The Professor is back! Last week was a step backwards when I had really hoped to be moving forward. I went 2-3 with my picks of Alabama and Colorado winning and my picks of Clemson, Kansas, and South Florida losing. South Florida was covering with a couple minutes left when UConn scored a garbage time touchdown to go from down 22 to down 15 (the spread was South Florida -20); the Bulls then took a few knees to run the game clock out. Gotta love those garbage time TDs that screw up the spread.
Oh well. Them's the breaks. Here are my Week 8 picks:
Once again all betting lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17824030/college-football-full-list-week-8-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
North Texas +18 vs. Army (Saturday at noon)
This week's matchup of two teams from non-Power 5 conferences sees me picking the Army Black Knights for the fourth time. They just pound the ball all game long. They are leading the FBS with 366.8 rush yards per game, and, if you take out the Duke game that was played in Hurricane Matthew, they are averaging 407.2 (the lowest rushing total in one of those games was 329 yards). Not surprisingly, they dominate time of possession.
Meanwhile, the Mean Green of North Texas are ranked 87th in the FBS in rushing defense, giving up 189 yards per game. They have given up at least 150 rushing yards in five of their six games, giving up over 250 yards in three of them.
This matchup of Army's rush offense against North Texas's rush defense will be the story of the game. This story will not be a happy one for the Mean Green. Army will rush for over 400 yards and will out-possess North Texas by about 15 minutes.
The Mean Green will not be mean enough. Give me the knight's helmet again!
Oklahoma State -24 at Kansas (Saturday at noon)
I had Kansas +35 this past week against Baylor figuring that the Jayhawks could score a couple times against a weak Baylor defense and keep the Baylor offense from completely scoring at will. Alas, neither of these happened. Kansas looked completely inept on both sides of the ball.
I will not make the same mistake twice. I think the Oklahoma State team is quite similar to Baylor. Both teams have spread offenses that score a bunch and defenses that will give up a couple scores.
Kansas was not able to string together more than a few first downs in their game against Baylor, and they had five turnovers, four of which were interceptions.
Having seen both teams in action this season, I'm comfortable giving this many points. Give me the Cowboys; I'm putting on the ten-gallon hat!
Arkansas +9.5 at Auburn (Saturday at 6 P.M.)
The Razorbacks have looked strong this year. They are 5-2, with those two losses coming against Texas A&M and Alabama, two of the best teams in the SEC (and probably the country). In those two games. Arkansas put up 24 and 30 points and 493 and 476 yards. Their defense was not able to make enough stops for those numbers to be enough, but the defense has looked strong in all of the other games. Plus, I really like the way quarterback Austin Allen plays.
Auburn's two losses came against Clemson and Texas A&M, two equally good teams. However, they have not put up the numbers that Arkansas has, and, frankly, just have not looked as impressive.
Both teams played Texas A&M and lost, but Arkansas scored eight more points, picked up 92 more yards of offense, and one more first down that Auburn did in that game.
When I threw all that together I came to once conclusion. I think it will be a close game, but this is too sweet of a spread to turn down. Woo Pig Sooie!
Oklahoma -14 at Texas Tech (Saturday at 6:30 P.M.)
Let's face it, Texas Tech has no defense. I know that statement is not literally true, but it's close. The Red Raiders rank 117th out of 128 FBS teams in total defense and 124th in scoring defense. It was a telling sign when they scored 55 points against Arizona State in Week 2 (a week in which I picked them), yet still lost the game by 14 points. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomas II is still struggling with a shoulder injury, and, going against a tough Big 12 defense in West Virginia this past week, the Red Raiders only put up 17 points.
After going 1-2 in their first three games, Oklahoma has won three straight games, all against conference opponents. Their quarterback, Baker Mayfield (a Texas Tech transfer), is completing an amazing 70.6% of his passes. Even with Samaje Perine out, the Sooners should still have strong running game; Joe Mixon has 476 rushing yards (one more than Perine). Their defense has not been amazing, but it should be able to make many more stops than the Texas Tech defense.
Sooners go over 50 points in their take-down of the Red Raiders. Boomer Sooner!
Washington State -7 at Arizona State (Saturday at 10 P.M.)
After starting 4-0, Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins hurt his ankle and left the USC game. The Sun Devils lost that game and this past week at Colorado (two of their last three games). Their defense, never their strong suit can no longer be compensated for by huge offensive numbers. Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage, who were instrumental in the 4-0 start, just have not looked good these past three games, and though Wilkins is expected to start (as he did in Colorado), his ankle is still nowhere close to 100%, a key in a spread offense like Arizona States.
Washington State, on the other hand, has come on strong in their past three games, all PAC-12 wins (against Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA). The Cougars have put up strong offensive numbers and have forced multiple turnovers in each of those games.
I don't foresee Arizona State being able to keep up. I'm taking the Cougars!
Game I would most like to see live: Texas A&M at Alabama
You knew I wouldn't stay away from the SEC for long. This game should be exciting. First of all, any game in Tuscaloosa is going to be electric (and loud). Both teams are undefeated; both are ranked in the top ten. They both have some of the best fans in all of college football. And now, they are in the same division. Whoever wins this game is extremely likely to win the SEC West.
Great teams, great fans, and a lot at stake should make this one of the best games of the year. My good friend and The Professor's Predictions #1 fan, Daniel Landa, will be at that game. I'm jealous.
Through seven weeks, I am yet to have a breakthrough week. Will Week 8 be the first?
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Week 7
The Professor is back! I'm back on my winning ways with a 3-2 Week 6. My picks of Michigan, Washington, and Georgia won, while my picks of Western Kentucky and Army lost. I got some help in the Georgia game when, the Bulldogs' Terry Goodwin grabbed the South Carolina onside kick in the closing minute and returned it for a touchdown, thus unlikely covering the spread (which resulted in a disappointed Brent Musberger).
That winning week put my overall record this season at 15-14-1. It's nice to be back above 0.500, but I'd like to have some more cushion between me and that mark.
So, let's increase that cushion. Here are my Week 7 picks:
Once again, all betting lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17770335/college-football-full-list-week-7-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
N.C. State +17 at Clemson (Saturday at noon)
Clemson proved that they are one of the top teams in the country and the team to beat in the ACC with their win over Louisville, and, a week after beating one of the top offensive teams in the country, the Tigers put up 56 points on Boston College, one of the top defensive teams in the country.
In addition to Deshaun Watson, an elite dual threat quarterback, running back Wayne Gallman has added another potent weapon to the Clemson offense. Plus, the game is in Death Valley, a place that is as ominous for opponents as it sounds,where the Clemson Tigers are 19-0 over the past three seasons.
While the Clemson offense gets a lot of publicity, their defense was key in their win over Louisville. They rank in the top ten in the FBS in third down defense and scoring defense.
N.C. State has a good offense with quarterback Ryan Finley and running back Matthew Dayes, but the strong Clemson defense should be able to stop them on most of their drives. N.C. State has put up good stats so far, but have not faced any really tough opponents (yes, I consider Notre Dame a mediocre team this year).
I think Clemson continues their regular season winning streak in decisive fashion.
I'm taking the Tigers over the Wolfpack in the battle of the beasts!
