The Professor is back! Yikes! Last week was rough, my worst week ever. I went 0-4 with one push. My picks of Army, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Washington State lost, while my pick of Oklahoma State pushed.
I was correct in stating that Texas Tech had no defense and that Oklahoma would put up over 50 points against them (they put up 66), but I did not realize that Oklahoma's defense would not show up that night either (they gave up a season high 59 points), and thus, did not cover the 14 point spread.
So I am now 17-21-2 on the season. I am disappointed by my record, but I am not giving up hope. There's still time for me to achieve a record that I can be proud of.
I like to think that my luck will rebound like a boomerang, and I will be able to have my best week over coming off of my worst week ever, so here are my Week 9 picks:
As per usual, all point spreads come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17879573/college-football-full-list-week-9-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Michigan -21.5 at Michigan State (Saturday at noon)
I was sitting in the Axe and Palm at Old Union on the Stanford campus watching their meeting last year, and was watching live when Michigan State pulled out the incredibly unlikely victory when the Michigan punter struggled catching the snap and the Michigan State blocked the punt and returned it for a game winning touchdown.
Michigan is vastly improved this season and definitely looks like a playoff team. The Wolverines are undefeated and their only close game was their 14-7 victory over a tough Wisconsin team. They have dominated in their other six wins, winning by an average margin of 42.7 points. Michigan ranks third in the FBS in scoring offense.
Yet, an equally significant, if not more significant, reason for Michigan's success so far has been their suffocating defense. They lead the FBS in both total offense and scoring offense. Jabril Peppers might be the most talented player in the country, dominating on offense, defense, and special teams.
After an impressive 2015 season (who can forget Michael Geiger celebrating kicking the game-winning field goal against Ohio State by running down the field and swinging his arm wildly like a windmill, so GIF-worthy) , the Spartans are 2-5 this season and are currently on a five game losing streak. They have yet to look impressive in a single game this season. Against Wisconsin, a comparable team to Michigan on defense (I believe that Michigan is stronger than Wisconsin on offense), the Spartans put up six points, 75 rushing yards, and had four turnovers. Plus, Michigan State ranks 80th in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.
This game should not be close. The Wolverines will dominate every facet of the game en route to an easy victory. I won with the maize and blue earlier this season, and I fully expect to again. Howl!
Duke +6.5 at Georgia Tech (Saturday at noon)
Duke certainly looked impressive against Louisville. If it had not been for a drive-extending roughing the kicker penalty, who knows what would have happened.
A couple weeks ago, Duke faced a triple option team in Army, the second best rushing team in the FBS and held them without a touchdown and almost 200 yards below their season average for rushing yards in a game. They only gave up two third down conversions on 13 attempts and held Army on all four of their fourth down attempts. Redshirt freshman quarterback Danny Jones is starting to hit his groove and look comfortable, the defense has been forcing turnovers, and the offense appears to have gotten its turnover problems under control.
Georgia Tech has lost its last three ACC games. Their dominant triple option attack has not been what it was the past several years. None of their running backs look overly impressive, and their quarterback can't be counted on for much.
The time and circumstances are ripe for a Blue Devils (minor) upset over the Yellow Jackets. I'll take the Devil mask, please!
Louisville -29.5 at Virginia (Saturday at noon)
Louisville ranks first in the FBS in scoring offense and second in total offense. The Cardinals have one of the most talented players in the country in Lamar Jackson, who is the team leader in both passing yards and rushing yards; he has 18 passing touchdowns and 16 rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals also rank in the top 10 in the FBS in total defense.
Louisville's six wins (over some good teams) have come by an average margin of 33.8 points, and, after a close scare against Duke, bounced back with a 41 point victory over a solid N.C. State team.
Virginia has struggled to sustain drives on offense all year, which was especially evident in their lost this past week against UNC. The Cavaliers' only quality win (and one of two overall), which came against Duke, happened because all four of Duke's fourth quarter drives ended in turnovers (including turnovers on downs). Plus, Virginia ranks 100th or worst in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.
On paper and on film, this looks to be a complete blowout. I'm putting on the Cardinal head this week!
Baylor -3 at Texas (Saturday at 3:30)
While I do feel a little bad picking on a team when it's down, I am going to do just that this week with Texas. Other than a decent opening win against Notre Dame (in which they still allowed 47 points), they have not beaten any good teams (yes, UTEP and Iowa State fans, the truth hurts sometime).
After coming into the season with high hopes, the Longhorns are now a disappointing 3-4; their head coach won't be returning next year (though that's not official yet). In their games against Cal and Oklahoma State. talented high-powered spread offenses like Baylor's, the Longhorns gave up 50 and 49 points and 507 and 555 total yards. Texas ranks 95th in the FBS in passing defense.
Baylor on the other hand is 6-0 and hoping for a Big 12 championship. Though their schedule so far has not been too tough (five of their six opponents currently have losing records), the Bears are 10th in the FBS in scoring offense. Baylor's quarterback, Seth Russel, has more touchdowns and fewer interceptions that Texas's quarterback Shane Buechele.
The Longhorns' season will continue to unravel as the Bears remain undefeated. I'm not sure if Bears roar or growl. Either way, Bevo (and Charlie Strong) better watch out!
