Week 11

The Professor is back! Week 10 was yet another step back. My pick of Alabama won, but my picks of  Texas A&M, Florida, Syracuse, New Mexico lost. New Mexico came 3 points short of covering the spread. They had two red zone turnovers and a missed field goal in that game.

I am now 20-28-2 (.417) on the season and have been moving in the wrong direction for several weeks. I am running out of reasons to excuse my continued poor performance, but that still doesn't mean that I have to face the cold, hard truth.

I'm hoping that I will not need to make up yet another reason for a bad week, so here are my Week 11 picks:

Once again, the lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17999577/college-football-full-list-week-11-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone

Kentucky +13 at Tennessee (Saturday at noon)

Since Tennessee's 5-0 start (with all of those big fourth quarter comebacks), the Volunteers are 1-3 (yes; they managed to beat Tennessee Tech this past weekend). In their three losses, all against strong SEC teams, the Volunteers have turned the ball over 11 times.

Kentucky is 3-1 in their last four games, with their three wins coming against good SEC teams (though not as tough as Tennessee's schedule). In those three wins, Kentucky, led by running backs Benny Snell Jr. and Stephen Johnson is averaging 299.0 rushing yards per game and has six rushing touchdowns.

Tennessee's is 83rd in the FBS in rushing defense, giving up 191.7 rushing yards per game. So Kentucky should be able to rack up the rushing yards while wearing down the Tennessee defense, which could open up even more opportunities for the Wildcats' offense.

Tennessee is averaging just 4.8 more points per game this season than Kentucky. Tennessee is having a disappointing season after coming in with high expectations and starting the season 5-0. Kentucky is one of the most impressively surprising teams this season and is just a half game behind Florida for first place in the SEC East.

I just don't see Kentucky losing this matchup by more than a few points (if at all). For the first time ever, I'm taking the men from Lexington!

Wyoming -7 at UNLV (Saturday at 3 P.M.)

This week's matchup of non-Power 5 teams comes out of the Mountain West Conference.

Wyoming is 7-2 and their two losses have come at Nebraska and by three points at Eastern Michigan.  UNLV is 3-6 with wins over Jacksonville State, Fresno State, and Hawaii.

The Cowboys are on a five-game winning streak with wins over 8-1 Boise State and 6-3 Air Force.

Rebels' quarterback Kurt Palandech will be making his first start of the season.  Johnny Stanton suffered an injury earlier this season, and Dalton Sneed was benched in favor of Palandech. I think a teams tend to struggle with changes at quarterback.

UNLV's biggest strength is their running game. The Rebels are 19th in the FBS in rushing offense with 236.2 rushing yards per game, but Wyoming has the 37th best rush defense giving up 138.4 rushing yards per game.

I've seen parts of different Wyoming games this season, and I like the way they play. I don't know much about UNLV, but, after looking at the matchup, I feel quite comfortable giving seven points.

Saddle up, Cowboys!

Texas Tech +12.5 at Oklahoma State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)

Say what you want about Texas Tech, the team lights up the scoreboard every game. The Red Raiders rank first in the FBS in passing offense, second in total offense, fourth in total offense.

Oklahoma State ranks 80th in the FBS in passing defense and 98th in total defense.

That's the extent of my analysis. Texas Tech puts up enough points to make me comfortable that they will not lose by more than a couple points at the most.

I'm not sure what makes a Red Raider red, but I'm taking them this week!

LSU -7 at Arkansas (Saturday at 7 P.M.)

LSU looked extremely impressive against Alabama. Despite the loss, the Tigers showed they have an elite defense that can pretty much contain the best team in the country.

LSU is second to last in the SEC in pass offense, but sixth in the SEC (a conference with many great running backs) with 214.0 yards per game. Alabama was able to beat LSU by containing Leonard Fournette and the TIgers' rushing attack.

Meanwhile, Arkansas is ranked 91st in the FBS in rushing defense. LSU's ability to run successfully should open up some plays in the passing game and the Tigers' defense should have lots of confidence after how they performed against Alabama.

LSU will be able to move the ball consistently, while their defense will not let Arkansas do the same.

The news that Mike VI has sarcoma and would no longer attend games was sad, but the football team will excel in his absence. Geaux Tigers!

Michigan -20.5 at Iowa (Saturday at 8 P.M.)

Michigan is 9-0 and ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings, and the Wolverines have an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Michigan coach, Jim Harbaugh, has shown time and time again that, even with a big lead late in a game, he does not take his foot off of the gas.

The Wolverines are averaging 162.0 more yards of offense per game than the Hawkeyes, and their defense is giving up 155.7 fewer yards per game. Michigan's third down conversion percentage on offense is 12.5 percent higher than Iowa's, and opponents' third down conversion percentage against Michigan's defense is 17.4 percent lower than Michigan.

Michigan has several big wins this season. The best team that Iowa beat was probably Minnesota. Against common opponents, the Wolverines have put up significantly better numbers in all facets of the game.

It's the Maize and Blue again for me this week. Give me the Wolverine head!

Last week, I added a new feature to my blog where I picked five over/under lines. I went 3-2 in those. Since that is the only bright spot in the Professor's Predictions over the last several weeks, I have decided to continue that feature.

Over/Under lines come from betus.com: http://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/college-football-lines.aspx

Wake Forest at Louisville Over 54.5
West Virginia at Texas Over 64
Baylor at Oklahoma Over 80
Vanderbilt at Missouri Under 54.5
San Diego State at Nevada Under 51

For reference, these were my picks last week:
Wins:
Texas-San Antonio at Middle Tennessee State Over 63.5 (70 points)
Washington at California: Over 78 (93 points)
Air Force at Army: Under 50 (43 points)
Losses:
Nebraska at Ohio State: Under 52.5 (65 points)
Florida International at Western Kentucky: Under 65.5  (70 points)

I really hope this week will finally be my breakthrough week!