (December 31)
Washington +16.5 vs. Alabama Under 54.5
Fiesta Bowl (December 31)
Ohio State -3.5 vs Clemson Over 61.5
Taxslayer Bowl (December 31) (more proof that the NCAA will let anybody sponsor a bowl, or maybe just that they are desperate for bowl game sponsors)
Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Kentucky Under 60.5
Citrus Bowl (December 31) (the cheaper knock-off of the Orange Bowl)
Louisville +3.5 vs. LSU Under 60
Outback Bowl (January 2)
Florida -2.5 vs. Iowa Under 40.5
Cotton Bowl (January 2)
Western Michigan +7.5 vs. Wisconsin Under 54
Rose Bowl (January 2)
Penn State +7 vs. USC Over 63
Sugar Bowl (January 2)
Oklahoma -4.5 vs. Auburn Over 62.5
College Football Playoff National Championship (January 9)
There is no line on this game right now, since the teams that are playing in this game have yet to be determined, but I think that Alabama will play Ohio State for the National Championship in Tampa, and my prediction for the final score is Alabama 31-Ohio State 17
Thanks for being a fan of The Professor. Enjoy bowl season! Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!
Friday, December 9, 2016
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Week 14
The Professor is back! Now that's what I'm talking about! It took 13 weeks, but I finally had my first 4-1 week. After all the games that I was way off on, it felt good to nail that Mississippi State pick.
I was able to accomplish my goal of saving face a little bit. My record for the season is now a slightly more respectable 27-35-3.
Conference Championship Week (which includes some games that are not conference championships) should feature lots of interesting games.
I would still like a better overall record, so here are my Week 14 picks:
As usual, all lines come from Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18163759/college-football-full-list-week-14-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook. All times are Eastern Time Zone.
Colorado +7 at Washington (Friday at 9 P.M. (Pac-12 Championship)
You don't have to wait for Saturday to be treated to an exciting game. This matchup to see who is the best in the West (somehow Colorado qualifies as the West), which features two top-10 teams with a combined three losses should be a treat.
I'll admit I was skeptical when Washington was ranked 14th in the AP Preseason rankings, but I am now a full-on believer. Washington has demonstrated their dominance on both sides of the ball. I know the loss to USC may have damaged Jake Browning's stock a little bit, but I would take him to lead my team over any other quarterback. Not only are his yardage and touchdown totals amazing, but he makes good decisions. I have seen this repeatedly by watching him, and it is reinforced by the fact that he has only 7 interceptions to his 40 passing touchdowns.
Add to that the fact that Washington is tied for tenth in the FBS in scoring defense and is 17th in total defense. The Huskies rank 11th in the FBS in third down defense. They also lead the FBS in turnovers forced and are tied for first in turnover margin.
Colorado is having their best season in quite a while. The Buffaloes are on a six-game winning streak. They have won their past three games, which have all been against strong Pac-12 teams. However, they gave up over 20 points in each of those victories. They are facing a better offense and a better team this week, which I don't think they can handle.
A team that puts up the numbers that Washington does on offense, defense, with turnovers, and on third downs, is going to be hard to beat. Huskies take the 2016 Pac-12 crown.
I don't think Washington will get much respect from the media when going against a Big-10 or SEC team in the College Football Playoff, but I think they are as talented as any team in the country*.
*not named Alabama
Temple +3 at Navy (Saturday at noon) (Conference USA Championship)
Navy is the second best rushing team in the FBS. The Midshipmen are averaging a mind-blowing 342 rushing yards per game this season. That statistic alone demonstrates their dominance. Incredibly, despite ranking 20th in the FBS in time of possession (as you might expect), Navy ranks 11in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 42.3 points per game.
Navy has shown that they can contain and outscore high-powered spread offenses. Their past two games, 66-31 and 75-31 wins over Eastern Carolina and SMU, bode well. The Temple team runs a similar offense to those two teams, and the points that Navy put up in each of those games should speak for itself about their offensive capabilities.
The triple option offense that Navy runs is hard to contain (as well as fun to watch). Temple lost 28-13 to Army, another triple option team, in the opening week. In that loss to Army, Temple gave up 329 rushing yards and was out-possessed by over ten minutes. Navy's triple option is better than Army's (though I am excited to see the two teams go head-to-head next week). Based on that performance and Navy's performance throughout this season, I think the home fans in Annapolis are going to be happy.
The Midshipmen win the Conference USA Championship in an impressive show of offensive dominance. Anchors Aweigh!
New Mexico State +11.5 at South Alabama (Saturday at 1 P.M.)
Why not pick an absolute meaningless game between two sub-par teams on Conference Championship Week?
New Mexico State ranks in the bottom eight of the FBS (128 teams) in both total defense and scoring defense. South Alabama ranks in the top 49 in the FBS in both categories. The two teams have similar offensive statistics.
The Aggies have three wins; Jaguars have five. The Aggies only victory over anything resembling a quality team came in Week 2 over inter-state rival New Mexico. The Jaguars have two wins over highly talented teams (Mississippi State and San Diego State).
New Mexico State's extremely weak defense is the main reason why I feel confident giving the points in this game. South Alabama playing for bowl eligibility, which could add extra motivation.