Kansas +35 at Baylor (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
While Baylor is sitting at 5-0, they have not put up the insanely high scores that they had been doing for the past couple years. They are averaging 42.6 points per game with an average margin of victory of 23.6 points per game. Their opponents have a combined record of 8-20, and only one of those teams has a winning record.
Kansas, while sitting at 1-4, has faced opponents with a combined record of 16-11, and four of those teams have winning records. The Jayhawks are averaging 15.2 points per game.
While I don't think the game will be close, with the numbers being what they are and the spread being this large, I have to go with Kansas.
Rock, chalk, Jayhawk!
Alabama -13 at Tennessee (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
There is no team in the country like Alabama. They demonstrate week in and week out why they are the top team in the nation.
Alabama dominates on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their offensive and defensive lines both control the line of scrimmage. Alabama is among the leaders in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The tide have given up fewer than 16 points per game while scoring almost 45 points per game.
If that were not enough, the Crimson Tide have scored an FBS-leading nine non-offensive touchdowns this season (seven on defense and two on punt returns).
Tennessee has fallen behind in every game this quarter, and, despite a miraculous strip of the ball to save what would have been a game-sealing touchdown against Texas A&M this past game to force overtime, the comeback magic ran out as they lost their first game of the season.
The Volunteers have turned the ball over in all six of their games, including seven turnovers against Texas A&M. Alabama is much to strong of a team to either fall behind or turn the ball over to.
Alabama has a margin of victory of over 23 points in their three games against ranked opponents this year. I think their success in big games will continue, as will their FBS-leading 18 game winning streak.
Roll, Tide, Roll!
Connecticut +19 at South Florida (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
This week's matchup between to non-Power 5 Conference teams (which I have not been doing well in so far) features two teams from the American Athletic Conference.
The Bulls of South Florida have been quietly putting up an impressive season. They are 5-1, with their one loss coming against Florida State. With their leading passer, rusher, and receiver from last season returning, the Bulls have the 8th highest scoring offense in the FBS, with 44.5 points per game.
The Bulls have over 200 yards both passing and rushing in their two American Athletic Conference games. They have a +4 turnover margin in those games. The South Florida defense has given up just over 23 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers.
Connecticut is 3-3 but doesn't have any impressive wins. Their quarterback has five touchdowns and four interceptions. Their three wins (including the opener against Maine have come by an average 5.7 points.
In their three losses, UCONN has given up an average of 34 points and 443 yards. Those losses came against strong offensive teams. Facing another strong offensive team in South Florida, I don't think the Huskies will be able to keep this one close.
I'm running with the Bulls!
Arizona State +13.5 at Colorado (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
Arizona State is a spread football team whose strategy to win has been to put up enormous offensive numbers and give up slightly less enormous numbers on defense. They are 5-1, so that strategy has been working pretty well so far.
The Sun Devils' starting quarterback suffered a knee injury in this past week's game against USC. The backup came in and suffered a season-ending foot injury. They also lost a quarterback to a knee injury during fall camp. Manny Wilkins the starting quarterback is questionable for this game. He has not been taking first team reps in practice, and, even if he does play, he won't be close to 100%.
So it looks like they will be starting a fourth-string true freshman who threw one pass in the USC game, which was intercepted. For an offense that relies on chucking the ball all over the field for success, this is a pretty devastating blow.
Colorado is a solid team which is averaging over 42 points a game while only giving up an average of around 17 points per game. They have five rushers with over 100 yards for the season, and their running game should wear down the Sun Devil Defense.
So, while I feel for the pressure that has been put on the young quarterback, Dillon Sterling-Cole, I have to take this opportunity to go with the Buffaloes.
I'm running with Ralph!
Game I would most like to see live: Ohio State at Wisconsin
I'm still staying out of the SEC. The Big 10 (I can't make my "IG" look like a 10) is looking like the top conference this year.
Both teams play physical football. The Buckeyes are looking to continue their undefeated season, and the Badgers are looking to rebound from their loss to Michigan last week.
A Big 10 Conference game in Camp Randall Stadium, with two of the top teams in the country, should be quite the environment on Saturday.
There you have it: Tigers, Jayhawks, Crimson Tide, Bulls, and Buffaloes. Is it Saturday yet?
That winning week put my overall record this season at 15-14-1. It's nice to be back above 0.500, but I'd like to have some more cushion between me and that mark.
So, let's increase that cushion. Here are my Week 7 picks:
Once again, all betting lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17770335/college-football-full-list-week-7-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
N.C. State +17 at Clemson (Saturday at noon)
Clemson proved that they are one of the top teams in the country and the team to beat in the ACC with their win over Louisville, and, a week after beating one of the top offensive teams in the country, the Tigers put up 56 points on Boston College, one of the top defensive teams in the country.
In addition to Deshaun Watson, an elite dual threat quarterback, running back Wayne Gallman has added another potent weapon to the Clemson offense. Plus, the game is in Death Valley, a place that is as ominous for opponents as it sounds,where the Clemson Tigers are 19-0 over the past three seasons.
While the Clemson offense gets a lot of publicity, their defense was key in their win over Louisville. They rank in the top ten in the FBS in third down defense and scoring defense.
N.C. State has a good offense with quarterback Ryan Finley and running back Matthew Dayes, but the strong Clemson defense should be able to stop them on most of their drives. N.C. State has put up good stats so far, but have not faced any really tough opponents (yes, I consider Notre Dame a mediocre team this year).
I think Clemson continues their regular season winning streak in decisive fashion.
I'm taking the Tigers over the Wolfpack in the battle of the beasts!
Kansas +35 at Baylor (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
While Baylor is sitting at 5-0, they have not put up the insanely high scores that they had been doing for the past couple years. They are averaging 42.6 points per game with an average margin of victory of 23.6 points per game. Their opponents have a combined record of 8-20, and only one of those teams has a winning record.
Kansas, while sitting at 1-4, has faced opponents with a combined record of 16-11, and four of those teams have winning records. The Jayhawks are averaging 15.2 points per game.
While I don't think the game will be close, with the numbers being what they are and the spread being this large, I have to go with Kansas.
Rock, chalk, Jayhawk!
Alabama -13 at Tennessee (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
There is no team in the country like Alabama. They demonstrate week in and week out why they are the top team in the nation.
Alabama dominates on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their offensive and defensive lines both control the line of scrimmage. Alabama is among the leaders in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The tide have given up fewer than 16 points per game while scoring almost 45 points per game.
If that were not enough, the Crimson Tide have scored an FBS-leading nine non-offensive touchdowns this season (seven on defense and two on punt returns).
Tennessee has fallen behind in every game this quarter, and, despite a miraculous strip of the ball to save what would have been a game-sealing touchdown against Texas A&M this past game to force overtime, the comeback magic ran out as they lost their first game of the season.
The Volunteers have turned the ball over in all six of their games, including seven turnovers against Texas A&M. Alabama is much to strong of a team to either fall behind or turn the ball over to.
Alabama has a margin of victory of over 23 points in their three games against ranked opponents this year. I think their success in big games will continue, as will their FBS-leading 18 game winning streak.
Roll, Tide, Roll!