SMU +3 at Tulane (Saturday at 4 P.M.)
This week's game with two teams from non-Power 5 conferences features a Conference USA matchup, and, therefore, I am feeling quite patriotic.
SMU should be riding high after their convincing upset of the Houston Cougars this past week. The Mustangs have looked strong recently, with quarterback Ben Hicks making good decisions and good throws and their running backs putting up good numbers.
Tulane got blown out this past week 50-27 by Tulsa, a spread offense much like SMU's. The Green Wave is coming off of two losses where they have not looked strong. They've yet to beat a good team, and it just doesn't look like they have it in them this season.
The signs point to a Mustang victory in New Orleans. Pony up!
Game I would most like to be at live: Nebraska at Wisconsin
I think Washington at Utah will be a more exciting game, with two high-powered offenses, but I don't think the environment in Salt Lake City will be close to what it will be in Madison. For me the environment and energy in a stadium is a large part of what makes a football game special.
Nebraska is undefeated and having its best season in a while. Wisconsin is equally strong, with its two losses coming versus Michigan and Ohio State.
Both teams' fans are passionate. Both teams have tough defenses. I expect some smashmouth football in a low scoring game, but I don't expect that to dampen the enthusiasm of the crowd at all.
I have five visiting teams this week. I need a strong week to give me a more presentable record. Here's hoping the football gods smile upon me,
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Week 8
The Professor is back! Last week was a step backwards when I had really hoped to be moving forward. I went 2-3 with my picks of Alabama and Colorado winning and my picks of Clemson, Kansas, and South Florida losing. South Florida was covering with a couple minutes left when UConn scored a garbage time touchdown to go from down 22 to down 15 (the spread was South Florida -20); the Bulls then took a few knees to run the game clock out. Gotta love those garbage time TDs that screw up the spread.
Oh well. Them's the breaks. Here are my Week 8 picks:
Once again all betting lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17824030/college-football-full-list-week-8-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
North Texas +18 vs. Army (Saturday at noon)
This week's matchup of two teams from non-Power 5 conferences sees me picking the Army Black Knights for the fourth time. They just pound the ball all game long. They are leading the FBS with 366.8 rush yards per game, and, if you take out the Duke game that was played in Hurricane Matthew, they are averaging 407.2 (the lowest rushing total in one of those games was 329 yards). Not surprisingly, they dominate time of possession.
Meanwhile, the Mean Green of North Texas are ranked 87th in the FBS in rushing defense, giving up 189 yards per game. They have given up at least 150 rushing yards in five of their six games, giving up over 250 yards in three of them.
This matchup of Army's rush offense against North Texas's rush defense will be the story of the game. This story will not be a happy one for the Mean Green. Army will rush for over 400 yards and will out-possess North Texas by about 15 minutes.
The Mean Green will not be mean enough. Give me the knight's helmet again!
Oklahoma State -24 at Kansas (Saturday at noon)
I had Kansas +35 this past week against Baylor figuring that the Jayhawks could score a couple times against a weak Baylor defense and keep the Baylor offense from completely scoring at will. Alas, neither of these happened. Kansas looked completely inept on both sides of the ball.
I will not make the same mistake twice. I think the Oklahoma State team is quite similar to Baylor. Both teams have spread offenses that score a bunch and defenses that will give up a couple scores.
Kansas was not able to string together more than a few first downs in their game against Baylor, and they had five turnovers, four of which were interceptions.
Having seen both teams in action this season, I'm comfortable giving this many points. Give me the Cowboys; I'm putting on the ten-gallon hat!
Arkansas +9.5 at Auburn (Saturday at 6 P.M.)
The Razorbacks have looked strong this year. They are 5-2, with those two losses coming against Texas A&M and Alabama, two of the best teams in the SEC (and probably the country). In those two games. Arkansas put up 24 and 30 points and 493 and 476 yards. Their defense was not able to make enough stops for those numbers to be enough, but the defense has looked strong in all of the other games. Plus, I really like the way quarterback Austin Allen plays.
Auburn's two losses came against Clemson and Texas A&M, two equally good teams. However, they have not put up the numbers that Arkansas has, and, frankly, just have not looked as impressive.
Both teams played Texas A&M and lost, but Arkansas scored eight more points, picked up 92 more yards of offense, and one more first down that Auburn did in that game.
When I threw all that together I came to once conclusion. I think it will be a close game, but this is too sweet of a spread to turn down. Woo Pig Sooie!
Oklahoma -14 at Texas Tech (Saturday at 6:30 P.M.)
Let's face it, Texas Tech has no defense. I know that statement is not literally true, but it's close. The Red Raiders rank 117th out of 128 FBS teams in total defense and 124th in scoring defense. It was a telling sign when they scored 55 points against Arizona State in Week 2 (a week in which I picked them), yet still lost the game by 14 points. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomas II is still struggling with a shoulder injury, and, going against a tough Big 12 defense in West Virginia this past week, the Red Raiders only put up 17 points.