I can't say I'll be watching this game, but I am confident that South Alabama will win this Sun Belt matchup by at least 12 points.
San Diego State +7 at Wyoming (Saturday at 7:45 P.M.) (Mountain West Championship)
I do plan on watching the Mountain West Championship game. Both teams are talented, and San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey is a sight to watch! Pumphrey enters this game with 1,908 rushing yards this season and is third on the NCAA all-time career rushing yards list. If you haven't seen any of his highlights, you need to.
Wyoming has a strong run game also. Their running back, Brian Hill has 1,674 rushing yards. The Cowboys have 2,615 rushing yards as a team (the Aztecs have 3,311 rushing yards as a team. Wyoming has the 33rd most rushing yards per game in the FBS; San Diego State has the seventh most rushing yards per game.
So, both teams have strong running attacks, and I don't think these differences in rushing statistics is that significant. However, what I believe is highly significant is the difference in their rushing defenses. San Diego State ranks 12th in the FBS, giving up an average of just 113.3 yards per game. Wyoming, on the other hand ranks 87th in the FBS, giving up an average of 199.4 yards per game. Wyoming is also giving up 14.7 more points per game than San Diego State and 157.2 more total yards per game than San Diego State.
The Aztecs shut down the Cowboys running game as Pumphrey shines. San Diego State will win the Mountain West Conference in 2016.
Virginia Tech +10 at Clemson (Saturday at 8 P.M.) (ACC Championship)
You'd be hard pressed to argue against Clemson being one of the top four teams in the country this season. The Tigers have quality wins over Louisville and Florida State and have beat several teams that are above average.
Clemson is averaging 40 points and over 500 yards a game. Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams are among the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver trio in the nation. The Tigers also happen to rank in the top ten in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense. That's quite a combination!
Virginia Tech has not beat a single team that is currently ranked in the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings (Clemson has beat three). The Hokies are averaging 56 fewer yards and 5.2 fewer points per game than the Tigers. Importantly Clemson's third down conversion percentage is over 50 percent and 9.5 percentage points higher than Virginia Tech's. In a game between two strong offenses and two great defenses, Clemson's ability to convert third downs will make the difference. Add to all of this the fact that they need a win in this game to make the Playoff, and the Tigers should be just about unstoppable.
The one-point loss to Pittsburgh on a last second field goal, which ruined Clemson's perfect season was surely difficult to swallow, but Tiger players and fans alike can gain some solace by the fact that the Tigers will win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.
As if being a Hokie (which my research shows is some kind of turkey) wasn't bad enough on Thanksgiving, they will suffer just as much at the hands (paws? claws?) of the Tigers.
I went 2-3 in my over/under picks last week. Here are my picks for this week.
Over/unders are listed with each matchup on ESPN.com's NCAA Football Scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/14
Colorado at Washington Over 58
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Under 77
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky Over 80
San Diego State at Wyoming Under 62.5
Wisconsin at Penn State Under 47.5
Wins:
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5 (79 points)
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5 (55 points)
Losses:
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5 (44 points)
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5 (55 points)
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5 (57 points)
I'm looking to finish the season strong!
I was able to accomplish my goal of saving face a little bit. My record for the season is now a slightly more respectable 27-35-3.
Conference Championship Week (which includes some games that are not conference championships) should feature lots of interesting games.
I would still like a better overall record, so here are my Week 14 picks:
As usual, all lines come from Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18163759/college-football-full-list-week-14-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook. All times are Eastern Time Zone.
Colorado +7 at Washington (Friday at 9 P.M. (Pac-12 Championship)
You don't have to wait for Saturday to be treated to an exciting game. This matchup to see who is the best in the West (somehow Colorado qualifies as the West), which features two top-10 teams with a combined three losses should be a treat.
I'll admit I was skeptical when Washington was ranked 14th in the AP Preseason rankings, but I am now a full-on believer. Washington has demonstrated their dominance on both sides of the ball. I know the loss to USC may have damaged Jake Browning's stock a little bit, but I would take him to lead my team over any other quarterback. Not only are his yardage and touchdown totals amazing, but he makes good decisions. I have seen this repeatedly by watching him, and it is reinforced by the fact that he has only 7 interceptions to his 40 passing touchdowns.
Add to that the fact that Washington is tied for tenth in the FBS in scoring defense and is 17th in total defense. The Huskies rank 11th in the FBS in third down defense. They also lead the FBS in turnovers forced and are tied for first in turnover margin.
Colorado is having their best season in quite a while. The Buffaloes are on a six-game winning streak. They have won their past three games, which have all been against strong Pac-12 teams. However, they gave up over 20 points in each of those victories. They are facing a better offense and a better team this week, which I don't think they can handle.
A team that puts up the numbers that Washington does on offense, defense, with turnovers, and on third downs, is going to be hard to beat. Huskies take the 2016 Pac-12 crown.
I don't think Washington will get much respect from the media when going against a Big-10 or SEC team in the College Football Playoff, but I think they are as talented as any team in the country*.
