Week 5

The Professor is back! I am coming off my second consecutive 3-2 week and feeling good.

My overall record for the season is now 10-9-1, which means...I am back in the black! (no relation to the great AC/DC song Back in Black)

The early season rust is off, and I am all go from here. So here are my Week 5 picks:

Again, the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17650637/college-football-full-list-week-5-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

All times are Eastern Time Zone

Rutgers +38 at Ohio State (Saturday at noon)

Despite my hesitancy to pick games with extremely large spreads, Ohio State has been dominant enough for me to warrant taking them this week.

The Buckeyes have looked strong on both offense and defense, blowing out Bowling Green and Tulsa by 67 and 45 points. In their first major test of the season, Ohio State won decisively over Oklahoma. J.T. Barrett is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country and is playing behind an offensive line that has allowed two sacks through three games. In those three games, the Buckeyes have only turned the ball over twice and have forced 11 turnovers for a nation-leading +9 turnover margin.

In their two games against Power-5 Conference teams, the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers have averaged just ten points of offense while giving up an average of 31 points. Rutgers has fewer than 200 passing yards in both of those games. They are facing a defense that has given up an average of 102.3 rush yards per game. Rutgers won't be able to pass or rush the ball and the Buckeyes will score early and often.

The fans at the Horseshoe in Columbus will have a treat. I'll take the Buckeyes and give all of the points. O-H...I-O!

Virginia +3.5 at Duke (Saturday at 12:30 P.M.)

Duke's victory over Notre Dame was quite impressive. After earlier bad losses against Wake Forest and Northwestern, the question is how much can we read into the Blue Devils' victory over the Irish.

I think Duke is a solid team, but this prediction has more to do with the ineptitude that Virginia has shown so far this season. There were high hopes in Charlottesville with the hiring of Bronco Mendenhall, but those hopes were quickly tempered after a Week 1 loss to FCS foe Richmond.

The Cavaliers looked equally inept in their losses against Oregon and Connecticut. They were able to get their first victory this past week over Central Michigan, but UVA is still quite weak and have turned the ball over eight times.

That Virginia team is going up against a Duke team that just got a huge boost of confidence after beating Notre Dame. David Cutcliffe has completely turned around Duke football. The Blue Devils have had games this season where they have struggled either running the ball or passing the ball, but, in those games, the other part of the offense took over and did well. Duke's defense has not been greatly outplayed in any of their games.

A team that can move the ball and score has a distinct advantage (understatement) over a team that cannot do so. I'm taking Duke to give the home fans something to cheer about at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday!

Akron -7 at Kent State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)

This week's match-up between two non-Power 5 Conference teams features two teams from the Mid-American Conference, better known as the MAC. Both campuses are in Northeast Ohio. In fact, according to Google Maps, it takes under a half an hour to drive the 16.5 miles between the two campuses.

The Golden Flashes (lightning?) of Kent State lost in quadruple overtime to an FCS team (albeit a strong FCS team) North Carolina A&T. The offense has struggled. They have turned the ball over in all four of their games. They have only put up 300 yards of offense in their one win (in Week 2 over Monmouth); they only put up 275 total yards of offense in a quadruple overtime game against an FCS opponent.

Other than a bad loss against a strong Wisconsin team, the Zips of Akron have looked strong on offense, averaging over 52 points a game. The Zips have three strong running backs. They have looked good the past two weeks with a dominating win over Marshall and a seven point loss against a strong Appalachian State team.

Zippy the Kangaroo is one of my favorite college mascots, and I'm going with Zippy this week!

South Florida (even) at Cincinnati (Saturday at 7 P.M.)

With their top quarterback, running back, and receiver returning this season, USF was poised for a strong offensive season. They are averaging 46 points per game, and put up 35 points this past week against a strong Florida State defense. With an offense that has 10 of 11 starters who are either juniors or seniors, I like their experience and maturity. Plus, the eight turnovers that they have forced has helped them get to 3-1.

Cincinnati has looked good this season also. They have nice wins over Purdue and Miami (Ohio), but there offense has yet to impress me. In their game against the University of Houston, a strong offensive team, the Bearcats got significantly out-earned in every offensive category and got out-possessed by over 16 minutes.

While I don't think South Florida is on the same level as Houston, I do think the Bulls offense will prove too much for the Bearcats, leading the way to a South Florida victory. I'm running with the Bulls this week!

Arizona State +8 at USC (Saturday at 8:30 P.M.)

After opening the 2016 season with high hopes, the Trojans have been a huge disappointment to their fans. They had a nice win over Utah State in Week 2, but, in their other three games (all against Power 5 conference teams), USC is averaging 14.3 points per game and lost by an average margin of 22.3 points. Their fans, players, and coaches are frustrated.