After going 1-2 in their first three games, Oklahoma has won three straight games, all against conference opponents. Their quarterback, Baker Mayfield (a Texas Tech transfer), is completing an amazing 70.6% of his passes. Even with Samaje Perine out, the Sooners should still have strong running game; Joe Mixon has 476 rushing yards (one more than Perine). Their defense has not been amazing, but it should be able to make many more stops than the Texas Tech defense.
Sooners go over 50 points in their take-down of the Red Raiders. Boomer Sooner!
Washington State -7 at Arizona State (Saturday at 10 P.M.)
After starting 4-0, Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins hurt his ankle and left the USC game. The Sun Devils lost that game and this past week at Colorado (two of their last three games). Their defense, never their strong suit can no longer be compensated for by huge offensive numbers. Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage, who were instrumental in the 4-0 start, just have not looked good these past three games, and though Wilkins is expected to start (as he did in Colorado), his ankle is still nowhere close to 100%, a key in a spread offense like Arizona States.
Washington State, on the other hand, has come on strong in their past three games, all PAC-12 wins (against Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA). The Cougars have put up strong offensive numbers and have forced multiple turnovers in each of those games.
I don't foresee Arizona State being able to keep up. I'm taking the Cougars!
Game I would most like to see live: Texas A&M at Alabama
You knew I wouldn't stay away from the SEC for long. This game should be exciting. First of all, any game in Tuscaloosa is going to be electric (and loud). Both teams are undefeated; both are ranked in the top ten. They both have some of the best fans in all of college football. And now, they are in the same division. Whoever wins this game is extremely likely to win the SEC West.
Great teams, great fans, and a lot at stake should make this one of the best games of the year. My good friend and The Professor's Predictions #1 fan, Daniel Landa, will be at that game. I'm jealous.
Through seven weeks, I am yet to have a breakthrough week. Will Week 8 be the first?
Oh well. Them's the breaks. Here are my Week 8 picks:
Once again all betting lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17824030/college-football-full-list-week-8-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
North Texas +18 vs. Army (Saturday at noon)
This week's matchup of two teams from non-Power 5 conferences sees me picking the Army Black Knights for the fourth time. They just pound the ball all game long. They are leading the FBS with 366.8 rush yards per game, and, if you take out the Duke game that was played in Hurricane Matthew, they are averaging 407.2 (the lowest rushing total in one of those games was 329 yards). Not surprisingly, they dominate time of possession.
Meanwhile, the Mean Green of North Texas are ranked 87th in the FBS in rushing defense, giving up 189 yards per game. They have given up at least 150 rushing yards in five of their six games, giving up over 250 yards in three of them.
This matchup of Army's rush offense against North Texas's rush defense will be the story of the game. This story will not be a happy one for the Mean Green. Army will rush for over 400 yards and will out-possess North Texas by about 15 minutes.
The Mean Green will not be mean enough. Give me the knight's helmet again!
Oklahoma State -24 at Kansas (Saturday at noon)
I had Kansas +35 this past week against Baylor figuring that the Jayhawks could score a couple times against a weak Baylor defense and keep the Baylor offense from completely scoring at will. Alas, neither of these happened. Kansas looked completely inept on both sides of the ball.
I will not make the same mistake twice. I think the Oklahoma State team is quite similar to Baylor. Both teams have spread offenses that score a bunch and defenses that will give up a couple scores.
Kansas was not able to string together more than a few first downs in their game against Baylor, and they had five turnovers, four of which were interceptions.
Having seen both teams in action this season, I'm comfortable giving this many points. Give me the Cowboys; I'm putting on the ten-gallon hat!
Arkansas +9.5 at Auburn (Saturday at 6 P.M.)
The Razorbacks have looked strong this year. They are 5-2, with those two losses coming against Texas A&M and Alabama, two of the best teams in the SEC (and probably the country). In those two games. Arkansas put up 24 and 30 points and 493 and 476 yards. Their defense was not able to make enough stops for those numbers to be enough, but the defense has looked strong in all of the other games. Plus, I really like the way quarterback Austin Allen plays.
Auburn's two losses came against Clemson and Texas A&M, two equally good teams. However, they have not put up the numbers that Arkansas has, and, frankly, just have not looked as impressive.
Both teams played Texas A&M and lost, but Arkansas scored eight more points, picked up 92 more yards of offense, and one more first down that Auburn did in that game.
When I threw all that together I came to once conclusion. I think it will be a close game, but this is too sweet of a spread to turn down. Woo Pig Sooie!
Oklahoma -14 at Texas Tech (Saturday at 6:30 P.M.)
Let's face it, Texas Tech has no defense. I know that statement is not literally true, but it's close. The Red Raiders rank 117th out of 128 FBS teams in total defense and 124th in scoring defense. It was a telling sign when they scored 55 points against Arizona State in Week 2 (a week in which I picked them), yet still lost the game by 14 points. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomas II is still struggling with a shoulder injury, and, going against a tough Big 12 defense in West Virginia this past week, the Red Raiders only put up 17 points.
After going 1-2 in their first three games, Oklahoma has won three straight games, all against conference opponents. Their quarterback, Baker Mayfield (a Texas Tech transfer), is completing an amazing 70.6% of his passes. Even with Samaje Perine out, the Sooners should still have strong running game; Joe Mixon has 476 rushing yards (one more than Perine). Their defense has not been amazing, but it should be able to make many more stops than the Texas Tech defense.