Connecticut +19 at South Florida (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
This week's matchup between to non-Power 5 Conference teams (which I have not been doing well in so far) features two teams from the American Athletic Conference.
The Bulls of South Florida have been quietly putting up an impressive season. They are 5-1, with their one loss coming against Florida State. With their leading passer, rusher, and receiver from last season returning, the Bulls have the 8th highest scoring offense in the FBS, with 44.5 points per game.
The Bulls have over 200 yards both passing and rushing in their two American Athletic Conference games. They have a +4 turnover margin in those games. The South Florida defense has given up just over 23 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers.
Connecticut is 3-3 but doesn't have any impressive wins. Their quarterback has five touchdowns and four interceptions. Their three wins (including the opener against Maine have come by an average 5.7 points.
In their three losses, UCONN has given up an average of 34 points and 443 yards. Those losses came against strong offensive teams. Facing another strong offensive team in South Florida, I don't think the Huskies will be able to keep this one close.
I'm running with the Bulls!
Arizona State +13.5 at Colorado (Saturday at 8 P.M.)
Arizona State is a spread football team whose strategy to win has been to put up enormous offensive numbers and give up slightly less enormous numbers on defense. They are 5-1, so that strategy has been working pretty well so far.
The Sun Devils' starting quarterback suffered a knee injury in this past week's game against USC. The backup came in and suffered a season-ending foot injury. They also lost a quarterback to a knee injury during fall camp. Manny Wilkins the starting quarterback is questionable for this game. He has not been taking first team reps in practice, and, even if he does play, he won't be close to 100%.
So it looks like they will be starting a fourth-string true freshman who threw one pass in the USC game, which was intercepted. For an offense that relies on chucking the ball all over the field for success, this is a pretty devastating blow.
Colorado is a solid team which is averaging over 42 points a game while only giving up an average of around 17 points per game. They have five rushers with over 100 yards for the season, and their running game should wear down the Sun Devil Defense.
So, while I feel for the pressure that has been put on the young quarterback, Dillon Sterling-Cole, I have to take this opportunity to go with the Buffaloes.
I'm running with Ralph!
Game I would most like to see live: Ohio State at Wisconsin
I'm still staying out of the SEC. The Big 10 (I can't make my "IG" look like a 10) is looking like the top conference this year.
Both teams play physical football. The Buckeyes are looking to continue their undefeated season, and the Badgers are looking to rebound from their loss to Michigan last week.
A Big 10 Conference game in Camp Randall Stadium, with two of the top teams in the country, should be quite the environment on Saturday.
There you have it: Tigers, Jayhawks, Crimson Tide, Bulls, and Buffaloes. Is it Saturday yet?
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Week 6
The Professor is back! After two winning weeks, Week 5 was a step backwards. I went 2-3, with my picks of Ohio State and South Florida winning but my picks of Duke, Akron, and Arizona State losing. Every week cannot be a winning week; I just need more of those than losing weeks.
I am now 12-12-1. Not terrible, but not the record I had hoped for after five weeks. I am seeing just how unpredictable college football can be.
So, to get back on my winning ways, here are my Week 6 picks:
Once again, the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17711200/college-football-full-list-week-6-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Western Kentucky -3 at Louisiana Tech (Thursday at 8 P.M.)
This week's matchup of two non-Power 5 Conference teams features a Conference USA matchup between the Hilltoppers and Bulldogs, and it takes place on a Thursday night.
The Hilltoppers high-powered spread offense has put up big scores in their three wins, and, in their week two loss at Alabama, they put up over 200 passing yards. In their one point loss against Vanderbilt, they put up over 200 passing yards and over 200 passing yards.
In their loss to Texas Tech, another high-powered spread offense, in Week 3, the Bulldogs defense gave up 470 passing yards and 196 rushing yards. In their Week 4 loss to Middle Tennessee State, the Bulldog defense gave up 356 yards in the air and 197 yards on the ground.
Louisiana Tech's spread offense put up big yards and points in both of those games, but it wasn't enough to keep pace with their opponent's firepower.
This will be a high scoring game. Bet the over. Past history leads me to believe that Louisiana Tech will come up on the short end of that shootout. Go Tops!
Army +4 at Duke (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
For the third time in six weeks, I'm going with the men from West Point.
Behind an extremely talented offensive line, the triple option running game of Army has run all over every opponent they have played. Even in their overtime loss to Buffalo, this past week, they continued their trend of picking up at least 300 rushing yards per game every game, while going above 400 in half of their games.
The Black Knights have dominated possession and have no turnovers in three of their four games.
Duke is coming off of a bad loss against Virginia, in which they turned the ball over four times in the fourth quarter. In fact, they have struggled with turnovers all year, losing 17 turnovers in the first five games of this season, including five lost fumbles in Week 1 agains North Carolina Central.
The Blue Devil defense gave up over 200 yards rushing against Wake Forest and Notre Dame and over 100 against Northwestern. The Duke defense features two sophomores on the defensive line and a freshman and a sophomore at linebacker. The consistent pounding of the Army running game should wear down these defenders throughout the game.
Duke lost a big part of its game when redshirt senior quarterback Thomas Sirk tore his Achilles Tendon during offseason workouts. Redshirt freshman, Daniel Jones, who took Sirk's place, has struggled, throwing six touchdowns and eight interceptions so far.
So I'm putting on the knight's helmet once again this week!
Michigan -26.5 at Rutgers (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
Michigan definitively proved that they are a top team with their hard-fought victory over eighth-ranked Wisconsin this past weekend.
Rutgers performance this past weekend is a big reason why I am picking Michigan this week. The Scarlet Knights showed that their hopelessness against top talent with a 58-0 loss to Ohio State. They put up only 116 yards of total offense while giving up 669 yards of total offense to Ohio State, and they were out-possessed by over 17 minutes
Fans of the two teams might not like to hear it, but I see a lot of similarities between Michigan and Ohio State this season. Both teams are among the best in the nation, both are led by an accurate and powerful quarterback, both teams have a bruising running back, and both teams have stifling defenses. Plus, Michigan's defense happens to have Jabril Peppers, one of the most physically talented players in the country and a definite game changer.
I don't see Rutgers faring any better this week than last week, so it's the Maize and Blue for me!
Washington -8 at Oregon (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
The Washington Huskies should be extremely confident after their 44-6 shellacking of my beloved Stanford Cardinal this past Friday. They proved they are for real, and Jake Browning cemented his position as an elite quarterback.
The Huskies are 5-0, and Browning has 17 touchdowns to two interceptions. Other than a seven point victory at Arizona, Washington has won their other four games by a margin of at least 30 points.
Oregon, on the other hand, has no momentum. The Ducks, who were ranked in the preseason poll, are on a three game losing streak.
Without their traditional high-flying passing attack, the Ducks have had to largely depend on several running backs, highlighted by the talented Royce Freeman. The Huskies showed their dominance against the running game, by shutting down Stanford's ground game, led by Heisman Trophy candidate (and acquaintance of mine) Christian McCaffrey. With a mediocre pass game and their running game stifled, I don't see how Oregon can beat a strong Wisconsin team.