On the other hand, Arizona State has been one of the most (offensively) impressive teams this season. They are 4-0, averaging 48.8 points per game. Their quarterback Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage have had their way with every defense that they have faced.

USC's slide continues as they are unable to keep up with Arizona State. Sparky lights it up at the Coliseum!

Game I would most like to watch live: #3 Louisville at #5 Clemson

Louisville and Lamar Jackson are the team to watch so far this year. Jackson is a defender-hurdling, touchdown-scoring (both rushing and passing) machine who has gone from relative anonymity to Heisman frontrunner in under a month. Louisville has gained a lot more attention and credibility after their decisive victory over Florida State.

The Cardinals are taking on the Tigers at a stadium known as Death Valley, a place as foreboding for those who venture there as its name implies. Both teams come in undefeated and ranked in the top five and with sky-high expecations. Clemson's only loss last season came in the national championship game to Alabama and their quarterback Deshaun Watson is a Heisman contender.

Two great teams, a great stadium, and enthusiastic fans (I expect a good number of Louisville fans to make the 439 mile journey for this game) should make the environment there off the charts on Saturday evening.

Here we go again!

Week 4

The Professor is back! I had my first winning week in Week 3, going 3-2. My picks of Houston, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M won, and my picks of Marshall and Florida lost.

That brings my season record to 7-7-1. I am not in the black yet. Also, most against the spread bets are -110, meaning I would have to bet $11 to win $10, so I have to have a record higher than .550 in order to make money.

I have improved (barely) each week so far, and I will try to continue that trend, so here are my Week 4 picks:

(Once again the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17594462/college-football-full-list-week-4-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook) and all times are Eastern Time Zone

Penn State + 18.5 at Michigan (Saturday at 3:30)

     While it is still early this season, Michigan looks like it is for real this season and will contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff. 

     The Wolverines won their first three games decisively. Quarterback Wilton Speight's arm is strong and accurate. Their defense starts two juniors and nine seniors. I really like a team with experience and maturity, and it doesn't get much better than Michigan's defense. The Wolverines are explosive and skillful. They look strong on film. Plus, Jim Harbaugh knows how win games.

     Penn State is not a bad team, but redshirt sophomore quarterback Trace McSorely hasn't looked particularly strong in his year starting. Also, Penn Stats has turned the ball over eight times in the first three weeks of play, which is definitely a troubling sign.
    The maize and blue will just be too much. Wolves over lions.

Howl!

Army -14 at Buffalo (Saturday at 7)

     This week's game of two non-Power 5 conference team features an FBS independent and a team from the MAC. 

     I'm high on Army this year. I think the triple option (when run well, is a strong offense (plus, it looks cool). Army has five different players with at least 100 rushing yards on the season. They have at least 300 rushing yards in each of their first three games (over 400 in their Week 3 win over UTEP). A big reason for this is their offensive line, which has two seniors and three juniors.

     Buffalo lost in Week 1 against FCS team Albany. The Bulls put up just 16 points in that matchup. They had four turnovers in that game (3 interceptions and one lost fumble). After a bye, the scored only 14 points in a loss against Nevada.

     Army will wear down the Buffalo defense, and the Buffalo offense won't be able to keep up. 

I'm putting on the knight's helmet for this game!

Nebraska -7 at Northwestern (Saturday at 7:30)

     Nebraska impressed me in their upset win over Oregon this past weekend. The Cornhusker defense held the potent Duck offense to 32 points. In fact, the defense has been strong in all three of their wins. They have forced 8 turnovers.  Tommy Armstrong Jr. is a strong dual-threat quarterback.       He has seven passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns.

Northwestern has struggled so far this season. After opening with a one-point loss to Western Michigan, the Wildcats then lost to FCS Illinois State before beating Duke this past weekend. They have averaged just over 17 points on offense against three weak teams.

     Northwestern has struggled and Nebraska has looked strong. 

Pass the corn!

Oklahoma State +9.5 at Baylor (Saturday at 7:30)

     Oklahoma State has moved past the last-second Hail Mary loss to Central Michigan (on a play that shouldn't have happened), and Mike Gundy has the offense firing again. The cowboys had over 600 yards of offense in their win against a strong Pittsburgh team, and Mason Rudolph looks strong in his third year as starting quarterback for Oklahoma State.

     On the other hand, despite their 3-0 record, Baylor has looked weak. They've gotten off to slow starts and relied on strong finishes against overmatched SMU and Rice teams to secure solid victories. I've seen some clips from their games, and the Bears do not seem ferocious this year.

     I predict it will be a very high scoring game. 

I'll take the points and the ten-gallon hat!