Sooners go over 50 points in their take-down of the Red Raiders. Boomer Sooner!
Washington State -7 at Arizona State (Saturday at 10 P.M.)
After starting 4-0, Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins hurt his ankle and left the USC game. The Sun Devils lost that game and this past week at Colorado (two of their last three games). Their defense, never their strong suit can no longer be compensated for by huge offensive numbers. Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage, who were instrumental in the 4-0 start, just have not looked good these past three games, and though Wilkins is expected to start (as he did in Colorado), his ankle is still nowhere close to 100%, a key in a spread offense like Arizona States.
Washington State, on the other hand, has come on strong in their past three games, all PAC-12 wins (against Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA). The Cougars have put up strong offensive numbers and have forced multiple turnovers in each of those games.
I don't foresee Arizona State being able to keep up. I'm taking the Cougars!
Game I would most like to see live: Texas A&M at Alabama
You knew I wouldn't stay away from the SEC for long. This game should be exciting. First of all, any game in Tuscaloosa is going to be electric (and loud). Both teams are undefeated; both are ranked in the top ten. They both have some of the best fans in all of college football. And now, they are in the same division. Whoever wins this game is extremely likely to win the SEC West.
Great teams, great fans, and a lot at stake should make this one of the best games of the year. My good friend and The Professor's Predictions #1 fan, Daniel Landa, will be at that game. I'm jealous.
Through seven weeks, I am yet to have a breakthrough week. Will Week 8 be the first?
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Week 7
The Professor is back! I'm back on my winning ways with a 3-2 Week 6. My picks of Michigan, Washington, and Georgia won, while my picks of Western Kentucky and Army lost. I got some help in the Georgia game when, the Bulldogs' Terry Goodwin grabbed the South Carolina onside kick in the closing minute and returned it for a touchdown, thus unlikely covering the spread (which resulted in a disappointed Brent Musberger).
That winning week put my overall record this season at 15-14-1. It's nice to be back above 0.500, but I'd like to have some more cushion between me and that mark.
So, let's increase that cushion. Here are my Week 7 picks:
Once again, all betting lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17770335/college-football-full-list-week-7-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
N.C. State +17 at Clemson (Saturday at noon)
Clemson proved that they are one of the top teams in the country and the team to beat in the ACC with their win over Louisville, and, a week after beating one of the top offensive teams in the country, the Tigers put up 56 points on Boston College, one of the top defensive teams in the country.
In addition to Deshaun Watson, an elite dual threat quarterback, running back Wayne Gallman has added another potent weapon to the Clemson offense. Plus, the game is in Death Valley, a place that is as ominous for opponents as it sounds,where the Clemson Tigers are 19-0 over the past three seasons.
While the Clemson offense gets a lot of publicity, their defense was key in their win over Louisville. They rank in the top ten in the FBS in third down defense and scoring defense.
N.C. State has a good offense with quarterback Ryan Finley and running back Matthew Dayes, but the strong Clemson defense should be able to stop them on most of their drives. N.C. State has put up good stats so far, but have not faced any really tough opponents (yes, I consider Notre Dame a mediocre team this year).
I think Clemson continues their regular season winning streak in decisive fashion.
I'm taking the Tigers over the Wolfpack in the battle of the beasts!
Kansas +35 at Baylor (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
While Baylor is sitting at 5-0, they have not put up the insanely high scores that they had been doing for the past couple years. They are averaging 42.6 points per game with an average margin of victory of 23.6 points per game. Their opponents have a combined record of 8-20, and only one of those teams has a winning record.
Kansas, while sitting at 1-4, has faced opponents with a combined record of 16-11, and four of those teams have winning records. The Jayhawks are averaging 15.2 points per game.
While I don't think the game will be close, with the numbers being what they are and the spread being this large, I have to go with Kansas.
Rock, chalk, Jayhawk!
Alabama -13 at Tennessee (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
There is no team in the country like Alabama. They demonstrate week in and week out why they are the top team in the nation.
Alabama dominates on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their offensive and defensive lines both control the line of scrimmage. Alabama is among the leaders in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The tide have given up fewer than 16 points per game while scoring almost 45 points per game.
If that were not enough, the Crimson Tide have scored an FBS-leading nine non-offensive touchdowns this season (seven on defense and two on punt returns).
Tennessee has fallen behind in every game this quarter, and, despite a miraculous strip of the ball to save what would have been a game-sealing touchdown against Texas A&M this past game to force overtime, the comeback magic ran out as they lost their first game of the season.
The Volunteers have turned the ball over in all six of their games, including seven turnovers against Texas A&M. Alabama is much to strong of a team to either fall behind or turn the ball over to.
Alabama has a margin of victory of over 23 points in their three games against ranked opponents this year. I think their success in big games will continue, as will their FBS-leading 18 game winning streak.
Roll, Tide, Roll!
Connecticut +19 at South Florida (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
This week's matchup between to non-Power 5 Conference teams (which I have not been doing well in so far) features two teams from the American Athletic Conference.
The Bulls of South Florida have been quietly putting up an impressive season. They are 5-1, with their one loss coming against Florida State. With their leading passer, rusher, and receiver from last season returning, the Bulls have the 8th highest scoring offense in the FBS, with 44.5 points per game.