The Huskies have so far shown that this is their year, while the Ducks have shown just the opposite. The Huskies are going Duck hunting down in Eugene!
Georgia -7.5 at South Carolina (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
Georgia cleared running back Nick Chubb to play in the game against South Carolina, and, with that information, Georgia becomes an attractive pick this weekend.
Game I would most like to see live: Florida State at Miami
Tennessee at Texas A&M and Alabama at Arkansas definitely should be incredible environments featuring arguably the top four teams in the SEC and fans who live and breathe college football, but I am not going to be carried away by SEC bias this weekend.
Miami is 4-0 and ranked tenth in the country. Hurricane fever has reached a fevered pitch far above the normal mania. Florida State is coming off a last second loss to North Carolina. They are looking to turn their season around, and they definitely have the talent to do so.
I have witnessed how much of a football town Miami is and how much Miamians love their Hurricanes. An Uber driver, who was a University of Miami alum, recently told me that he didn't care about any of the other games, all that mattered to him was beating Florida State. This rivalry is intense.
The newly renovated Hard Rock Stadium is an amazing place to watch a football game.
Here's the kicker: I will actually be at Hard Rock Stadium for the game on Saturday! In my last weekend of my internship at the Miami Herald, my editor, Jorge Rojas, is letting me help cover the game.
There you have it. Five road teams from five different conferences (technically four and one independent). Let the games begin!
I am now 12-12-1. Not terrible, but not the record I had hoped for after five weeks. I am seeing just how unpredictable college football can be.
So, to get back on my winning ways, here are my Week 6 picks:
Once again, the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17711200/college-football-full-list-week-6-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone.
Western Kentucky -3 at Louisiana Tech (Thursday at 8 P.M.)
This week's matchup of two non-Power 5 Conference teams features a Conference USA matchup between the Hilltoppers and Bulldogs, and it takes place on a Thursday night.
The Hilltoppers high-powered spread offense has put up big scores in their three wins, and, in their week two loss at Alabama, they put up over 200 passing yards. In their one point loss against Vanderbilt, they put up over 200 passing yards and over 200 passing yards.
In their loss to Texas Tech, another high-powered spread offense, in Week 3, the Bulldogs defense gave up 470 passing yards and 196 rushing yards. In their Week 4 loss to Middle Tennessee State, the Bulldog defense gave up 356 yards in the air and 197 yards on the ground.
Louisiana Tech's spread offense put up big yards and points in both of those games, but it wasn't enough to keep pace with their opponent's firepower.
This will be a high scoring game. Bet the over. Past history leads me to believe that Louisiana Tech will come up on the short end of that shootout. Go Tops!
Army +4 at Duke (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
For the third time in six weeks, I'm going with the men from West Point.
Behind an extremely talented offensive line, the triple option running game of Army has run all over every opponent they have played. Even in their overtime loss to Buffalo, this past week, they continued their trend of picking up at least 300 rushing yards per game every game, while going above 400 in half of their games.
The Black Knights have dominated possession and have no turnovers in three of their four games.
Duke is coming off of a bad loss against Virginia, in which they turned the ball over four times in the fourth quarter. In fact, they have struggled with turnovers all year, losing 17 turnovers in the first five games of this season, including five lost fumbles in Week 1 agains North Carolina Central.
The Blue Devil defense gave up over 200 yards rushing against Wake Forest and Notre Dame and over 100 against Northwestern. The Duke defense features two sophomores on the defensive line and a freshman and a sophomore at linebacker. The consistent pounding of the Army running game should wear down these defenders throughout the game.
Duke lost a big part of its game when redshirt senior quarterback Thomas Sirk tore his Achilles Tendon during offseason workouts. Redshirt freshman, Daniel Jones, who took Sirk's place, has struggled, throwing six touchdowns and eight interceptions so far.
So I'm putting on the knight's helmet once again this week!
Michigan -26.5 at Rutgers (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
Michigan definitively proved that they are a top team with their hard-fought victory over eighth-ranked Wisconsin this past weekend.
Rutgers performance this past weekend is a big reason why I am picking Michigan this week. The Scarlet Knights showed that their hopelessness against top talent with a 58-0 loss to Ohio State. They put up only 116 yards of total offense while giving up 669 yards of total offense to Ohio State, and they were out-possessed by over 17 minutes
Fans of the two teams might not like to hear it, but I see a lot of similarities between Michigan and Ohio State this season. Both teams are among the best in the nation, both are led by an accurate and powerful quarterback, both teams have a bruising running back, and both teams have stifling defenses. Plus, Michigan's defense happens to have Jabril Peppers, one of the most physically talented players in the country and a definite game changer.
I don't see Rutgers faring any better this week than last week, so it's the Maize and Blue for me!
Washington -8 at Oregon (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
The Washington Huskies should be extremely confident after their 44-6 shellacking of my beloved Stanford Cardinal this past Friday. They proved they are for real, and Jake Browning cemented his position as an elite quarterback.
The Huskies are 5-0, and Browning has 17 touchdowns to two interceptions. Other than a seven point victory at Arizona, Washington has won their other four games by a margin of at least 30 points.
Oregon, on the other hand, has no momentum. The Ducks, who were ranked in the preseason poll, are on a three game losing streak.
Without their traditional high-flying passing attack, the Ducks have had to largely depend on several running backs, highlighted by the talented Royce Freeman. The Huskies showed their dominance against the running game, by shutting down Stanford's ground game, led by Heisman Trophy candidate (and acquaintance of mine) Christian McCaffrey. With a mediocre pass game and their running game stifled, I don't see how Oregon can beat a strong Wisconsin team.
The Huskies have so far shown that this is their year, while the Ducks have shown just the opposite. The Huskies are going Duck hunting down in Eugene!
Georgia -7.5 at South Carolina (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
Georgia cleared running back Nick Chubb to play in the game against South Carolina, and, with that information, Georgia becomes an attractive pick this weekend.
Whether you consider their last minute Hail Mary loss to Tennessee bad luck or poor defense, I am pretty sure the Bulldogs are angry, motivated, and hungry for a win.
I think Georgia one of the most talented teams in the SEC, even though their record might not show it. While I don't think Chubb is 100% healthy, he can still put up big numbers. His 22 rushing yards and two touchdowns against North Carolina showed what he is capable of doing. I also think their quarterback, Jacob Eason is extremely talented, even though he after five games, he has fewer than 1,000 passing yards, a 53.6 completion percentage, and 7 touchdowns to 4 interceptions; he just hasn't broken through yet.
Whatever the reason is, they have not performed to their potential so far this season, but I believe that a team with that much talent is bound to break out.
South Carolina, on the other hand has looked much worse in their three SEC losses this season (they did beat a weak Vanderbilt team in Week 1). In those three games, frankly, their only strong opponent was Texas A&M, and the Gamecocks looked anemic on offense, going 12/45 (26.7%) on third downs. Their quarterback has 567 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception through five games. He hasn't even taken all the snaps. It's quite hard to win a game with out at least a mediocre quarterback.
I see a sizable imbalance of talent between these two teams, and this imbalance is why I'm taking the Bulldogs of UGA!