Louisville -25 at Marshall (Saturday at 8)

     I have joined the Louisville/Lamar Jackson bandwagon. Their domination of Florida State this past weekend was impressive. Not only did they score 63 points against the #2 team in the nation, but they held the Seminoles to just 20 points, with one touchdown coming on a punt return.

     Lamar Jackson is incredibly talented. The Cardinals have put up 60+

 points in each of their first three games and has an average winning margin of over 44 points,

     After beating an FCS opponent Week 1 and having a bye Week 2, the Thundering Herd gave up 65 points and over 500 yards to Akron. Marshall also turned the ball over four times.

     This is going to be a rough day for the fans in Huntington, West Virginia.

Give me the Cardinal head!

Game I would most like to see live: Arkansas at Texas A&M

    Any game at Kyle Field is a can't miss event. On Saturday, the Home of the 12th Man will host two SEC West rivals. Both teams are ranked and both are 3-0. The always energetic crowd will be even more excited for this game.

     The Stadium is always full of extremely passionate fans. This is a game not to miss.

And we're off!

Week 3

The Professor is back!

I had another mediocre week in Week 2. I went 2-2-1 (I was sitting high after I started the day 2-0). My picks of Army and USC won; my picks of Akron and Texas Tech lost, and my pick of Alabama was a push (due to a fourth quarter lost fumble by the Tide).

I am now 4-5-1 overall this season. Not a great record, but not one that puts me deep in the hole either. As coaches are like to say, it's a long season.

Speaking of which, I want to disclose that I am not actually betting money on these games, but not because I don't have confidence in my picks, simply because I don't have the money to bet. If I did, I definitely would

I am going to blame my mediocre first two weeks on beginner's rust. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

With all of that being said, here are my Week 3 picks:

Once again the lines are from Westgate Casino, posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17536383/college-football-full-list-week-3-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone

Houston -7 vs. Cincinnati (Thursday at 7:30 P.M.)
Who says college football has to be played on a Saturday?
I was holding off on this game, but once it was announced that Greg Ward Jr. would be starting, it became a desirable option. The cougars have won 15 consecutive games with Ward as starting quarterback. Houston looked extremely impressive in their upset of #3 Oklahoma in Week 1. They played extremely physical football and they were strong on offense, defense, and special teams.
Houston lost only one game last season and finished the season with a win over a strong Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
The Cincinnati gave up over 300 yards of offense to Tennessee-Martin in their Week 1 victory and over 500 yards of offense to Purdue in their Week 2 victory.
I don't see the Bearcats being able to matchup with the Cougars in this game.
I'm taking the Coogs and predicting a decisive victory!

Marshall -16.5 vs. Akron (Saturday at noon)
This is my weekly game between two non-Power 5 Conference FBS teams. There's not a big sample size of information to draw upon for Marshall this season. They had a bye Week 1 and beat Morgan State 62-0 in their first game. Even against a school like Morgan State, that zero is impressive. Often times, top FBS teams will give up one field goal or a touchdown to an FCS opponent.
Marshall went 10-3 last season and 13-1 the year before that. I like a program with that recent winning trend.
After Akron's Week 1 47-24 victory over the Virginia Military Institute, the Zips looked awful in their 54-10 loss against Wisconsin. Akron didn't do much on offense and looked extremely weak on offense, and, while I don't think Marshall is quite at the caliber of Wisconsin, I don't see this game going Akron's way.
Plus, Marshall is at home, and I believe home-field advantage is worth a couple points.
I'm taking the Herd and giving the points!

Texas Tech -11.5 vs. Louisiana Tech (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
I went with Texas Tech last week and lost that game, but Texas Tech put up 55 points and 612 yards in that effort. However, they gave up 69 points and 652 yards to Arizona State. That's a bad defensive sign when your offense scores 55 points and you lose the game by two touchdowns. Arizona State's Kalen Ballage. With the Red Raider defense going up against a less talented offense, I think they will be able to come up with a few stops.
There offense will continue to put up big numbers, so I feel comfortable giving the 11.5 points to the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech in this game.
Texas Tech wins the battle of the Techs!

Texas A&M -2.5 vs Auburn (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
The Aggies of Texas A&M have surprised me by how strong they have looked through their first two games. I was quite surprised by their Week 1 overtime upset of a highly touted UCLA team. The three interceptions that the defense came up with in that game helped put A&M over the edge.
The Aggies defense, led by defensive end Myles Garret, who is currently #1 on Mel Kiper Jr.'s NFL Draft Big Board, has looked strong. I think Trevor Knight has found a home in college station, and Kevin Sumlin is a great coach who knows how to coach a strong offense to victory.
Auburn put up only 262 yards and 13 points in a close Week 1 lost against second-ranked Clemson., and Sean White and Jeremy Johnson each threw an interception for Auburn in that game. I think Texas A&M's defense might actually be better than Clemson's.
I have the Aggies winning a low scoring game.
Gig'em!