The Bulls have over 200 yards both passing and rushing in their two American Athletic Conference games. They have a +4 turnover margin in those games. The South Florida defense has given up just over 23 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers.
Connecticut is 3-3 but doesn't have any impressive wins. Their quarterback has five touchdowns and four interceptions. Their three wins (including the opener against Maine have come by an average 5.7 points.
In their three losses, UCONN has given up an average of 34 points and 443 yards. Those losses came against strong offensive teams. Facing another strong offensive team in South Florida, I don't think the Huskies will be able to keep this one close.
I'm running with the Bulls!
Arizona State +13.5 at Colorado (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
Arizona State is a spread football team whose strategy to win has been to put up enormous offensive numbers and give up slightly less enormous numbers on defense. They are 5-1, so that strategy has been working pretty well so far.
The Sun Devils' starting quarterback suffered a knee injury in this past week's game against USC. The backup came in and suffered a season-ending foot injury. They also lost a quarterback to a knee injury during fall camp. Manny Wilkins the starting quarterback is questionable for this game. He has not been taking first team reps in practice, and, even if he does play, he won't be close to 100%.
So it looks like they will be starting a fourth-string true freshman who threw one pass in the USC game, which was intercepted. For an offense that relies on chucking the ball all over the field for success, this is a pretty devastating blow.
Colorado is a solid team which is averaging over 42 points a game while only giving up an average of around 17 points per game. They have five rushers with over 100 yards for the season, and their running game should wear down the Sun Devil Defense.
So, while I feel for the pressure that has been put on the young quarterback, Dillon Sterling-Cole, I have to take this opportunity to go with the Buffaloes.
I'm running with Ralph!
Game I would most like to see live: Ohio State at Wisconsin
I'm still staying out of the SEC. The Big 10 (I can't make my "IG" look like a 10) is looking like the top conference this year.
Both teams play physical football. The Buckeyes are looking to continue their undefeated season, and the Badgers are looking to rebound from their loss to Michigan last week.
A Big 10 Conference game in Camp Randall Stadium, with two of the top teams in the country, should be quite the environment on Saturday.
There you have it: Tigers, Jayhawks, Crimson Tide, Bulls, and Buffaloes. Is it Saturday yet?
That winning week put my overall record this season at 15-14-1. It's nice to be back above 0.500, but I'd like to have some more cushion between me and that mark.
So, let's increase that cushion. Here are my Week 7 picks:
Once again, all betting lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17770335/college-football-full-list-week-7-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
N.C. State +17 at Clemson (Saturday at noon)
Clemson proved that they are one of the top teams in the country and the team to beat in the ACC with their win over Louisville, and, a week after beating one of the top offensive teams in the country, the Tigers put up 56 points on Boston College, one of the top defensive teams in the country.
In addition to Deshaun Watson, an elite dual threat quarterback, running back Wayne Gallman has added another potent weapon to the Clemson offense. Plus, the game is in Death Valley, a place that is as ominous for opponents as it sounds,where the Clemson Tigers are 19-0 over the past three seasons.
While the Clemson offense gets a lot of publicity, their defense was key in their win over Louisville. They rank in the top ten in the FBS in third down defense and scoring defense.
N.C. State has a good offense with quarterback Ryan Finley and running back Matthew Dayes, but the strong Clemson defense should be able to stop them on most of their drives. N.C. State has put up good stats so far, but have not faced any really tough opponents (yes, I consider Notre Dame a mediocre team this year).
I think Clemson continues their regular season winning streak in decisive fashion.
I'm taking the Tigers over the Wolfpack in the battle of the beasts!
Kansas +35 at Baylor (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
While Baylor is sitting at 5-0, they have not put up the insanely high scores that they had been doing for the past couple years. They are averaging 42.6 points per game with an average margin of victory of 23.6 points per game. Their opponents have a combined record of 8-20, and only one of those teams has a winning record.
Kansas, while sitting at 1-4, has faced opponents with a combined record of 16-11, and four of those teams have winning records. The Jayhawks are averaging 15.2 points per game.
While I don't think the game will be close, with the numbers being what they are and the spread being this large, I have to go with Kansas.
Rock, chalk, Jayhawk!
Alabama -13 at Tennessee (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
There is no team in the country like Alabama. They demonstrate week in and week out why they are the top team in the nation.
Alabama dominates on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their offensive and defensive lines both control the line of scrimmage. Alabama is among the leaders in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The tide have given up fewer than 16 points per game while scoring almost 45 points per game.
If that were not enough, the Crimson Tide have scored an FBS-leading nine non-offensive touchdowns this season (seven on defense and two on punt returns).
Tennessee has fallen behind in every game this quarter, and, despite a miraculous strip of the ball to save what would have been a game-sealing touchdown against Texas A&M this past game to force overtime, the comeback magic ran out as they lost their first game of the season.
The Volunteers have turned the ball over in all six of their games, including seven turnovers against Texas A&M. Alabama is much to strong of a team to either fall behind or turn the ball over to.