(Plus, how can you not go for somebody named Chubb, so much fun to say)
Game I would most like to see live: Florida State at Miami
Tennessee at Texas A&M and Alabama at Arkansas definitely should be incredible environments featuring arguably the top four teams in the SEC and fans who live and breathe college football, but I am not going to be carried away by SEC bias this weekend.
Miami is 4-0 and ranked tenth in the country. Hurricane fever has reached a fevered pitch far above the normal mania. Florida State is coming off a last second loss to North Carolina. They are looking to turn their season around, and they definitely have the talent to do so.
I have witnessed how much of a football town Miami is and how much Miamians love their Hurricanes. An Uber driver, who was a University of Miami alum, recently told me that he didn't care about any of the other games, all that mattered to him was beating Florida State. This rivalry is intense.
The newly renovated Hard Rock Stadium is an amazing place to watch a football game.
Here's the kicker: I will actually be at Hard Rock Stadium for the game on Saturday! In my last weekend of my internship at the Miami Herald, my editor, Jorge Rojas, is letting me help cover the game.
There you have it. Five road teams from five different conferences (technically four and one independent). Let the games begin!
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Week 5
The Professor is back! I am coming off my second consecutive
3-2 week and feeling good.
My overall record for the season is now 10-9-1, which
means...I am back in the black! (no relation to the great AC/DC song Back in
Black)
The early season rust is off, and I am all go from here. So
here are my Week 5 picks:
Again, the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17650637/college-football-full-list-week-5-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook
All times are Eastern Time Zone
Rutgers +38 at Ohio
State (Saturday at noon)
Despite my hesitancy to pick games with extremely large
spreads, Ohio State has been dominant enough for me to warrant taking them this
week.
The Buckeyes have looked strong on both offense and defense,
blowing out Bowling Green and Tulsa by 67 and 45 points. In their first major
test of the season, Ohio State won decisively over Oklahoma. J.T. Barrett is
one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country and is playing behind an
offensive line that has allowed two sacks through three games. In those three
games, the Buckeyes have only turned the ball over twice and have forced 11
turnovers for a nation-leading +9 turnover margin.
In their two games against Power-5 Conference teams, the
Scarlet Knights of Rutgers have averaged just ten points of offense while
giving up an average of 31 points. Rutgers has fewer than 200 passing yards in
both of those games. They are facing a defense that has given up an average of
102.3 rush yards per game. Rutgers won't be able to pass or rush the ball and
the Buckeyes will score early and often.
The fans at the Horseshoe in Columbus will have a treat.
I'll take the Buckeyes and give all of the points. O-H...I-O!
Virginia +3.5 at Duke
(Saturday at 12:30 P.M.)
Duke's victory over Notre Dame was quite impressive. After
earlier bad losses against Wake Forest and Northwestern, the question is how
much can we read into the Blue Devils' victory over the Irish.
I think Duke is a solid team, but this prediction has more
to do with the ineptitude that Virginia has shown so far this season. There
were high hopes in Charlottesville with the hiring of Bronco Mendenhall, but
those hopes were quickly tempered after a Week 1 loss to FCS foe Richmond.
The Cavaliers looked equally inept in their losses against
Oregon and Connecticut. They were able to get their first victory this past
week over Central Michigan, but UVA is still quite weak and have turned the
ball over eight times.
That Virginia team is going up against a Duke team that just
got a huge boost of confidence after beating Notre Dame. David Cutcliffe has
completely turned around Duke football. The Blue Devils have had games this
season where they have struggled either running the ball or passing the ball,
but, in those games, the other part of the offense took over and did well.
Duke's defense has not been greatly outplayed in any of their games.
A team that can move the ball and score has a distinct
advantage (understatement) over a team that cannot do so. I'm taking Duke to
give the home fans something to cheer about at Wallace Wade Stadium on
Saturday!
Akron -7 at Kent
State (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
This week's match-up between two non-Power 5 Conference
teams features two teams from the Mid-American Conference, better known as the
MAC. Both campuses are in Northeast Ohio. In fact, according to Google Maps, it
takes under a half an hour to drive the 16.5 miles between the two campuses.
The Golden Flashes (lightning?) of Kent State lost in
quadruple overtime to an FCS team (albeit a strong FCS team) North Carolina
A&T. The offense has struggled. They have turned the ball over in all four
of their games. They have only put up 300 yards of offense in their one win (in
Week 2 over Monmouth); they only put up 275 total yards of offense in a
quadruple overtime game against an FCS opponent.
Other than a bad loss against a strong Wisconsin team, the
Zips of Akron have looked strong on offense, averaging over 52 points a game.
The Zips have three strong running backs. They have looked good the past two
weeks with a dominating win over Marshall and a seven point loss against a
strong Appalachian State team.
Zippy the Kangaroo is one of my favorite college mascots,
and I'm going with Zippy this week!
South Florida
(even) at Cincinnati (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
With their top quarterback, running back, and receiver
returning this season, USF was poised for a strong offensive season. They are
averaging 46 points per game, and put up 35 points this past week against a
strong Florida State defense. With an offense that has 10 of 11 starters who
are either juniors or seniors, I like their experience and maturity. Plus, the
eight turnovers that they have forced has helped them get to 3-1.
Cincinnati has looked good this season also. They have nice
wins over Purdue and Miami (Ohio), but there offense has yet to impress me. In
their game against the University of Houston, a strong offensive team, the
Bearcats got significantly out-earned in every offensive category and got
out-possessed by over 16 minutes.
While I don't think South Florida is on the same level as
Houston, I do think the Bulls offense will prove too much for the Bearcats,
leading the way to a South Florida victory. I'm running with the Bulls this
week!
Arizona State +8
at USC (Saturday at 8:30 P.M.)
After opening the 2016 season with high hopes, the Trojans
have been a huge disappointment to their fans. They had a nice win over Utah
State in Week 2, but, in their other three games (all against Power 5
conference teams), USC is averaging 14.3 points per game and lost by an average
margin of 22.3 points. Their fans, players, and coaches are frustrated.
On the other hand, Arizona State has been one of the most
(offensively) impressive teams this season. They are 4-0, averaging 48.8 points
per game. Their quarterback Manny Wilkins and running back Kalen Ballage have
had their way with every defense that they have faced.
USC's slide continues as they are unable to keep up with
Arizona State. Sparky lights it up at the Coliseum!
Game I would most like to watch live: #3 Louisville at #5 Clemson
Louisville and Lamar Jackson are the team to watch so far
this year. Jackson is a defender-hurdling, touchdown-scoring (both rushing and
passing) machine who has gone from relative anonymity to Heisman frontrunner in
under a month. Louisville has gained a lot more attention and credibility after
their decisive victory over Florida State.
The Cardinals are taking on the Tigers at a stadium known as
Death Valley, a place as foreboding for those who venture there as its name
implies. Both teams come in undefeated and ranked in the top five and with
sky-high expecations. Clemson's only loss last season came in the national
championship game to Alabama and their quarterback Deshaun Watson is a Heisman
contender.
Two great teams, a great stadium, and enthusiastic fans (I
expect a good number of Louisville fans to make the 439 mile journey for this
game) should make the environment there off the charts on Saturday evening.
Here we go again!
