Week 10

The Professor is back! Week 9 was another step backwards. I went 2-3 with my picks of SMU and Duke winning, and my picks of Louisville, Michigan, and Baylor losing.

I am now 19-24-2 on the season and in desperate need of a good week, so here are my Week 10 picks:

The lines that I found from Westgate Las Vegas posted on ESPN.com are presented a little bit differently this week: http://m.espn.com/ncf/dailyline?date=20161105&casinoId=25&wjb

All times are still Eastern Time Zone

Texas A&M -13.at Mississippi State (Saturday at noon)

The more I think about it, the more I think that the College Football Playoff Committee got their first rankings correct (though rankings at this point of the season do not have tremendous importance). The Aggies have played a tough schedule and have several impressive wins.

I like that the CFP Committee did not overemphasize the Aggies' one-loss, which came at the hands of by far the best team in the country. They currently look like one of the four best teams in the country.

Aggies quarterback Trevor Knight has gotten a little bit stronger throughout the season, and between Knight and running back Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M has a solid running game. However, where the Aggies really distinguish themselves is on defense.

In the Aggies four games against unranked teams (which Mississippi State is), they have allowed fewer than ten points per game. Plus, through eight games, the Aggie defense has ten fumble recoveries and nine interceptions, and are tied for fourth in the FBS in turnovers forced.

The Bulldogs rank 47th in the FBS in total offense and 76th in defense. The Bulldogs lost in the opening week against South Alabama and yet to look impressive for more than a couple drives all year.

A mediocre team should be easy pickings for one of the best teams in the country. Gig 'em!

Florida -3 at Arkansas (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)

Arkansas is 1-3 against ranked teams this season. They could not get anything going in their 56-3 loss against Auburn in their most recent game. The Razorbacks' quarterback, Austin Allen, is expected to play but does appear to be still dealing with issues from a knee injury which he sustained in the Auburn loss.

The Razorbacks' defense has given up an average of over 530 yards in their four SEC games this season, all against talented ranked teams.

Florida has not faced the caliber of talent that Arkansas has, but they have face some good SEC teams, but they've looked impressive in the games that they have played. The Gators have quarterback Luke Del Rio completely healthy. They have two strong runners in Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine. The Gator defense has given up thirty combined points in their last three SEC games (all wins, against Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Georgia).

I saw how happy the Gators were when the polls came out and they saw that they were ranked in the top ten. They are going to fight hard to stay in the top ten.

Chomp! Chomp!

Syracuse + 28 at Clemson (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)

Clemson is 8-0, but only three of those wins have come by double digits. Clemson beat Troy in Week 2 by only six points. In the Tigers' undefeated 2015 regular season, six of their first eight wins were by double digits.

Clemson ranks 30th in the FBS in total offense; Syracuse ranks 25th.

Syracuse has the fifth best passing offense in the FBS, and Clemson has struggled at times defending the pass.

Short and sweet, Syracuse has what it takes to cover the spread in Death Valley.

It may not rhyme with anything, but I'm taking the Orange this week!

Alabama -7 at LSU (Saturday at 8 P.M.)

The one thing about which there should be absolutely no suspense is that Alabama will be #1 in every poll/ranking to come out this week.

Jalen Hurts has taken control of the Crimson Tide offense, and, while he has not put up unbelievable numbers, he has managed the offense well. Watching Alabama play, what sticks out the most is how much they dominate the line of scrimmage (both on offense and defense). This allows the Crimson Tide to put up big numbers in the running game and also limit the effectiveness of their opponent's offense.

As if that weren't enough, the Crimson Tide also scores on defense and special teams. They have an FBS-leading 12 non-offensive touchdowns in 2016.

LSU's biggest strength is their running back Leonard Fournette, who came up big in their most recent game, a win over Ole Miss. Fournette had 284 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in that game, but guess what? Alabama has the top ranked run defense in the FBS giving up just 70.1 yards per game. Through Alabama's eight wins, the top individual rushing performances against them have been 52 and 62 yards.

The Tide remain undefeated as their winning streak continues. I've got the Tide rolling on Saturday!

Nevada + 11 at New Mexico (Saturday at 10:15 P.M.)

Nevada's starting quarterback, Tyler Stewart, is out for the season with a shoulder injury that he suffered in their last game (against Wyoming). Though they had a bye week for Ty Ganji to get used to running the offense, I don't think the offense will be as effective without the man who has been leading them for the past two seasons.

In Nevada's pistol offense, the quarterback is not required to make tons of big plays in order for the team to be successful. The Wolfpack's running game has come up big in their three wins, but New Mexico's has a decent run defense. The Lobos are ranked 42nd in the FBS in rushing defense (top third), giving up 143.4 yards per game, and they should be able to pack the line, given the circumstances at quarterback.

Meanwhile, New Mexico has the top rushing offense in the FBS, both in terms of rushing yards per game and total rushing touchdowns. They should be able to pound the ball and wear down the Wolfpack defense.

Nevada is 3-5 (1-3 in the Mountain West); New Mexico is 5-3 (3-1 in the Mountain West), and the game is being played at New Mexico.

I had to look it up, but, apparently a lobo is a type of wolf (but calling yourselves the Lobos sounds cooler than calling yourselves the wolves), so I hope I sound cool when I say, Go Lobos!



I am going to add something new this week; instead of listing the game that I would most like to see live, because the new listing of lines from Westgate also includes over/unders, I am going to pick five of those:
Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee State Over 63.5
Nebraska at Ohio State: Under 52.5
Air Force at Army: Under 50
Florida International at Western Kentucky: Under 65.5
Washington at California: Over 78

BTW, I would most like to be at Alabama at LSU.

If I keep saying "this week is going to be my week", I'll be right eventually, right?