Alabama has a margin of victory of over 23 points in their three games against ranked opponents this year. I think their success in big games will continue, as will their FBS-leading 18 game winning streak.
Roll, Tide, Roll!
Connecticut +19 at South Florida (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
This week's matchup between to non-Power 5 Conference teams (which I have not been doing well in so far) features two teams from the American Athletic Conference.
The Bulls of South Florida have been quietly putting up an impressive season. They are 5-1, with their one loss coming against Florida State. With their leading passer, rusher, and receiver from last season returning, the Bulls have the 8th highest scoring offense in the FBS, with 44.5 points per game.
The Bulls have over 200 yards both passing and rushing in their two American Athletic Conference games. They have a +4 turnover margin in those games. The South Florida defense has given up just over 23 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers.
Connecticut is 3-3 but doesn't have any impressive wins. Their quarterback has five touchdowns and four interceptions. Their three wins (including the opener against Maine have come by an average 5.7 points.
In their three losses, UCONN has given up an average of 34 points and 443 yards. Those losses came against strong offensive teams. Facing another strong offensive team in South Florida, I don't think the Huskies will be able to keep this one close.
I'm running with the Bulls!
Arizona State +13.5 at Colorado (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
Arizona State is a spread football team whose strategy to win has been to put up enormous offensive numbers and give up slightly less enormous numbers on defense. They are 5-1, so that strategy has been working pretty well so far.
The Sun Devils' starting quarterback suffered a knee injury in this past week's game against USC. The backup came in and suffered a season-ending foot injury. They also lost a quarterback to a knee injury during fall camp. Manny Wilkins the starting quarterback is questionable for this game. He has not been taking first team reps in practice, and, even if he does play, he won't be close to 100%.
So it looks like they will be starting a fourth-string true freshman who threw one pass in the USC game, which was intercepted. For an offense that relies on chucking the ball all over the field for success, this is a pretty devastating blow.
Colorado is a solid team which is averaging over 42 points a game while only giving up an average of around 17 points per game. They have five rushers with over 100 yards for the season, and their running game should wear down the Sun Devil Defense.
So, while I feel for the pressure that has been put on the young quarterback, Dillon Sterling-Cole, I have to take this opportunity to go with the Buffaloes.
I'm running with Ralph!
Game I would most like to see live: Ohio State at Wisconsin
I'm still staying out of the SEC. The Big 10 (I can't make my "IG" look like a 10) is looking like the top conference this year.
Both teams play physical football. The Buckeyes are looking to continue their undefeated season, and the Badgers are looking to rebound from their loss to Michigan last week.
A Big 10 Conference game in Camp Randall Stadium, with two of the top teams in the country, should be quite the environment on Saturday.
There you have it: Tigers, Jayhawks, Crimson Tide, Bulls, and Buffaloes. Is it Saturday yet?
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Week 6
The Professor is back! After two winning weeks, Week 5 was a step backwards. I went 2-3, with my picks of Ohio State and South Florida winning but my picks of Duke, Akron, and Arizona State losing. Every week cannot be a winning week; I just need more of those than losing weeks.
I am now 12-12-1. Not terrible, but not the record I had hoped for after five weeks. I am seeing just how unpredictable college football can be.
So, to get back on my winning ways, here are my Week 6 picks:
Once again, the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17711200/college-football-full-list-week-6-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Western Kentucky -3 at Louisiana Tech (Thursday at 8 P.M.)
This week's matchup of two non-Power 5 Conference teams features a Conference USA matchup between the Hilltoppers and Bulldogs, and it takes place on a Thursday night.
The Hilltoppers high-powered spread offense has put up big scores in their three wins, and, in their week two loss at Alabama, they put up over 200 passing yards. In their one point loss against Vanderbilt, they put up over 200 passing yards and over 200 passing yards.
In their loss to Texas Tech, another high-powered spread offense, in Week 3, the Bulldogs defense gave up 470 passing yards and 196 rushing yards. In their Week 4 loss to Middle Tennessee State, the Bulldog defense gave up 356 yards in the air and 197 yards on the ground.
Louisiana Tech's spread offense put up big yards and points in both of those games, but it wasn't enough to keep pace with their opponent's firepower.
This will be a high scoring game. Bet the over. Past history leads me to believe that Louisiana Tech will come up on the short end of that shootout. Go Tops!
Army +4 at Duke (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
For the third time in six weeks, I'm going with the men from West Point.
Behind an extremely talented offensive line, the triple option running game of Army has run all over every opponent they have played. Even in their overtime loss to Buffalo, this past week, they continued their trend of picking up at least 300 rushing yards per game every game, while going above 400 in half of their games.
The Black Knights have dominated possession and have no turnovers in three of their four games.
Duke is coming off of a bad loss against Virginia, in which they turned the ball over four times in the fourth quarter. In fact, they have struggled with turnovers all year, losing 17 turnovers in the first five games of this season, including five lost fumbles in Week 1 agains North Carolina Central.
The Blue Devil defense gave up over 200 yards rushing against Wake Forest and Notre Dame and over 100 against Northwestern. The Duke defense features two sophomores on the defensive line and a freshman and a sophomore at linebacker. The consistent pounding of the Army running game should wear down these defenders throughout the game.
