Week 9

The Professor is back! Yikes! Last week was rough, my worst week ever. I went 0-4 with one push. My picks of Army, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Washington State lost, while my pick of Oklahoma State pushed.

I was correct in stating that Texas Tech had no defense and that Oklahoma would put up over 50 points against them (they put up 66), but I did not realize that Oklahoma's defense would not show up that night either (they gave up a season high 59 points), and thus, did not cover the 14 point spread.

So I am now 17-21-2 on the season. I am disappointed by my record, but I am not giving up hope. There's still time for me to achieve a record that I can be proud of.

I like to think that my luck will rebound like a boomerang, and I will be able to have my best week over coming off of my worst week ever, so here are my Week 9 picks:

As per usual, all point spreads come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17879573/college-football-full-list-week-9-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.

Michigan -21.5 at Michigan State (Saturday at noon)

I was sitting in the Axe and Palm at Old Union on the Stanford campus watching their meeting last year, and was watching live when Michigan State pulled out the incredibly unlikely victory when the Michigan punter struggled catching the snap and the Michigan State blocked the punt and returned it for a game winning touchdown.

Michigan is vastly improved this season and definitely looks like a playoff team. The Wolverines are undefeated and their only close game was their 14-7 victory over a tough Wisconsin team. They have dominated in their other six wins, winning by an average margin of 42.7 points. Michigan ranks third in the FBS in scoring offense.

Yet, an equally significant, if not more significant, reason for Michigan's success so far has been their suffocating defense. They lead the FBS in both total offense and scoring offense. Jabril Peppers might be the most talented player in the country, dominating on offense, defense, and special teams.

After an impressive 2015 season (who can forget Michael Geiger celebrating kicking the game-winning field goal against Ohio State by running down the field and swinging his arm wildly like a windmill, so GIF-worthy) , the Spartans are 2-5 this season and are currently on a five game losing streak. They have yet to look impressive in a single game this season. Against Wisconsin, a comparable team to Michigan on defense (I believe that Michigan is stronger than Wisconsin on offense), the Spartans put up six points, 75 rushing yards, and had four turnovers. Plus, Michigan State ranks 80th in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.

This game should not be close. The Wolverines will dominate every facet of the game en route to an easy victory. I won with the maize and blue earlier this season, and I fully expect to again. Howl!

Duke +6.5 at Georgia Tech (Saturday at noon)

Duke certainly looked impressive against Louisville. If it had not been for a drive-extending roughing the kicker penalty, who knows what would have happened.

A couple weeks ago, Duke faced a triple option team in Army, the second best rushing team in the FBS and held them without a touchdown and almost 200 yards below their season average for rushing yards in a game. They only gave up two third down conversions on 13 attempts and held Army on all four of their fourth down attempts. Redshirt freshman quarterback Danny Jones is starting to hit his groove and look comfortable, the defense has been forcing turnovers, and the offense appears to have gotten its turnover problems under control.

Georgia Tech has lost its last three ACC games. Their dominant triple option attack has not been what it was the past several years. None of their running backs look overly impressive, and their quarterback can't be counted on for much.

The time and circumstances are ripe for a Blue Devils (minor) upset over the Yellow Jackets. I'll take the Devil mask, please!

Louisville -29.5 at Virginia (Saturday at noon)

Louisville ranks first in the FBS in scoring offense and second in total offense. The Cardinals have one of the most talented players in the country in Lamar Jackson, who is the team leader in both passing yards and rushing yards; he has 18 passing touchdowns and 16 rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals also rank in the top 10 in the FBS in total defense.

Louisville's six wins (over some good teams) have come by an average margin of 33.8 points, and, after a close scare against Duke, bounced back with a 41 point victory over a solid N.C. State team.

Virginia has struggled to sustain drives on offense all year, which was especially evident in their lost this past week against UNC. The Cavaliers' only quality win (and one of two overall), which came against Duke, happened because all four of Duke's fourth quarter drives ended in turnovers (including turnovers on downs). Plus, Virginia ranks 100th or worst in the FBS in both total defense and scoring defense.

On paper and on film, this looks to be a complete blowout. I'm putting on the Cardinal head this week!

Baylor -3 at Texas (Saturday at 3:30)

While I do feel a little bad picking on a team when it's down, I am going to do just that this week with Texas. Other than a decent opening win against Notre Dame (in which they still allowed 47 points), they have not beaten any good teams (yes, UTEP and Iowa State fans, the truth hurts sometime).

After coming into the season with high hopes, the Longhorns are now a disappointing 3-4; their head coach won't be returning next year (though that's not official yet). In their games against Cal and Oklahoma State. talented high-powered spread offenses like Baylor's, the Longhorns gave up 50 and 49 points and 507 and 555 total yards. Texas ranks 95th in the FBS in passing defense.

Baylor on the other hand is 6-0 and hoping for a Big 12 championship. Though their schedule so far has not been too tough (five of their six opponents currently have losing records), the Bears are 10th in the FBS in scoring offense. Baylor's quarterback, Seth Russel, has more touchdowns and fewer interceptions that Texas's quarterback Shane Buechele.

The Longhorns' season will continue to unravel as the Bears remain undefeated. I'm not sure if Bears roar or growl. Either way, Bevo (and Charlie Strong) better watch out!

SMU +3 at Tulane (Saturday at 4 P.M.)

This week's game with two teams from non-Power 5 conferences features a Conference USA matchup, and, therefore, I am feeling quite patriotic.

SMU should be riding high after their convincing upset of the Houston Cougars this past week. The Mustangs have looked strong recently, with quarterback Ben Hicks making good decisions and good throws and their running backs putting up good numbers.

Tulane got blown out this past week 50-27 by Tulsa, a spread offense much like SMU's. The Green Wave is coming off of two losses where they have not looked strong. They've yet to beat a good team, and it just doesn't look like they have it in them this season.

The signs point to a Mustang victory in New Orleans. Pony up!

Game I would most like to be at live: Nebraska at Wisconsin

I think Washington at Utah will be a more exciting game, with two high-powered offenses, but I don't think the environment in Salt Lake City will be close to what it will be in Madison. For me the environment and energy in a stadium is a large part of what makes a football game special.

Nebraska is undefeated and having its best season in a while. Wisconsin is equally strong, with its two losses coming versus Michigan and Ohio State.

Both teams' fans are passionate. Both teams have tough defenses. I expect some smashmouth football in a low scoring game, but I don't expect that to dampen the enthusiasm of the crowd at all.


I have five visiting teams this week. I need a strong week to give me a more presentable record. Here's hoping the football gods smile upon me,