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Week 4
The Professor is back! I had my first winning week in Week 3, going 3-2. My picks of Houston, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M won, and my picks of Marshall and Florida lost.
That brings my season record to 7-7-1. I am not in the black yet. Also, most against the spread bets are -110, meaning I would have to bet $11 to win $10, so I have to have a record higher than .550 in order to make money.
I have improved (barely) each week so far, and I will try to continue that trend, so here are my Week 4 picks:
(Once again the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17594462/college-football-full-list-week-4-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook) and all times are Eastern Time Zone
This week's game of two non-Power 5 conference team features an FBS independent and a team from the MAC.
That brings my season record to 7-7-1. I am not in the black yet. Also, most against the spread bets are -110, meaning I would have to bet $11 to win $10, so I have to have a record higher than .550 in order to make money.
I have improved (barely) each week so far, and I will try to continue that trend, so here are my Week 4 picks:
(Once again the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17594462/college-football-full-list-week-4-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook) and all times are Eastern Time Zone
Penn State + 18.5 at Michigan (Saturday at 3:30)
While it is still early this season, Michigan looks like it is for real this season and will contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Wolverines won their first three games decisively. Quarterback Wilton Speight's arm is strong and accurate. Their defense starts two juniors and nine seniors. I really like a team with experience and maturity, and it doesn't get much better than Michigan's defense. The Wolverines are explosive and skillful. They look strong on film. Plus, Jim Harbaugh knows how win games.
Penn State is not a bad team, but redshirt sophomore quarterback Trace McSorely hasn't looked particularly strong in his year starting. Also, Penn Stats has turned the ball over eight times in the first three weeks of play, which is definitely a troubling sign.
The maize and blue will just be too much. Wolves over lions.
Howl!
The maize and blue will just be too much. Wolves over lions.
Howl!
Army -14 at Buffalo (Saturday at 7)
I'm high on Army this year. I think the triple option (when
run well, is a strong offense (plus, it looks cool). Army has five different
players with at least 100 rushing yards on the season. They have at least 300
rushing yards in each of their first three games (over 400 in their Week 3 win
over UTEP). A big reason for this is their offensive line, which has two
seniors and three juniors.
Buffalo lost in Week 1 against FCS team Albany. The Bulls
put up just 16 points in that matchup. They had four turnovers in that game (3
interceptions and one lost fumble). After a bye, the scored only 14 points in a
loss against Nevada.
Army will wear down the Buffalo defense, and the Buffalo
offense won't be able to keep up.
I'm putting on the knight's helmet for this
game!
Nebraska -7 at Northwestern (Saturday at 7:30)
Nebraska impressed me in their upset win over Oregon this past weekend. The Cornhusker defense held the potent Duck offense to 32 points. In fact, the defense has been strong in all three of their wins. They have forced 8 turnovers. Tommy Armstrong Jr. is a strong dual-threat quarterback. He has seven passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns.
Northwestern has struggled so far this season. After opening with a one-point loss to Western Michigan, the Wildcats then lost to FCS Illinois State before beating Duke this past weekend. They have averaged just over 17 points on offense against three weak teams.
Northwestern has struggled and Nebraska has looked strong.
Pass the corn!
Oklahoma State +9.5 at Baylor (Saturday at 7:30)
Oklahoma State has moved past the last-second Hail Mary loss to Central Michigan (on a play that shouldn't have happened), and Mike Gundy has the offense firing again. The cowboys had over 600 yards of offense in their win against a strong Pittsburgh team, and Mason Rudolph looks strong in his third year as starting quarterback for Oklahoma State.
On the other hand, despite their 3-0 record, Baylor has looked weak. They've gotten off to slow starts and relied on strong finishes against overmatched SMU and Rice teams to secure solid victories. I've seen some clips from their games, and the Bears do not seem ferocious this year.
I predict it will be a very high scoring game.
I'll take the points and the ten-gallon hat!
Louisville -25 at Marshall (Saturday at 8)
I have joined the Louisville/Lamar Jackson bandwagon. Their
domination of Florida State this past weekend was impressive. Not only did they
score 63 points against the #2 team in the nation, but they held the Seminoles
to just 20 points, with one touchdown coming on a punt return.
Lamar Jackson is incredibly talented. The Cardinals have put
up 60+
points in each of their first three games and has an average winning
margin of over 44 points,
After beating an FCS opponent Week 1 and having a bye Week
2, the Thundering Herd gave up 65 points and over 500 yards to Akron. Marshall
also turned the ball over four times.
This is going to be a rough day for the fans in Huntington,
West Virginia.
Give me the Cardinal head!
Game I would most like to see live: Arkansas at Texas A&M
Any game at Kyle Field is a can't miss event. On Saturday, the Home of the 12th Man will host two SEC West rivals. Both teams are ranked and both are 3-0. The always energetic crowd will be even more excited for this game.
The Stadium is always full of extremely passionate fans. This is a game not to miss.
And we're off!
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Week 3
The Professor is back!
I had another mediocre week in Week 2. I went 2-2-1 (I was sitting high after I started the day 2-0). My picks of Army and USC won; my picks of Akron and Texas Tech lost, and my pick of Alabama was a push (due to a fourth quarter lost fumble by the Tide).
I am now 4-5-1 overall this season. Not a great record, but not one that puts me deep in the hole either. As coaches are like to say, it's a long season.
Speaking of which, I want to disclose that I am not actually betting money on these games, but not because I don't have confidence in my picks, simply because I don't have the money to bet. If I did, I definitely would
I am going to blame my mediocre first two weeks on beginner's rust. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
With all of that being said, here are my Week 3 picks:
Once again the lines are from Westgate Casino, posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17536383/college-football-full-list-week-3-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
Houston -7 vs. Cincinnati (Thursday at 7:30 P.M.)
Who says college football has to be played on a Saturday?
I was holding off on this game, but once it was announced that Greg Ward Jr. would be starting, it became a desirable option. The cougars have won 15 consecutive games with Ward as starting quarterback. Houston looked extremely impressive in their upset of #3 Oklahoma in Week 1. They played extremely physical football and they were strong on offense, defense, and special teams.
Houston lost only one game last season and finished the season with a win over a strong Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
The Cincinnati gave up over 300 yards of offense to Tennessee-Martin in their Week 1 victory and over 500 yards of offense to Purdue in their Week 2 victory.
I don't see the Bearcats being able to matchup with the Cougars in this game.
I'm taking the Coogs and predicting a decisive victory!
Marshall -16.5 vs. Akron (Saturday at noon)
This is my weekly game between two non-Power 5 Conference FBS teams. There's not a big sample size of information to draw upon for Marshall this season. They had a bye Week 1 and beat Morgan State 62-0 in their first game. Even against a school like Morgan State, that zero is impressive. Often times, top FBS teams will give up one field goal or a touchdown to an FCS opponent.
Marshall went 10-3 last season and 13-1 the year before that. I like a program with that recent winning trend.
After Akron's Week 1 47-24 victory over the Virginia Military Institute, the Zips looked awful in their 54-10 loss against Wisconsin. Akron didn't do much on offense and looked extremely weak on offense, and, while I don't think Marshall is quite at the caliber of Wisconsin, I don't see this game going Akron's way.
