Week 12

The Professor is back! The good news is: I stopped my streak of losing weeks. The bad news is: I was not able to have a winning week. I went 2-2-1. My picks of LSU and Texas Tech won; my picks of Wyoming and Michigan lost, and my pick of Kentucky pushed.

Unfortunately that means that I did not make up any ground. I have still lost eight more games than I have won and am now 22-30-3 on the season.

Which means I better start winning again, so here are my Week 12 picks:

Once again, all lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18054586/college-football-full-list-week-12-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.

Ohio State -21.5 at Michigan State (Saturday at noon)

The many losses by highly ranked teams last week helped Ohio State's chances of getting in the College Football Playoff. If they win out, the Buckeyes should be guaranteed a spot in the CFP. They know what's at stake, so they should be plenty motivated. The Buckeyes have shown that motivation and that they are one of the best teams in the country with back-to-back 62-3 wins (against Nebraska and Maryland).

Michigan State had the good fortune of playing Rutgers this past week and ended their seven-game losing streak (sorry Rutgers fans, the truth hurts). The Spartans were ranked 12th in the AP preseason poll, but are now 3-7 and cannot become bowl eligible. I do think they still have talent, but, the Spartans won't have that extra spark, which is needed to beat a team like this year's Buckeyes.

Psychology aside, the two teams have played comparable schedules. Ohio State is the second highest scoring team in the FBS with 46.5 points per game; Michigan State is 84th with 26.1 points per game. Ohio State ranks fourth in the FBS with a +13 turnover margin; Michigan State is tied for 92nd with a -3 turnover margin. Ohio State has a huge advantage over Michigan State in almost every major statistical category.

Plus, having watched both teams play this season, Ohio State consistently looks amazing, while Michigan State consistently looks, well, less than amazing.

Psychology, numbers, and the eye test say it will be another decisive victory for the Buckeyes. OH-IO!

Maryland +15 at Nebraska (Saturday at noon)

The main reason why I like this line is that Nebraska's offense is not that good. Despite being 8-2 and tied for first place in the BIG TEN West (though Wisconsin wins the tiebreaker because they beat Nebraska), the Cornhuskers are tied for 66th in the FBS in points scored per game with 28.3 points per game. If you only count their BIG TEN game, Nebraska is averaging only 21.9 points per game.

Maryland isn't great; they're 5-5 (2-5 in the BIG TEN), but they have been able to put up an average of 20.6 points per game against conference opponents this season.

Nebraska won't be helped by the fact that it doesn't look like their quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. is even particularly close to being completely healthy. After suffering a concussion two weeks ago against Ohio State and an ankle injury last week against Minnesota, it is unclear how effective he will be.

I expect a low scoring game, in which 15 points should be more than enough to cover. Cowabunga! (major props to you if you get that reference)

Texas Tech  -3 at Iowa State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)

I'm taking Texas Tech for the second week in a row, and I'm picking the Red Raiders this week for the same reason as I did last week: they put up a ton of points. Their prolific spread offense is the third highest scoring team in the FBS. They put up 44 points this past week against a talented Oklahoma State team that is ranked 12th and only lost by one (which covered the spread and gave me a win). Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomas, the Red Raiders are the top passing offense in the FBS.

Coming off back-to-back close losses (against Texas and Oklahoma State), Texas Tech needs victories in their final two games to become bowl eligible.  Iowa State is 2-8, cannot become bowl eligible, and has the 60th ranked pass defense in the FBS.

It's hard to lose a game when you light up the scoreboard like Texas Tech has done this season. Somehow, the Red Raiders have managed to do that six times this season, but each of those teams is significantly better and has more talent that Iowa State.

The Red Raiders continue to light up the scoreboard (but win this time) as they embarrass the Cyclones in Ames. Guns up!

Stanford -11 at California (Saturday at 5:30 P.M.)

I'm going with the sentimental pick here. The Cardinal have had a whirlwind season. They were ranked eighth in the AP Preseason Poll, won their first three games, lost three of their next four games, and have won their last three games. These last three wins should have boosted Stanford's confidence.

California has some nice wins on the season, but they have lost their last three games, giving up an average of 55.7 points per game.

Most of the Golden Bears' wins have come in games where they gave up a lot of points but were able to score even more with their spread offense. Stanford has a solid, disciplined pass defense, which is giving up only 211.0 passing yards per game. So, California should not be able to count on winning by putting up big numbers in the passing game.

(My friend) Christian McCaffrey missed a few games with an injury but has still put up over 1,100 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. He and the rest of the Cardinal team will want to finish strong and should have the chance going against a team that is second to last in the FBS in total defense.

There is a reason why Stanford currently sits at 7-3, while California is 4-6. The Axe will stay in Palo Alto for another year. Fear the Tree!

UTEP +1.5 at Rice

I'm going to go against the home team on this one. The main reason for this is Rice's defense (or lack thereof). Unless you have an unbelievable offense (e.g Texas Tech and Arizona State), it's really hard to win a game with terrible defense. Rice's defense is terrible. They are fourth worst in the FBS in total defense and have repeatedly been unable to stop their opponent. In fact, opponents have set some offensive records against Rice this year.

The Owls' offense, while not bad (they rank sixth out of the 13 Conference USA teams in total offense), it has not been near enough to make up for their defensive shortcomings. This combination is largely why the Owls are 2-8 with their wins coming over Prairie View A&M and Charlotte.

I'm not saying that UTEP is much better. They are only 3-7 and have been blown out a few times. Rice and UTEP have played comparable schedules, and the Owls' average point differential is -14.1 points per game, while the Miners' is -11.3 points per game. While that difference is not much, I think it will be magnified by UTEP's strong running game, led by Aaron Jones, who already has 1,397 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns against an Owls' rushing defense that is 102nd in the FBS, giving up an average of 216.6 yards per game.

The men from West Texas will find success in their journey into the eastern part of the state. Go Miners!

I went 2-3 in my over/under picks this past week. My over/under picks this week are:
Missouri at Tennessee Under 67
Louisville at Houston Over 68,5
UTEP at Rice Over 58
Virginia at Georgia Tech Under 56
Arizona State at Washington Over 64.5
*The over/unders are listed by each game on ESPN.com's NCAA football scoreboard: http://www.espn.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/group/8/year/2016/seasontype/2/week/12

For reference, here are my results from last week:
Wins:Wake Forest at Louisville Over 54.5 (56 points)
Vanderbilt at Missouri Under 54.5 (43 points)
Losses:
West Virginia at Texas Over 64 (44 points)
Baylor at Oklahoma Over 80 (69 points)
San Diego State at Nevada Under 51 (62 points)

This past week, The Professor's Predictions passed 500 page views for the season! Thank you for your support.