Florida -36 vs. North Texas (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
I normally try to avoid games with extremely large spreads because they can be unpredictable, but I believe the Florida offense has enough skill and power to cover this line. While the Gators struggled in the first half against UMASS in Week 1, I think a large part of that was rust and/or nerves.
The Gators looked extremely impressive in their Week 2 45-7 victory over Kentucky.
I really like experience and the Gators are returning eight starters each on offense and defense.
North Texas only won one game last season, and given the talent on Florida's team, it could be a long night for North Texas.
I'm not sure what a Mean Green is, but, regardless, I don't think they will be mean enough to prevent being steamrolled by the Gators.
Chomp! Chomp!

Game I would most like to see live: College Gameday will be making it's first ever trip to Louisville for the Cardinals match-up against second-ranked Florida State, and I'd like to be joining them. What Lamar Jackson has done in just the first two weeks of the season is incredible, launching him from relative obscurity into a legitimate Heisman contender. The upstart Cardinals against the powerhouse Seminoles should be an exciting match-up that produces plenty of highlights.

Let the games begin!

Week 2

The professor is back! Okay, so my first week wasn't the best. I went 2-3 against the spread. My picks of Indiana and Alabama won, and my picks of Stanford, San Jose State, and Clemson lost.

I learned that I need to do more research. I went too much with my gut in Week 1 and did not do enough research.

I will try to do better, so here are my Week 2 picks:

The lines come from ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17487801/college-football-full-list-week-2-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook

All times are Eastern Time Zone

Army -8.5 vs. Rice (Saturday at noon)
This is my weekly match-up between two non-Power 5 conferences. Army only had 15 passing yards against Temple, but they picked up 329 yards on the ground. The Black Knights looked very strong against Temple, the defending American Athletic Conference. Army's 50% (7 for 14) third down conversion rate is a good sign. The triple option offense can wear down a defense and the Army offensive line starts three juniors and two seniors. The Rice defense gave up 649 yards and 46 points to Western Kentucky, and it's going to be another long day against Army. The Army Goes Rolling Along!

USC -16.5 vs. Utah State (Saturday at 2 P.M.)
On the flip side, I don't think USC is nearly as bad as their Week 1 score would make you think. They just played Alabama, and I think USC will be extra motivated to perform well after their blowout Week 1 loss. They have nine returning starters on offense including Juju Smith-Schuster, one of the most talented wide receivers in the country (and probably the one with the best first name). The Trojans are going up against an Aggie defense that is only returning three starters. I think the talent of USC will be too much for Utah State.

Alabama -28 vs. Western Kentucky (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
I predicted complete dominance by Alabama last week and dominate, they did. By far the most consistently dominant team I've seen over the past few years. Their offensive and defensive lines dominate both sides of the line of scrimmage. Alabama had an interception returned for a touchdown, forced two fumbles, and gave up fewer than 200 total offensive yards. Oh, and they also put up 52 points . All of this was against a talented USC team. I don't expect Western Kentucky to fare any better. I know I used forms of the word dominate several times, and while it may not good journalistic style, that's how good Alabama is. The Tide continues to roll!


Akron +24.5 vs Wisconsin (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Yes; Wisconsin's Week 1 upset against LSU was extremely impressive, and, no, I don't think I should read that much into Akron's victory over the Virginia Military Institute. I don't see Wisconsin putting up a ton of points against a stout Akron defense that was the 15th best in the FBS last season. Akron quarterback Tommy Woodson, in his third year as a starter, has consistently improved and should be able to score a couple times. I'm taking the points and going with Zippy!

Texas Tech +3 vs. Arizona State (Saturday at 10 P.M.)
Texas Tech puts up a ton of yards and scores a bunch of points. Their potent spread offense led by second year starter Patrick Mahomes II, who put up over 4,500 passing yards in 2015, should continue to do so against the Sun Devils. Even with a weak defense, a Red Raider team that is that strong offensively is a good bet against an Arizona State team that returns six starters from a defense that ranked 120th against the pass in 2015. Expect Texas Tech to win a shootout.

Game I would most like to see in person: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
A record crowd of 150,000 people are expected for this game, which will be held at Bristol Motor Speedway. Having been at sparsely attended games as well as sold-out games, I know the difference that a large energetic crowd can make to the atmosphere. Tennessee will be out to demonstrate that they are a top-10 team and that their week 1 nail-biter against Appalachian State was a fluke. A good game and a great crowd should make this the place to be on Saturday.

With that, it's time to see how I do.