Plus, Marshall is at home, and I believe home-field advantage is worth a couple points.
I'm taking the Herd and giving the points!
Texas Tech -11.5 vs. Louisiana Tech (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
I went with Texas Tech last week and lost that game, but Texas Tech put up 55 points and 612 yards in that effort. However, they gave up 69 points and 652 yards to Arizona State. That's a bad defensive sign when your offense scores 55 points and you lose the game by two touchdowns. Arizona State's Kalen Ballage. With the Red Raider defense going up against a less talented offense, I think they will be able to come up with a few stops.
There offense will continue to put up big numbers, so I feel comfortable giving the 11.5 points to the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech in this game.
Texas Tech wins the battle of the Techs!
Texas A&M -2.5 vs Auburn (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
The Aggies of Texas A&M have surprised me by how strong they have looked through their first two games. I was quite surprised by their Week 1 overtime upset of a highly touted UCLA team. The three interceptions that the defense came up with in that game helped put A&M over the edge.
The Aggies defense, led by defensive end Myles Garret, who is currently #1 on Mel Kiper Jr.'s NFL Draft Big Board, has looked strong. I think Trevor Knight has found a home in college station, and Kevin Sumlin is a great coach who knows how to coach a strong offense to victory.
Auburn put up only 262 yards and 13 points in a close Week 1 lost against second-ranked Clemson., and Sean White and Jeremy Johnson each threw an interception for Auburn in that game. I think Texas A&M's defense might actually be better than Clemson's.
I have the Aggies winning a low scoring game.
Gig'em!
Florida -36 vs. North Texas (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
I normally try to avoid games with extremely large spreads because they can be unpredictable, but I believe the Florida offense has enough skill and power to cover this line. While the Gators struggled in the first half against UMASS in Week 1, I think a large part of that was rust and/or nerves.
The Gators looked extremely impressive in their Week 2 45-7 victory over Kentucky.
I really like experience and the Gators are returning eight starters each on offense and defense.
North Texas only won one game last season, and given the talent on Florida's team, it could be a long night for North Texas.
I'm not sure what a Mean Green is, but, regardless, I don't think they will be mean enough to prevent being steamrolled by the Gators.
Chomp! Chomp!
Game I would most like to see live: College Gameday will be making it's first ever trip to Louisville for the Cardinals match-up against second-ranked Florida State, and I'd like to be joining them. What Lamar Jackson has done in just the first two weeks of the season is incredible, launching him from relative obscurity into a legitimate Heisman contender. The upstart Cardinals against the powerhouse Seminoles should be an exciting match-up that produces plenty of highlights.
Let the games begin!
I had another mediocre week in Week 2. I went 2-2-1 (I was sitting high after I started the day 2-0). My picks of Army and USC won; my picks of Akron and Texas Tech lost, and my pick of Alabama was a push (due to a fourth quarter lost fumble by the Tide).
I am now 4-5-1 overall this season. Not a great record, but not one that puts me deep in the hole either. As coaches are like to say, it's a long season.
Speaking of which, I want to disclose that I am not actually betting money on these games, but not because I don't have confidence in my picks, simply because I don't have the money to bet. If I did, I definitely would
I am going to blame my mediocre first two weeks on beginner's rust. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
With all of that being said, here are my Week 3 picks:
Once again the lines are from Westgate Casino, posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17536383/college-football-full-list-week-3-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook and all times are Eastern Time Zone
Houston -7 vs. Cincinnati (Thursday at 7:30 P.M.)
Who says college football has to be played on a Saturday?
I was holding off on this game, but once it was announced that Greg Ward Jr. would be starting, it became a desirable option. The cougars have won 15 consecutive games with Ward as starting quarterback. Houston looked extremely impressive in their upset of #3 Oklahoma in Week 1. They played extremely physical football and they were strong on offense, defense, and special teams.
Houston lost only one game last season and finished the season with a win over a strong Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
The Cincinnati gave up over 300 yards of offense to Tennessee-Martin in their Week 1 victory and over 500 yards of offense to Purdue in their Week 2 victory.
I don't see the Bearcats being able to matchup with the Cougars in this game.
I'm taking the Coogs and predicting a decisive victory!
Marshall -16.5 vs. Akron (Saturday at noon)
This is my weekly game between two non-Power 5 Conference FBS teams. There's not a big sample size of information to draw upon for Marshall this season. They had a bye Week 1 and beat Morgan State 62-0 in their first game. Even against a school like Morgan State, that zero is impressive. Often times, top FBS teams will give up one field goal or a touchdown to an FCS opponent.
Marshall went 10-3 last season and 13-1 the year before that. I like a program with that recent winning trend.
After Akron's Week 1 47-24 victory over the Virginia Military Institute, the Zips looked awful in their 54-10 loss against Wisconsin. Akron didn't do much on offense and looked extremely weak on offense, and, while I don't think Marshall is quite at the caliber of Wisconsin, I don't see this game going Akron's way.
Plus, Marshall is at home, and I believe home-field advantage is worth a couple points.
I'm taking the Herd and giving the points!
Texas Tech -11.5 vs. Louisiana Tech (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
I went with Texas Tech last week and lost that game, but Texas Tech put up 55 points and 612 yards in that effort. However, they gave up 69 points and 652 yards to Arizona State. That's a bad defensive sign when your offense scores 55 points and you lose the game by two touchdowns. Arizona State's Kalen Ballage. With the Red Raider defense going up against a less talented offense, I think they will be able to come up with a few stops.
There offense will continue to put up big numbers, so I feel comfortable giving the 11.5 points to the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech in this game.
Texas Tech wins the battle of the Techs!
Texas A&M -2.5 vs Auburn (Saturday at 7 P.M.)
The Aggies of Texas A&M have surprised me by how strong they have looked through their first two games. I was quite surprised by their Week 1 overtime upset of a highly touted UCLA team. The three interceptions that the defense came up with in that game helped put A&M over the edge.
The Aggies defense, led by defensive end Myles Garret, who is currently #1 on Mel Kiper Jr.'s NFL Draft Big Board, has looked strong. I think Trevor Knight has found a home in college station, and Kevin Sumlin is a great coach who knows how to coach a strong offense to victory.
Auburn put up only 262 yards and 13 points in a close Week 1 lost against second-ranked Clemson., and Sean White and Jeremy Johnson each threw an interception for Auburn in that game. I think Texas A&M's defense might actually be better than Clemson's.
I have the Aggies winning a low scoring game.
Gig'em!
Florida -36 vs. North Texas (Saturday at 7:30 P.M.)
I normally try to avoid games with extremely large spreads because they can be unpredictable, but I believe the Florida offense has enough skill and power to cover this line. While the Gators struggled in the first half against UMASS in Week 1, I think a large part of that was rust and/or nerves.
The Gators looked extremely impressive in their Week 2 45-7 victory over Kentucky.
I really like experience and the Gators are returning eight starters each on offense and defense.
North Texas only won one game last season, and given the talent on Florida's team, it could be a long night for North Texas.
I'm not sure what a Mean Green is, but, regardless, I don't think they will be mean enough to prevent being steamrolled by the Gators.