Duke lost a big part of its game when redshirt senior quarterback Thomas Sirk tore his Achilles Tendon during offseason workouts. Redshirt freshman, Daniel Jones, who took Sirk's place, has struggled, throwing six touchdowns and eight interceptions so far.
So I'm putting on the knight's helmet once again this week!
Michigan -26.5 at Rutgers (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
Michigan definitively proved that they are a top team with their hard-fought victory over eighth-ranked Wisconsin this past weekend.
Rutgers performance this past weekend is a big reason why I am picking Michigan this week. The Scarlet Knights showed that their hopelessness against top talent with a 58-0 loss to Ohio State. They put up only 116 yards of total offense while giving up 669 yards of total offense to Ohio State, and they were out-possessed by over 17 minutes
Fans of the two teams might not like to hear it, but I see a lot of similarities between Michigan and Ohio State this season. Both teams are among the best in the nation, both are led by an accurate and powerful quarterback, both teams have a bruising running back, and both teams have stifling defenses. Plus, Michigan's defense happens to have Jabril Peppers, one of the most physically talented players in the country and a definite game changer.
I don't see Rutgers faring any better this week than last week, so it's the Maize and Blue for me!
Washington -8 at Oregon (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
The Washington Huskies should be extremely confident after their 44-6 shellacking of my beloved Stanford Cardinal this past Friday. They proved they are for real, and Jake Browning cemented his position as an elite quarterback.
The Huskies are 5-0, and Browning has 17 touchdowns to two interceptions. Other than a seven point victory at Arizona, Washington has won their other four games by a margin of at least 30 points.
Oregon, on the other hand, has no momentum. The Ducks, who were ranked in the preseason poll, are on a three game losing streak.
Without their traditional high-flying passing attack, the Ducks have had to largely depend on several running backs, highlighted by the talented Royce Freeman. The Huskies showed their dominance against the running game, by shutting down Stanford's ground game, led by Heisman Trophy candidate (and acquaintance of mine) Christian McCaffrey. With a mediocre pass game and their running game stifled, I don't see how Oregon can beat a strong Wisconsin team.
The Huskies have so far shown that this is their year, while the Ducks have shown just the opposite. The Huskies are going Duck hunting down in Eugene!
Georgia -7.5 at South Carolina (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
Georgia cleared running back Nick Chubb to play in the game against South Carolina, and, with that information, Georgia becomes an attractive pick this weekend.
Game I would most like to see live: Florida State at Miami
Tennessee at Texas A&M and Alabama at Arkansas definitely should be incredible environments featuring arguably the top four teams in the SEC and fans who live and breathe college football, but I am not going to be carried away by SEC bias this weekend.
Miami is 4-0 and ranked tenth in the country. Hurricane fever has reached a fevered pitch far above the normal mania. Florida State is coming off a last second loss to North Carolina. They are looking to turn their season around, and they definitely have the talent to do so.
I have witnessed how much of a football town Miami is and how much Miamians love their Hurricanes. An Uber driver, who was a University of Miami alum, recently told me that he didn't care about any of the other games, all that mattered to him was beating Florida State. This rivalry is intense.
The newly renovated Hard Rock Stadium is an amazing place to watch a football game.
Here's the kicker: I will actually be at Hard Rock Stadium for the game on Saturday! In my last weekend of my internship at the Miami Herald, my editor, Jorge Rojas, is letting me help cover the game.
There you have it. Five road teams from five different conferences (technically four and one independent). Let the games begin!
I am now 12-12-1. Not terrible, but not the record I had hoped for after five weeks. I am seeing just how unpredictable college football can be.
So, to get back on my winning ways, here are my Week 6 picks:
Once again, the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17711200/college-football-full-list-week-6-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Western Kentucky -3 at Louisiana Tech (Thursday at 8 P.M.)
This week's matchup of two non-Power 5 Conference teams features a Conference USA matchup between the Hilltoppers and Bulldogs, and it takes place on a Thursday night.
The Hilltoppers high-powered spread offense has put up big scores in their three wins, and, in their week two loss at Alabama, they put up over 200 passing yards. In their one point loss against Vanderbilt, they put up over 200 passing yards and over 200 passing yards.
In their loss to Texas Tech, another high-powered spread offense, in Week 3, the Bulldogs defense gave up 470 passing yards and 196 rushing yards. In their Week 4 loss to Middle Tennessee State, the Bulldog defense gave up 356 yards in the air and 197 yards on the ground.
Louisiana Tech's spread offense put up big yards and points in both of those games, but it wasn't enough to keep pace with their opponent's firepower.
This will be a high scoring game. Bet the over. Past history leads me to believe that Louisiana Tech will come up on the short end of that shootout. Go Tops!
Army +4 at Duke (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
For the third time in six weeks, I'm going with the men from West Point.
Behind an extremely talented offensive line, the triple option running game of Army has run all over every opponent they have played. Even in their overtime loss to Buffalo, this past week, they continued their trend of picking up at least 300 rushing yards per game every game, while going above 400 in half of their games.
The Black Knights have dominated possession and have no turnovers in three of their four games.