*not named Alabama
Temple +3 at Navy (Saturday at noon) (Conference USA Championship)
Navy is the second best rushing team in the FBS. The Midshipmen are averaging a mind-blowing 342 rushing yards per game this season. That statistic alone demonstrates their dominance. Incredibly, despite ranking 20th in the FBS in time of possession (as you might expect), Navy ranks 11in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 42.3 points per game.
Navy has shown that they can contain and outscore high-powered spread offenses. Their past two games, 66-31 and 75-31 wins over Eastern Carolina and SMU, bode well. The Temple team runs a similar offense to those two teams, and the points that Navy put up in each of those games should speak for itself about their offensive capabilities.
The triple option offense that Navy runs is hard to contain (as well as fun to watch). Temple lost 28-13 to Army, another triple option team, in the opening week. In that loss to Army, Temple gave up 329 rushing yards and was out-possessed by over ten minutes. Navy's triple option is better than Army's (though I am excited to see the two teams go head-to-head next week). Based on that performance and Navy's performance throughout this season, I think the home fans in Annapolis are going to be happy.
The Midshipmen win the Conference USA Championship in an impressive show of offensive dominance. Anchors Aweigh!
New Mexico State +11.5 at South Alabama (Saturday at 1 P.M.)
Why not pick an absolute meaningless game between two sub-par teams on Conference Championship Week?
New Mexico State ranks in the bottom eight of the FBS (128 teams) in both total defense and scoring defense. South Alabama ranks in the top 49 in the FBS in both categories. The two teams have similar offensive statistics.
The Aggies have three wins; Jaguars have five. The Aggies only victory over anything resembling a quality team came in Week 2 over inter-state rival New Mexico. The Jaguars have two wins over highly talented teams (Mississippi State and San Diego State).
New Mexico State's extremely weak defense is the main reason why I feel confident giving the points in this game. South Alabama playing for bowl eligibility, which could add extra motivation.
I can't say I'll be watching this game, but I am confident that South Alabama will win this Sun Belt matchup by at least 12 points.
San Diego State +7 at Wyoming (Saturday at 7:45 P.M.) (Mountain West Championship)
I do plan on watching the Mountain West Championship game. Both teams are talented, and San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey is a sight to watch! Pumphrey enters this game with 1,908 rushing yards this season and is third on the NCAA all-time career rushing yards list. If you haven't seen any of his highlights, you need to.
Wyoming has a strong run game also. Their running back, Brian Hill has 1,674 rushing yards. The Cowboys have 2,615 rushing yards as a team (the Aztecs have 3,311 rushing yards as a team. Wyoming has the 33rd most rushing yards per game in the FBS; San Diego State has the seventh most rushing yards per game.
So, both teams have strong running attacks, and I don't think these differences in rushing statistics is that significant. However, what I believe is highly significant is the difference in their rushing defenses. San Diego State ranks 12th in the FBS, giving up an average of just 113.3 yards per game. Wyoming, on the other hand ranks 87th in the FBS, giving up an average of 199.4 yards per game. Wyoming is also giving up 14.7 more points per game than San Diego State and 157.2 more total yards per game than San Diego State.
The Aztecs shut down the Cowboys running game as Pumphrey shines. San Diego State will win the Mountain West Conference in 2016.
Virginia Tech +10 at Clemson (Saturday at 8 P.M.) (ACC Championship)
You'd be hard pressed to argue against Clemson being one of the top four teams in the country this season. The Tigers have quality wins over Louisville and Florida State and have beat several teams that are above average.
Clemson is averaging 40 points and over 500 yards a game. Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams are among the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver trio in the nation. The Tigers also happen to rank in the top ten in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense. That's quite a combination!
Virginia Tech has not beat a single team that is currently ranked in the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings (Clemson has beat three). The Hokies are averaging 56 fewer yards and 5.2 fewer points per game than the Tigers. Importantly Clemson's third down conversion percentage is over 50 percent and 9.5 percentage points higher than Virginia Tech's. In a game between two strong offenses and two great defenses, Clemson's ability to convert third downs will make the difference. Add to all of this the fact that they need a win in this game to make the Playoff, and the Tigers should be just about unstoppable.
The one-point loss to Pittsburgh on a last second field goal, which ruined Clemson's perfect season was surely difficult to swallow, but Tiger players and fans alike can gain some solace by the fact that the Tigers will win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.
As if being a Hokie (which my research shows is some kind of turkey) wasn't bad enough on Thanksgiving, they will suffer just as much at the hands (paws? claws?) of the Tigers.
I went 2-3 in my over/under picks last week. Here are my picks for this week.
Over/unders are listed with each matchup on ESPN.com's NCAA Football Scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/14
Colorado at Washington Over 58
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Under 77
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky Over 80
San Diego State at Wyoming Under 62.5
Wisconsin at Penn State Under 47.5
Wins:
Central Florida at South Florida Over 66.5 (79 points)
Nevada at UNLV Under 62.5 (55 points)
Losses:
Florida at Florida State Over 45.5 (44 points)
Georgia Tech at Georgia Under 48.5 (55 points)
Michigan State at Penn State Under 54.5 (57 points)
I'm looking to finish the season strong!
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