Chomp! Chomp!
Game I would most like to see live: College Gameday will be making it's first ever trip to Louisville for the Cardinals match-up against second-ranked Florida State, and I'd like to be joining them. What Lamar Jackson has done in just the first two weeks of the season is incredible, launching him from relative obscurity into a legitimate Heisman contender. The upstart Cardinals against the powerhouse Seminoles should be an exciting match-up that produces plenty of highlights.
Let the games begin!
Friday, September 9, 2016
Week 2
The professor is back! Okay, so my first week wasn't the best. I went 2-3 against the spread. My picks of Indiana and Alabama won, and my picks of Stanford, San Jose State, and Clemson lost.
I learned that I need to do more research. I went too much with my gut in Week 1 and did not do enough research.
I will try to do better, so here are my Week 2 picks:
The lines come from ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17487801/college-football-full-list-week-2-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook
All times are Eastern Time Zone
Army -8.5 vs. Rice (Saturday at noon)
This is my weekly match-up between two non-Power 5 conferences. Army only had 15 passing yards against Temple, but they picked up 329 yards on the ground. The Black Knights looked very strong against Temple, the defending American Athletic Conference. Army's 50% (7 for 14) third down conversion rate is a good sign. The triple option offense can wear down a defense and the Army offensive line starts three juniors and two seniors. The Rice defense gave up 649 yards and 46 points to Western Kentucky, and it's going to be another long day against Army. The Army Goes Rolling Along!
USC -16.5 vs. Utah State (Saturday at 2 P.M.)
On the flip side, I don't think USC is nearly as bad as their Week 1 score would make you think. They just played Alabama, and I think USC will be extra motivated to perform well after their blowout Week 1 loss. They have nine returning starters on offense including Juju Smith-Schuster, one of the most talented wide receivers in the country (and probably the one with the best first name). The Trojans are going up against an Aggie defense that is only returning three starters. I think the talent of USC will be too much for Utah State.
Alabama -28 vs. Western Kentucky (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
I predicted complete dominance by Alabama last week and dominate, they did. By far the most consistently dominant team I've seen over the past few years. Their offensive and defensive lines dominate both sides of the line of scrimmage. Alabama had an interception returned for a touchdown, forced two fumbles, and gave up fewer than 200 total offensive yards. Oh, and they also put up 52 points . All of this was against a talented USC team. I don't expect Western Kentucky to fare any better. I know I used forms of the word dominate several times, and while it may not good journalistic style, that's how good Alabama is. The Tide continues to roll!
Akron +24.5 vs Wisconsin (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Yes; Wisconsin's Week 1 upset against LSU was extremely impressive, and, no, I don't think I should read that much into Akron's victory over the Virginia Military Institute. I don't see Wisconsin putting up a ton of points against a stout Akron defense that was the 15th best in the FBS last season. Akron quarterback Tommy Woodson, in his third year as a starter, has consistently improved and should be able to score a couple times. I'm taking the points and going with Zippy!
Texas Tech +3 vs. Arizona State (Saturday at 10 P.M.)
Texas Tech puts up a ton of yards and scores a bunch of points. Their potent spread offense led by second year starter Patrick Mahomes II, who put up over 4,500 passing yards in 2015, should continue to do so against the Sun Devils. Even with a weak defense, a Red Raider team that is that strong offensively is a good bet against an Arizona State team that returns six starters from a defense that ranked 120th against the pass in 2015. Expect Texas Tech to win a shootout.
Game I would most like to see in person: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
A record crowd of 150,000 people are expected for this game, which will be held at Bristol Motor Speedway. Having been at sparsely attended games as well as sold-out games, I know the difference that a large energetic crowd can make to the atmosphere. Tennessee will be out to demonstrate that they are a top-10 team and that their week 1 nail-biter against Appalachian State was a fluke. A good game and a great crowd should make this the place to be on Saturday.
With that, it's time to see how I do.
I learned that I need to do more research. I went too much with my gut in Week 1 and did not do enough research.
I will try to do better, so here are my Week 2 picks:
The lines come from ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17487801/college-football-full-list-week-2-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook
All times are Eastern Time Zone
Army -8.5 vs. Rice (Saturday at noon)
This is my weekly match-up between two non-Power 5 conferences. Army only had 15 passing yards against Temple, but they picked up 329 yards on the ground. The Black Knights looked very strong against Temple, the defending American Athletic Conference. Army's 50% (7 for 14) third down conversion rate is a good sign. The triple option offense can wear down a defense and the Army offensive line starts three juniors and two seniors. The Rice defense gave up 649 yards and 46 points to Western Kentucky, and it's going to be another long day against Army. The Army Goes Rolling Along!
USC -16.5 vs. Utah State (Saturday at 2 P.M.)
On the flip side, I don't think USC is nearly as bad as their Week 1 score would make you think. They just played Alabama, and I think USC will be extra motivated to perform well after their blowout Week 1 loss. They have nine returning starters on offense including Juju Smith-Schuster, one of the most talented wide receivers in the country (and probably the one with the best first name). The Trojans are going up against an Aggie defense that is only returning three starters. I think the talent of USC will be too much for Utah State.
Alabama -28 vs. Western Kentucky (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
I predicted complete dominance by Alabama last week and dominate, they did. By far the most consistently dominant team I've seen over the past few years. Their offensive and defensive lines dominate both sides of the line of scrimmage. Alabama had an interception returned for a touchdown, forced two fumbles, and gave up fewer than 200 total offensive yards. Oh, and they also put up 52 points . All of this was against a talented USC team. I don't expect Western Kentucky to fare any better. I know I used forms of the word dominate several times, and while it may not good journalistic style, that's how good Alabama is. The Tide continues to roll!
Akron +24.5 vs Wisconsin (Saturday at 3:30 P.M.)
Yes; Wisconsin's Week 1 upset against LSU was extremely impressive, and, no, I don't think I should read that much into Akron's victory over the Virginia Military Institute. I don't see Wisconsin putting up a ton of points against a stout Akron defense that was the 15th best in the FBS last season. Akron quarterback Tommy Woodson, in his third year as a starter, has consistently improved and should be able to score a couple times. I'm taking the points and going with Zippy!
Texas Tech +3 vs. Arizona State (Saturday at 10 P.M.)
Texas Tech puts up a ton of yards and scores a bunch of points. Their potent spread offense led by second year starter Patrick Mahomes II, who put up over 4,500 passing yards in 2015, should continue to do so against the Sun Devils. Even with a weak defense, a Red Raider team that is that strong offensively is a good bet against an Arizona State team that returns six starters from a defense that ranked 120th against the pass in 2015. Expect Texas Tech to win a shootout.
Game I would most like to see in person: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
A record crowd of 150,000 people are expected for this game, which will be held at Bristol Motor Speedway. Having been at sparsely attended games as well as sold-out games, I know the difference that a large energetic crowd can make to the atmosphere. Tennessee will be out to demonstrate that they are a top-10 team and that their week 1 nail-biter against Appalachian State was a fluke. A good game and a great crowd should make this the place to be on Saturday.
With that, it's time to see how I do.
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