Week 4

The Professor is back! I had my first winning week in Week 3, going 3-2. My picks of Houston, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M won, and my picks of Marshall and Florida lost.

That brings my season record to 7-7-1. I am not in the black yet. Also, most against the spread bets are -110, meaning I would have to bet $11 to win $10, so I have to have a record higher than .550 in order to make money.

I have improved (barely) each week so far, and I will try to continue that trend, so here are my Week 4 picks:

(Once again the lines come from the Westgate Las Vegas Casino and are posted on ESPN.com: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17594462/college-football-full-list-week-4-odds-westgate-las-vegas-superbook) and all times are Eastern Time Zone

Penn State + 18.5 at Michigan (Saturday at 3:30)

     While it is still early this season, Michigan looks like it is for real this season and will contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff. 

     The Wolverines won their first three games decisively. Quarterback Wilton Speight's arm is strong and accurate. Their defense starts two juniors and nine seniors. I really like a team with experience and maturity, and it doesn't get much better than Michigan's defense. The Wolverines are explosive and skillful. They look strong on film. Plus, Jim Harbaugh knows how win games.

     Penn State is not a bad team, but redshirt sophomore quarterback Trace McSorely hasn't looked particularly strong in his year starting. Also, Penn Stats has turned the ball over eight times in the first three weeks of play, which is definitely a troubling sign.
    The maize and blue will just be too much. Wolves over lions.

Howl!

Army -14 at Buffalo (Saturday at 7)

     This week's game of two non-Power 5 conference team features an FBS independent and a team from the MAC. 

     I'm high on Army this year. I think the triple option (when run well, is a strong offense (plus, it looks cool). Army has five different players with at least 100 rushing yards on the season. They have at least 300 rushing yards in each of their first three games (over 400 in their Week 3 win over UTEP). A big reason for this is their offensive line, which has two seniors and three juniors.

     Buffalo lost in Week 1 against FCS team Albany. The Bulls put up just 16 points in that matchup. They had four turnovers in that game (3 interceptions and one lost fumble). After a bye, the scored only 14 points in a loss against Nevada.

     Army will wear down the Buffalo defense, and the Buffalo offense won't be able to keep up. 

I'm putting on the knight's helmet for this game!

Nebraska -7 at Northwestern (Saturday at 7:30)

     Nebraska impressed me in their upset win over Oregon this past weekend. The Cornhusker defense held the potent Duck offense to 32 points. In fact, the defense has been strong in all three of their wins. They have forced 8 turnovers.  Tommy Armstrong Jr. is a strong dual-threat quarterback.       He has seven passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns.

Northwestern has struggled so far this season. After opening with a one-point loss to Western Michigan, the Wildcats then lost to FCS Illinois State before beating Duke this past weekend. They have averaged just over 17 points on offense against three weak teams.

     Northwestern has struggled and Nebraska has looked strong. 

Pass the corn!

Oklahoma State +9.5 at Baylor (Saturday at 7:30)

     Oklahoma State has moved past the last-second Hail Mary loss to Central Michigan (on a play that shouldn't have happened), and Mike Gundy has the offense firing again. The cowboys had over 600 yards of offense in their win against a strong Pittsburgh team, and Mason Rudolph looks strong in his third year as starting quarterback for Oklahoma State.

     On the other hand, despite their 3-0 record, Baylor has looked weak. They've gotten off to slow starts and relied on strong finishes against overmatched SMU and Rice teams to secure solid victories. I've seen some clips from their games, and the Bears do not seem ferocious this year.

     I predict it will be a very high scoring game. 

I'll take the points and the ten-gallon hat!

Louisville -25 at Marshall (Saturday at 8)

     I have joined the Louisville/Lamar Jackson bandwagon. Their domination of Florida State this past weekend was impressive. Not only did they score 63 points against the #2 team in the nation, but they held the Seminoles to just 20 points, with one touchdown coming on a punt return.

     Lamar Jackson is incredibly talented. The Cardinals have put up 60+

 points in each of their first three games and has an average winning margin of over 44 points,

     After beating an FCS opponent Week 1 and having a bye Week 2, the Thundering Herd gave up 65 points and over 500 yards to Akron. Marshall also turned the ball over four times.

     This is going to be a rough day for the fans in Huntington, West Virginia.

Give me the Cardinal head!

Game I would most like to see live: Arkansas at Texas A&M

    Any game at Kyle Field is a can't miss event. On Saturday, the Home of the 12th Man will host two SEC West rivals. Both teams are ranked and both are 3-0. The always energetic crowd will be even more excited for this game.

     The Stadium is always full of extremely passionate fans. This is a game not to miss.

And we're off!