Duke is coming off of a bad loss against Virginia, in which they turned the ball over four times in the fourth quarter. In fact, they have struggled with turnovers all year, losing 17 turnovers in the first five games of this season, including five lost fumbles in Week 1 agains North Carolina Central.
The Blue Devil defense gave up over 200 yards rushing against Wake Forest and Notre Dame and over 100 against Northwestern. The Duke defense features two sophomores on the defensive line and a freshman and a sophomore at linebacker. The consistent pounding of the Army running game should wear down these defenders throughout the game.
Duke lost a big part of its game when redshirt senior quarterback Thomas Sirk tore his Achilles Tendon during offseason workouts. Redshirt freshman, Daniel Jones, who took Sirk's place, has struggled, throwing six touchdowns and eight interceptions so far.
So I'm putting on the knight's helmet once again this week!
Michigan -26.5 at Rutgers (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
Michigan definitively proved that they are a top team with their hard-fought victory over eighth-ranked Wisconsin this past weekend.
Rutgers performance this past weekend is a big reason why I am picking Michigan this week. The Scarlet Knights showed that their hopelessness against top talent with a 58-0 loss to Ohio State. They put up only 116 yards of total offense while giving up 669 yards of total offense to Ohio State, and they were out-possessed by over 17 minutes
Fans of the two teams might not like to hear it, but I see a lot of similarities between Michigan and Ohio State this season. Both teams are among the best in the nation, both are led by an accurate and powerful quarterback, both teams have a bruising running back, and both teams have stifling defenses. Plus, Michigan's defense happens to have Jabril Peppers, one of the most physically talented players in the country and a definite game changer.
I don't see Rutgers faring any better this week than last week, so it's the Maize and Blue for me!
Washington -8 at Oregon (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
The Washington Huskies should be extremely confident after their 44-6 shellacking of my beloved Stanford Cardinal this past Friday. They proved they are for real, and Jake Browning cemented his position as an elite quarterback.
The Huskies are 5-0, and Browning has 17 touchdowns to two interceptions. Other than a seven point victory at Arizona, Washington has won their other four games by a margin of at least 30 points.
Oregon, on the other hand, has no momentum. The Ducks, who were ranked in the preseason poll, are on a three game losing streak.
Without their traditional high-flying passing attack, the Ducks have had to largely depend on several running backs, highlighted by the talented Royce Freeman. The Huskies showed their dominance against the running game, by shutting down Stanford's ground game, led by Heisman Trophy candidate (and acquaintance of mine) Christian McCaffrey. With a mediocre pass game and their running game stifled, I don't see how Oregon can beat a strong Wisconsin team.
The Huskies have so far shown that this is their year, while the Ducks have shown just the opposite. The Huskies are going Duck hunting down in Eugene!
Georgia -7.5 at South Carolina (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
Georgia cleared running back Nick Chubb to play in the game against South Carolina, and, with that information, Georgia becomes an attractive pick this weekend.
Whether you consider their last minute Hail Mary loss to Tennessee bad luck or poor defense, I am pretty sure the Bulldogs are angry, motivated, and hungry for a win.
I think Georgia one of the most talented teams in the SEC, even though their record might not show it. While I don't think Chubb is 100% healthy, he can still put up big numbers. His 22 rushing yards and two touchdowns against North Carolina showed what he is capable of doing. I also think their quarterback, Jacob Eason is extremely talented, even though he after five games, he has fewer than 1,000 passing yards, a 53.6 completion percentage, and 7 touchdowns to 4 interceptions; he just hasn't broken through yet.
Whatever the reason is, they have not performed to their potential so far this season, but I believe that a team with that much talent is bound to break out.
South Carolina, on the other hand has looked much worse in their three SEC losses this season (they did beat a weak Vanderbilt team in Week 1). In those three games, frankly, their only strong opponent was Texas A&M, and the Gamecocks looked anemic on offense, going 12/45 (26.7%) on third downs. Their quarterback has 567 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception through five games. He hasn't even taken all the snaps. It's quite hard to win a game with out at least a mediocre quarterback.
I see a sizable imbalance of talent between these two teams, and this imbalance is why I'm taking the Bulldogs of UGA!
(Plus, how can you not go for somebody named Chubb, so much fun to say)
Game I would most like to see live: Florida State at Miami
Tennessee at Texas A&M and Alabama at Arkansas definitely should be incredible environments featuring arguably the top four teams in the SEC and fans who live and breathe college football, but I am not going to be carried away by SEC bias this weekend.
Miami is 4-0 and ranked tenth in the country. Hurricane fever has reached a fevered pitch far above the normal mania. Florida State is coming off a last second loss to North Carolina. They are looking to turn their season around, and they definitely have the talent to do so.
I have witnessed how much of a football town Miami is and how much Miamians love their Hurricanes. An Uber driver, who was a University of Miami alum, recently told me that he didn't care about any of the other games, all that mattered to him was beating Florida State. This rivalry is intense.
The newly renovated Hard Rock Stadium is an amazing place to watch a football game.
Here's the kicker: I will actually be at Hard Rock Stadium for the game on Saturday! In my last weekend of my internship at the Miami Herald, my editor, Jorge Rojas, is letting me help cover the game.
There you have it. Five road teams from five different conferences (technically four and one independent). Let the games begin!
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